Sophomore Graded Stakes Earnings

Preference criteria for entries into the Kentucky Derby are based upon a runner’s lifetime Graded Stakes Earnings.

The list below is the current top 100 earners for the sophomores through the LeComte Stakes run at the Fair Grounds earlier today.

RANK HORSE GRADED $
1 My Miss Aurelia (f) $1,350,000
2 Hansen $1,080,000
3 Union Rags $830,000
4 Stephanie’s Kitten (f) $800,446
5 Sabercat $600,000
6 Wrote (IRE) $540,000
7 Weemissfrankie (f) $522,120
8 Grace Hall (f) $510,000
9 Creative Cause $488,000
T-10 Dullahan $375,000
T-10 Liaison $375,000
12 Now I Know (f) $300,000
13 Killer Graces (f) $246,200
14 Excaper $240,736
15 Stopshoppingmaria (f) $240,000
16 Basmati $220,000
17 On Fire Baby (f) $211,729
18 Drill $210,000
19 Self Preservation (f) $183,040
20 Majestic City $170,000
21 Finale $153,345
22 Northern Passion (f) $153,345
23 Currency Swap $150,000
24 Rousing Sermon $140,000
25 Sweet Cat (f) $129,000
T-26 Animal Spirits $120,000
T-26 Brother Francis $120,000
T-26 Disposablepleasure (f) $120,000
T-26 Millionreasonswhy (f) $120,000
T-26 O’Prado Again $120,000
31 Mr. Bowling $115,848
32 Prospective $115,452
33 Charm the Maker (f) $110,400
34 Jack’s in the Deck $105,000
35 Gemologist $103,855
36 Longview Drive $102,000
37 Inny Minnie (f) $100,000
38 Farraaj (IRE) $99,000
39 Take Charge Indy $98,400
40 Vexor $91,000
T-41 Mighty Caroline (f) $90,000
T-41 Overdriven $90,000
T-41 Somali Lemonade (f) $90,000
T-41 State of Play $90,000
45 Trinniberg $84,500
46 Georgie’s Angel (f) $84,234
47 Heart of Destiny (f) $81,734
48 Motor City $78,383
49 Optimizer $78,375
50 Lucky Chappy (IRE) $75,000
51 Shared Property $73,700
52 Flashy Lassie (f) $69,145
53 Exfactor $67,748
54 She Digs Me $63,000
55 Believe You Can (f) $61,734
56 Seven Lively Sins $61,697
57 Power World $61,354
T-58 Alpha $60,000
T-58 More Than Love (f) $60,000
T-58 Out of Bounds $60,000
T-58 Pure Gossip (f) $60,000
T-58 Questing (f) $60,000
T-58 Sacristy (f) $60,000
T-58 Shkspeare Shaliyah $60,000
T-58 Sky Kingdom $60,000
T-58 So Brilliant $60,000
T-58 Stoney Fleece $60,000
T-58 Up (IRE) (f) $60,000
69 And Why Not (f) $58,253
70 Rocket Twentyone (f) $57,600
71 Candrea (f) $55,000
T-72 Judy the Beauty (f) $50,000
T-72 Say a Novena (f) $50,000
74 Lady Pecan (f) $49,906
T-75 Emerald Gold (f) $45,000
T-75 Empire Way $45,000
T-75 Yvete Sangalo (f) $45,000
78 Dayatthespa (f) $40,892
T-79 Putthebabiesdown (f) $40,000
T-79 Souper Speedy $40,000
T-79 Wildcat’s Smile (f) $40,000
82 Lockout $38,484
83 Hard Not to Like (f) $35,112
84 Z Dager $35,000
85 Laurie’s Rocket $34,500
86 Ever So Lucky $33,502
87 Goldrush Girl (f) $32,177
88 I’ll Have Another $31,000
T-89 Blingo $30,000
T-89 Bourbonstreetgirl (f) $30,000
T-89 Coalport $30,000
T-89 Miss Netta (f) $30,000
T-89 Right to Vote $30,000
T-89 River Kiss (f) $30,000
T-89 Ruler of Dubai $30,000
T-89 Stat $30,000
T-89 Team Six $30,000
98 Brigand $29,000
99 True Feelings (f) $27,500
100 Handsome Mike $26,000

(f) – denotes Filly


CashCall Futurity

The winner of next Saturday’s (17 Dec 2011) Grade I CashCall Futurity will be worth 29-to-1 in the 2012 Kentucky Derby (if past performances are any guide). In the first 30 runnings of the (formerly known) Hollywood Futurity from STALWART to COMMA TO THE TOP, only one victor went on to win the Run For The Roses. The outlier, REAL QUIET, was an underlay at post time odds of 8.4-to-1 on Derby Day. The runner-ups have fared better in the Kentucky Derby by producing three winners: ALYSHEBA, THUNDER GULCH, and GIACOMO.

Profiling the last 30 Futurity winners might point to value in itself. Despite only producing one Derby Winner from its winner circle, the Hollywood Futurity has historically been a very classy race. Historically projected, the odds that the Futurity winner was previously a graded-stakes-winner is 4-to-11. The odds that the winner was only previously graded-stakes-placed is 13-to-2 which is the same odds of the winner having no previous black type entering the race Saturday.

Not surprsingly, the majority of the Futurity wins had been precocious. The odds of winning the Futurity without having broken maiden within the first three starts is 14-to-1 (only FALI TIME-4 and REAL QUIET-7 took more than three starts to become winners). The past 13, 11, and 4 winners broke their maidens respectively in the first, second, and third starts.

The eligibility condition of the winners prior to the running of the Futurity were uneven distibuted between non-winners of one other-than and out-of-conditions. 5 were N1X, 11 were N2X, 5 N3X, 6 N4X, and 3 were out of conditions (all were essential non-winners of five other-than maiden, claiming, or starters). 1-to-5 odds that the winner will not have been elibile for an AN1X prior to Saturday’s contest.

Prior to the race, the winners started an average of 5.2 times ranging from 2 to 9. The winners had garnered an average of 2.7 victories ranging from 1 to 5.

The top three profile traits of the CashCall Futurity winners are:

  1. Previously Graded-Stakes-Placed
  2. Not Eligible for an Other-Than Condition
  3. Broke Maiden Within First Two Starts

Ten (10) of the original nominees from May deadline all meet these three profile traits. This isn’t to say that no one else can win but when entries are drawn on Wednesday look for the following names: BATTLE FORCE, BRIGAND, CREATIVE CAUSE, HANDSOME MIKE, I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, LONGVIEW DRIVE, MAJESTIC CITY, MIGHTY MONSOON, NIGHT TIDE, and SO BRILLIANT. Alternatively, look for a late supplement that meets these guidelines.


Stickman

Stickman‘ is slang among some horseplayers for ‘even-money’ odds. Even-money is 1-to-1 odds and often displayed on tote boards with a singular 1 (a.k.a stickman).

Today, Finger Lakes’ morning line maker set the odds for CRAFTY NETTIĀ in Race 6 at even-money — the lone stickman in North America today.

Let’s watch and see how close the post-time odds come to the morning line odds.