EuroTurf Races at Woodbine

Recently, Woodbine Racecourse has added EuroTurf races to their regular offering to the horsemen. EuroTurf is the marketing branding of clockwise turf sprints conducted on the E. P. Taylor turf course. Through today, there have been four of these events. At this time neither Equibase or Daily Racing Form past performance lines will indicated that these races were conducted in the clockwise direction.

Date Race # Distance Time Winner
6/18/2016 2 5 F :58.97 PERFECT FORESTER
6/17/2016 3 5.5 F 1:03.49 STREET TAIL
6/12/2016 2 5.5 F 1:03.70 LAST MINUTE LUCY
6/10/2016 1 5 F :57.71 FIREBALL MERLIN

Morning Line Performance of Juvenilve Races

For the months of June 2015 to May 2016 inclusive, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks for juvenile racing only.* The results are listed in the table below.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Fort Erie’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 1 of 1 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

The table is not a definitive test of the skill of the linemakers. The difficulty of making a morning line varies from track to track as a function of field size, track condition, and inclement weather. The data presented for the reader’s own interpretation.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
FE – Fort Erie 100.0% 1 1
HP – Hazel Park 100.0% 3 3
MED – Meadowlands 100.0% 2 2
ALB – The Downs at Albuquerque 85.7% 7 6
SR – Santa Rosa 83.3% 6 5
RP – Remington Park 82.2% 101 83
ARP – Arapahoe Park 81.8% 22 18
ASD – Assiniboia Downs 81.3% 16 13
FP – Fairmount Park 80.0% 5 4
LRC – Los Alamitos TB 80.0% 65 52
FL – Finger Lakes 78.8% 33 26
MVR – Mahoning Valley Racinge 78.3% 23 18
IND – Indiana Grand 77.6% 85 66
LS -Lone Star Park 77.1% 35 27
AQU – Aqueduct 75.9% 87 66
AP – Arlington Park 75.8% 33 25
BEL – Belmont Park 75.0% 100 75
GG – Golden Gate 73.8% 84 62
NP – Northlands Park 73.2% 56 41
EMD – Emerald Downs 72.0% 50 36
WO – Woodbine 71.7% 159 114
SA – Santa Anita 71.6% 81 58
FNO – Fresno 71.4% 7 5
MNR – Mountaineer Park 71.4% 21 15
KEE – Keeneland 71.0% 62 44
LRL – Laurel Park 70.8% 106 75
ELP – Ellis Park 70.4% 27 19
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 69.2% 26 18
PRM – Prairie Meadows 68.6% 35 24
TP – Turfway Park 68.4% 19 13
LAD – Louisiana Downs 67.6% 34 23
GPW – Gulfstream Park West 67.0% 115 77
EVD – Evangeline Downs 66.7% 45 30
RUI – Ruidoso Downs 66.7% 24 16
DMR – Del Mar 66.4% 122 81
PEN – Penn National 65.9% 44 29
CD – Churchill Downs 65.4% 107 70
FG – Fair Grounds 65.3% 72 47
DED – Delta Downs 64.6% 96 62
SAR- Saratoga 64.3% 70 45
CBY – Canterbury Park 64.1% 39 25
RET – Retama Park 63.9% 36 23
GP – Gulfstream Park 63.0% 181 114
PRX – Parx 63.0% 81 51
MTH – Monmouth Park 62.9% 35 22
CT – Charles Town 62.3% 69 43
ZIA – Zia Park 61.8% 68 42
KD – Kentucky Downs 61.5% 13 8
TDN – Thistledowns 60.0% 25 15
HST – Hastings Racecourse 58.3% 36 21
SUN – Sunland Park 57.1% 14 8
PLN – Pleasanton 55.6% 9 5
SRP – Sun Ray Park 55.6% 9 5
PID – Presque Isle Downs 54.5% 66 36
TUP – Turf Paradise 54.1% 37 20
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 53.5% 43 23
STK – Stockton 50.0% 4 2
BTP – Belterra Park 46.7% 15 7
DEL – Delaware Park 45.8% 59 27
SAC – Sacramento 40.0% 5 2
PIM – Pimlico 25.0% 4 1

Since this is the third or fourth time that I have reported the success of linemakers for just baby races, I won’t list a leader. The mean – 68.0% – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite.

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

Morning Line Performance on Turf Races

For the months of June 2015 to May 2016 inclusive, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks for turf racing only.* The results are listed in the table below. Races scheduled for the turf but subsequently moved to the main track are not included in this study.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Santa Rosa’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 30 of 35 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

The table is not a definitive test of the skill of the linemakers. The difficulty of making a morning line varies from track to track as a function of field size, track condition, and inclement weather. The data presented for the reader’s own interpretation.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
SR – Santa Rosa 85.7% 35 30
LAD – Louisiana Downs 75.0% 196 147
MNR – Mountaineer Park 74.9% 175 131
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 72.7% 245 178
CD – Churchill Downs 72.2% 115 83
GG – Golden Gate 70.9% 227 161
DMR – Del Mar 70.7% 181 128
FG – Fair Grounds 70.6% 221 156
KEE – Keeneland 70.2% 84 59
SA – Santa Anita 69.8% 298 208
LRL – Laurel Park 69.8% 324 226
BEL – Belmont Park 69.8% 400 279
FE – Fort Erie 69.6% 46 32
MTH – Monmouth Park 69.3% 199 138
LS -Lone Star Park 69.3% 137 95
AQU – Aqueduct 68.8% 112 77
AP – Arlington Park 68.3% 208 142
WO – Woodbine 67.8% 180 122
PEN – Penn National 67.7% 124 84
IND – Indiana Grand 67.5% 163 110
TUP – Turf Paradise 67.0% 218 146
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 66.7% 75 50
SAR- Saratoga 66.5% 203 135
PIM – Pimlico 66.0% 50 33
KD – Kentucky Downs 64.6% 48 31
GP – Gulfstream Park 64.0% 921 589
GPW – Gulfstream Park West 63.3% 199 126
CBY – Canterbury Park 60.3% 151 91
MED – Meadowlands 58.3% 60 35
ELP – Ellis Park 57.4% 115 66
EVD – Evangeline Downs 57.3% 75 43
RET – Retama Park 57.3% 89 51
RP – Remington Park 56.7% 104 59
DEL – Delaware Park 56.1% 139 78
PRX – Parx 54.5% 121 66
HOU – Sam Houston Race Park 51.9% 79 41
SUF – Suffolk Downs 50.0% 10 5
BTP – Belterra Park 48.1% 27 13

The current leader, Santa Rosa, also garnered the top position in 2015 for all races. The mean – 66.8% – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite. The mean has been holding steady for several months now. The mean for all races and not just turf events during the same period was 66.0%, so one can conclude that collectively linemakers do a better job at identifying the post time favourite in grass events than all events.

By one metric, Santa Rosa arguably produced the best morning line for 2015. They are likely to maintain their position on top of the list until at least when they start again during summer.

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

Morning Line Performance For Maiden Races

For the months of June 2015 to May 2016 inclusive, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks for maiden racing only.* The results are listed in the table below.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Ferndale’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 7 of 8 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

The table is not a definitive test of the skill of the linemakers. The difficulty of making a morning line varies from track to track as a function of field size, track condition, and inclement weather. The data presented for the reader’s own interpretation.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
FER – Ferndale 87.5% 8 7
ASD – Assiniboia Downs 78.1% 64 50
PRM – Prairie Meadows 77.6% 156 121
LRC – Los Alamitos TB 76.4% 148 113
GG – Golden Gate 75.5% 368 278
SR – Santa Rosa 75.0% 24 18
PIM – Pimlico 73.9% 46 34
MNR – Mountaineer Park 73.7% 205 151
LRL – Laurel Park 73.2% 328 240
NP – Northlands Park 73.1% 145 106
SA – Santa Anita 72.9% 362 264
TUP – Turf Paradise 72.5% 189 137
LA – Los Alamitos 72.5% 69 50
EMD – Emerald Downs 72.4% 174 126
AP – Arlington Park 71.9% 146 105
IND – Indiana Grand 71.5% 355 254
MED – Meadowlands 71.4% 14 10
AQU – Aqueduct 71.1% 298 212
LS -Lone Star Park 70.5% 146 103
BEL – Belmont Park 70.5% 302 213
PLN – Pleasanton 70.4% 27 19
FG – Fair Grounds 70.2% 245 172
KEE – Keeneland 69.6% 112 78
RP – Remington Park 69.2% 182 126
MTH – Monmouth Park 68.9% 164 113
FP – Fairmount Park 68.6% 70 48
ZIA – Zia Park 68.6% 105 72
OP – Oaklawn Park 68.3% 142 97
SAC – Sacramento 68.0% 25 17
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 67.9% 131 89
CD – Churchill Downs 67.9% 221 150
CBY – Canterbury Park 67.6% 148 100
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 67.1% 310 208
LAD – Louisiana Downs 67.0% 188 126
FL – Finger Lakes 66.9% 242 162
GP – Gulfstream Park 66.9% 774 518
PEN – Penn National 66.9% 338 226
CLS – Columbus 66.7% 21 14
FON – Fonner Park 66.7% 51 34
SUF – Suffolk Downs 66.7% 3 2
WO – Woodbine 66.1% 463 306
CT – Charles Town 66.0% 385 254
PRX – Parx 65.5% 342 224
DMR – Del Mar 65.4% 191 125
ALB – The Downs at Albuquerque 65.4% 26 17
DED – Delta Downs 65.1% 255 166
TP – Turfway Park 64.9% 131 85
SRP – Sun Ray Park 64.6% 65 42
RUI – Ruidoso Downs 64.2% 53 34
WRD – Will Rogers Downs 63.8% 94 60
PID – Presque Isle Downs 63.6% 162 103
GPW – Gulfstream Park West 63.6% 151 96
MVR – Mahoning Valley Racinge 63.6% 151 96
RET – Retama Park 63.4% 82 52
FNO – Fresno 63.2% 19 12
ARP – Arapahoe Park 62.3% 61 38
HST – Hastings Racecourse 60.7% 117 71
BTP – Belterra Park 60.3% 141 85
FE – Fort Erie 58.6% 99 58
HOU – Sam Houston Race Park 58.1% 86 50
EVD – Evangeline Downs 57.8% 232 134
SAR- Saratoga 56.8% 139 79
ELP – Ellis Park 55.8% 104 58
SUN – Sunland Park 55.1% 98 54
FMT – Tulsa Fair Meadows 54.0% 50 27
DEL – Delaware Park 52.7% 201 106
HP – Hazel Park 52.2% 23 12
TDN – Thistledowns 52.0% 127 66
STK – Stockton 50.0% 10 5
KD – Kentucky Downs 47.1% 17 8

The current leader, Ferndale, also garnered the top position for all maiden races. The mean – 67.3% – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite. The mean has been holding steady for several months now. The mean for all races and not just maiden events during the same period was 66.0%, so one can conclude that collectively linemakers do a better job at identifying the post time favourite in maiden events than all events.

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

Rolling Average Morning Line Performance Through May 2016

For the months of June 2015 to May 2016 inclusive, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks.* The results are listed in the table below.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Santa Rosa’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 65 of 82 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

The table is not a definitive test of the skill of the linemakers. The difficulty of making a morning line varies from track to track as a function of field size and inclement weather. The data presented for the reader’s own interpretation.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
SR – Santa Rosa 79.3% 82 65
LA – Los Alamitos 76.0% 359 273
LRC – Los Alamitos TB 73.8% 355 262
ASD – Assiniboia Downs 73.6% 330 243
GG – Golden Gate 73.4% 1209 887
AQU – Aqueduct 73.0% 901 658
PIM – Pimlico 72.3% 148 107
PLN – Pleasanton 71.9% 89 64
LRL – Laurel Park 71.8% 1116 801
LS -Lone Star Park 71.5% 460 329
SA – Santa Anita 71.4% 987 705
SAR- Saratoga 70.7% 403 285
CD – Churchill Downs 70.6% 666 470
PRM – Prairie Meadows 70.4% 548 386
MTH – Monmouth Park 70.4% 612 431
KEE – Keeneland 70.2% 339 238
NP – Northlands Park 70.2% 570 400
BEL – Belmont Park 70.1% 893 626
RP – Remington Park 69.9% 607 424
FNO – Fresno 69.8% 63 44
FG – Fair Grounds 69.7% 732 510
TUP – Turf Paradise 69.5% 956 664
RUI – Ruidoso Downs 69.4% 196 136
SAC – Sacramento 69.3% 75 52
MNR – Mountaineer Park 69.1% 1186 820
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 69.1% 866 598
DMR – Del Mar 69.0% 525 362
TP – Turfway Park 68.9% 499 344
WO – Woodbine 68.6% 1238 849
LAD – Louisiana Downs 68.5% 585 401
IND – Indiana Grand 68.1% 996 678
EMD – Emerald Downs 66.9% 665 445
AP – Arlington Park 66.8% 600 401
CT – Charles Town 66.4% 1336 887
GP – Gulfstream Park 66.3% 1835 1217
FL – Finger Lakes 66.3% 1423 943
PEN – Penn National 65.3% 1480 967
FER – Ferndale 65.0% 40 26
STK – Stockton 65.0% 40 26
DED – Delta Downs 65.0% 845 549
KD – Kentucky Downs 64.6% 48 31
CBY – Canterbury Park 64.5% 527 340
GPW – Gulfstream Park West 64.1% 395 253
MVR – Mahoning Valley Racinge 63.9% 822 525
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 63.4% 571 362
FP – Fairmount Park 63.3% 313 198
OP – Oaklawn Park 62.7% 424 266
WRD – Will Rogers Downs 62.7% 279 175
CLS – Columbus 61.6% 125 77
HST – Hastings Racecourse 61.4% 407 250
PRX – Parx 61.1% 1495 914
EVD – Evangeline Downs 59.2% 763 452
ZIA – Zia Park 58.9% 365 215
BTP – Belterra Park 58.5% 665 389
MED – Meadowlands 58.3% 60 35
RET – Retama Park 57.7% 227 131
ALB – The Downs at Albuquerque 57.1% 140 80
FE – Fort Erie 57.0% 335 191
SUN – Sunland Park 57.0% 379 216
FON – Fonner Park 56.9% 274 156
PID – Presque Isle Downs 56.7% 771 437
DEL – Delaware Park 56.7% 667 378
SUF – Suffolk Downs 56.5% 23 13
ELP – Ellis Park 55.4% 269 149
SRP – Sun Ray Park 54.4% 294 160
TDN – Thistledowns 52.1% 817 426
ARP – Arapahoe Park 52.0% 246 128
FMT – Tulsa Fair Meadows 51.2% 170 87
HOU – Sam Houston Race Park 49.1% 277 136
HP – Hazel Park 46.7% 105 49

The current leader, Santa Rosa, toppled the previous chart topper – Los Alamitos evening meet – a months ago and has maintained the leader’s position. It should be noted that I have separated the evening new daytime thoroughbred meets (LRC) from the Los Al races during the evening quarterhorse meets (LA). The mean – 66.0% – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite. The mean has been holding steady for several months now.

By one metric, Santa Rosa arguably produced the best morning line for 2015. They are likely to maintain their position on top of the list until at least when they start again next summer.

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.