AFB: NFL Odds For Week 2

Week 2’s Lineup with Kick-off Times and Television Coverage

AWAY VS. HOME
PITTSBURGH (56.9% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.76)
VS.
BALTIMORE (43.1% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.32)
MIAMI (56.7% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.76)
VS.
BUFFALO (43.3% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.31)
JACKSONVILLE (65.5% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.53)
VS.
WASHINGTON (34.5% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.90)
DALLAS (57.2% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.75)
VS.
TENNESSEE (42.8% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.34)
ARIZONA (55.4% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.81)
VS.
NEW YORK GIANTS (44.6% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.24)
NEW ENGLAND (58.6% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.71)
VS.
MINNESOTA (41.4% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.41)
NEW ORLEANS (57.9% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.73)
VS.
CLEVELAND (42.1% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.38)
ATLANTA (54.7% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.83)
VS.
CINCINNATI (45.3% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.21)
DETROIT (50.7% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.97)
VS.
CAROLINA (49.3% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.03)
ST. LOUIS (53.9% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.86)
VS.
TAMPA BAY (46.1% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.17)
SEATTLE (55.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.82)
VS.
SAN DIEGO (45.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.22)
HOUSTON (45.3% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.21)
VS.
OAKLAND (54.7% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.83)
NY JETS (45.8% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.18)
VS.
GREEN BAY (54.2% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.85)
KANSAS CITY (40.4% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.48)
VS.
DENVER (59.6% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.68)
CHICAGO (42.2% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.37)
VS.
SAN FRANCISCO (57.8% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.73)
PHILADELPHIA (42.7% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.34)
VS.
INDIANAPOLIS (57.3% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.75)

I am continuing my hobby of being an amateur line maker in sports. With my current career in horse racing I must be neutral in equine events. NFL odds making is in no way a conflict of interest within in my current profession. This provides an avenue to explore ideas. In making an odds line for NFL games, I am invoking the Pythagorean expectation with an exponent of 2.37 with the assumption of a home field advantage of 57.3% home team victors.1

Last edited (September 11, 2014, 19:00 – sps)

1Trading Bases: A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball (Not Necessarily in That Order

Update to Linemakers’ Performance

For the months of August 2013 to August 2014, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks.* The results are listed in the table below.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Los Alamitos TB’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 48 of 59 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
LRC – Los Alamitos TB 81.4% 59 48
LA – Los Alamitos 78.6% 439 345
FNO – Fresno 77.8% 63 49
MED – Meadowlands 77.8% 54 42
GG – Golden Gate 76.7% 1316 1009
SA – Santa Anita 76.5% 1104 845
AQU – Aqueduct 74.9% 981 735
ASD – Assiniboia Downs 74.7% 522 390
SR – Santa Rosa 73.8% 145 107
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 73.6% 849 625
PIM – Pimlico 73.5% 344 253
LRL – Laurel Park 72.5% 887 643
CD – Churchill Downs 72.0% 747 538
BSR – Barretts Sales Racing** 72.0% 132 95
LAD – Louisiana Downs 71.4% 899 642
EMD – Emerald Downs 71.4% 727 519
BEL – Belmont Park 71.2% 867 617
WRD – Will Rogers Downs 70.9% 261 185
CRC – Calder Racecourse 70.6% 1172 827
DMR – Del Mar 70.2% 526 369
MTH – Monmouth Park 69.9% 820 573
BHP – Hollywood Park** 69.9% 239 167
IND – Indiana Grand 69.8% 1075 750
BEU – Beulah Park** 69.7% 746 520
AP – Arlington Park 69.7% 1022 712
LS -Lone Star Park 69.0% 439 303
WO – Woodbine 68.5% 1468 1006
SAC – Sacramento 68.3% 41 28
TP – Turfway Park 68.0% 438 298
KD – Kentucky Downs 68.0% 50 34
FG – Fair Grounds 68.0% 737 501
GP – Gulfstream Park 67.6% 1783 1206
SAR- Saratoga 67.5% 689 465
KEE – Keeneland 67.4% 301 203
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 67.4% 763 514
PRM – Prairie Meadows 67.2% 641 431
HST – Hastings Racecourse 66.7% 474 316
TUP – Turf Paradise 66.5% 1082 720
MNR – Mountaineer Park 66.5% 2071 1378
FP – Fairmount Park 66.3% 481 319
FL – Finger Lakes 66.3% 1628 1079
NP – Northlands Park 66.0% 706 466
CT – Charles Town 65.3% 1817 1186
DED – Delta Downs 65.0% 837 544
OP – Oaklawn Park 64.9% 442 287
PEN – Penn National 64.8% 1769 1147
PID – Presque Isle Downs 64.8% 969 628
EVD – Evangeline Downs 64.2% 978 628
FE – Fort Erie 64.2% 438 281
CLS – Columbus 63.4% 227 144
RP – Remington Park 62.7% 681 427
RUI – Ruidoso Downs 62.6% 321 201
PLN – Pleasanton 62.5% 88 55
CBY – Canterbury Park 62.4% 684 427
PRX – Parx 62.4% 1785 1114
SUN – Sunland Park 62.1% 472 293
FER – Ferndale 62.0% 71 44
ARP – Arapahoe Park 61.6% 294 181
SUF – Suffolk Downs 60.8% 910 553
ZIA – Zia Park 60.2% 364 219
FON – Fonner Park 59.6% 225 134
DEL – Delaware Park 59.3% 740 439
TDN – Thistledowns 58.9% 1113 656
BTP – Belterra Park 58.8% 560 329
ELP – Ellis Park 56.7% 372 211
SRP – Sun Ray Park 56.7% 201 114
STK – Stockton 55.6% 36 20
HOU – Sam Houston Race Park 54.4% 294 160
ALB – The Downs at Albuquerque 52.7% 404 213
FMT – Tulsa Fair Meadows 49.4% 168 83
RET – Retama Park 48.2% 222 107
ATL – Atlantic City 40.0% 30 12

The new leader, Los Alamitos TB meet, retains the chart topper position. The mean – 67.0% – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite.

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

** – Tracks that have discontinued live meets.

AFB: NFL Odds For Week 1

Week 1’s Lineup with Kick-off Times and Television Coverage

AWAY VS. HOME
GREEN BAY (29.9% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 3.34)
VS.
SEATTLE (70.1% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.43)
NEW ORLEANS (48.5% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.44)
VS.
ATLANTA (51.5% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.69)
MINNESOTA (41.1% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.43)
VS.
ST. LOUIS (58.9% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.70)
CLEVELAND (39.7% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.52)
VS.
PITTSBURGH (60.3% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.66)
JACKSONVILLE (30.4% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 3.29)
VS.
PHILADELPHIA (69.6% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.44)
OAKLAND (41.4% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.41)
VS.
NY JETS (58.6% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.71)
CINCINNATI (38.5% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.60)
VS.
BALTIMORE (61.5% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.62)
BUFFALO (42.2% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.37)
VS.
CHICAGO (57.8% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.73)
WASHINGTON (45.1% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.22)
VS.
HOUSTON (54.9% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.82)
TENNESSEE (47.2% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.12)
VS.
KANSAS CITY (52.8% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.89)
NEW ENGLAND (39.9% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.51)
VS.
MIAMI (60.1% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.66)
CAROLINA (39.5% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.53)
VS.
TAMPA BAY (60.5% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.65)
SAN FRANCISCO (36.5% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.74)
VS.
DALLAS (63.5% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.58)
INDIANAPOLIS (48.5% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.06)
VS.
DENVER (51.5% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.94)
NY GIANTS (40.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.50)
VS.
DETROIT (60.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.67)
SAN DIEGO (43.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.32)
VS.
ARIZONA (57.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.75)

I am continuing my hobby of being an amateur line maker in sports. With my current career in horse racing I must be neutral in equine events. NFL odds making is in no way a conflict of interest within in my current profession. This provides an avenue to explore ideas. In making an odds line for NFL games, I am invoking the Pythagorean expectation with an exponent of 2.37 with the assumption of a home field advantage of 57.3% home team victors.

Last edited (September 2, 2014, 10:39 – sps)

1Trading Bases: A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball (Not Necessarily in That Order

Full Fields: Saturday, August 23rd

There are sixty-nine fields with at least 10 entrants (before scratches including Also Eligibles) on tap today.

AP Entries – 8, 9
ASD Entries – 4
CBY Entries – 2, 7, 8
CT Entries – 6
DEL Entries – 4, 7
DMR Entries – 5, 6, 7, 8, 10
ELP Entries – 7
EVD Entries – 1, 7, 8, 10
FL Entries – 4
GP Entries – 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11
IND Entries – 3, 5
LAD Entries – 8, 9
MNR Entries – 5
MTH Entries – 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
PEN Entries – 2, 4
PRX Entries – 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12
RP Entries – 2, 5, 6, 7, 8
SAR Entries – 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 12, 13, 14
SUF Entries – 7
TDN Entries – 8
TIM Entries – 7
WO Entries – 5, 6, 8, 10

In order to help horse racing fans find quality, full fields, the North American thoroughbred races categorized as ‘Full Fields’ will be listed daily and will have a minimum pre-scratch field size of ten and a minimum purse of $10,000.* (Hurdles, steeplechase, and point-to-points are not listed.)

*- DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

FFF: Full Fields Friday, August 22nd

There are fifty-one fields with at least 10 entrants (before scratches including Also Eligibles) on tap today.

ALB Entries – 5, 8
AP Entries – 7, 9
CBY Entries – 8
CT Entries – 2, 3, 6, 9
DMR Entries – 5, 7
ELP Entries – 7, 8
EVD Entries – 3, 8
FL Entries – 4
GP Entries – 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10
HST Entries – 7
IND Entries – 5, 6
LAD Entries – 4
MTH Entries – 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10
PEN Entries – 1, 9
RP Entries – 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
SAR Entries – 7, 10, 11
TDN Entries – 7
TIM Entries – 5
WO Entries – 4, 5, 7, 8, 9

In order to help horse racing fans find quality, full fields, the North American thoroughbred races categorized as ‘Full Fields’ will be listed daily and will have a minimum pre-scratch field size of ten and a minimum purse of $10,000.* (Hurdles, steeplechase, and point-to-points are not listed.)

*- DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.