Rolling Year of ML Favs Thru 6/30/2015

For the months of July 2014 to June 2015 inclusive, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks.* The results are listed in the table below.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Los Alamitos’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 282 of 364 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

The table is not a definitive test of the skill of the linemakers. The difficulty of making a morning line varies from track to track as a function of field size and inclement weather. The data presented for the reader’s own interpretation.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
LA – Los Alamitos 77.5% 364 282
ASD – Assiniboia Downs 76.0% 646 491
STK – Stockton 75.0% 40 30
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 73.6% 702 517
SR – Santa Rosa 73.6% 87 64
SA – Santa Anita 73.0% 1141 833
PIM – Pimlico 72.6% 380 276
AQU – Aqueduct 72.5% 714 518
GG – Golden Gate 72.4% 1138 824
DMR – Del Mar 71.8% 411 295
EMD – Emerald Downs 71.7% 717 514
LS -Lone Star Park 71.5% 533 381
CD – Churchill Downs 71.2% 831 592
LRC – Los Alamitos TB 71.0% 255 181
RP – Remington Park 70.8% 589 417
NP – Northlands Park 70.3% 686 482
LAD – Louisiana Downs 70.2% 819 575
LRL – Laurel Park 70.1% 757 531
MTH – Monmouth Park 69.9% 778 544
FNO – Fresno 69.8% 63 44
TUP – Turf Paradise 69.5% 810 563
FG – Fair Grounds 69.4% 532 369
MED – Meadowlands 68.8% 48 33
WRD – Will Rogers Downs 68.4% 272 186
SAR- Saratoga 68.3% 401 274
SAC – Sacramento 68.3% 41 28
HST – Hastings Racecourse 68.2% 478 326
GP – Gulfstream Park 68.1% 1855 1263
MVR – Mahoning Valley Racinge 67.7% 542 367
IND – Indiana Grand 67.1% 1159 778
BEL – Belmont Park 67.1% 967 649
WO – Woodbine 67.1% 1352 907
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 66.9% 680 455
KEE – Keeneland 66.9% 299 200
AP – Arlington Park 66.8% 868 580
FL – Finger Lakes 66.7% 1437 959
ZIA – Zia Park 66.3% 335 222
GPW – Gulfstream Park West 65.6% 494 324
MNR – Mountaineer Park 65.6% 1800 1180
PEN – Penn National 64.8% 1569 1017
FE – Fort Erie 64.6% 362 234
PLN – Pleasanton 64.6% 147 95
OP – Oaklawn Park 64.5% 369 238
PID – Presque Isle Downs 64.3% 913 587
SUN – Sunland Park 63.7% 347 221
FP – Fairmount Park 63.2% 525 332
RUI – Ruidoso Downs 63.2% 299 189
CT – Charles Town 63.2% 1502 949
PRM – Prairie Meadows 63.1% 720 454
CBY – Canterbury Park 62.7% 659 413
SUF – Suffolk Downs 62.6% 462 289
FER – Ferndale 62.5% 32 20
CLS – Columbus 62.2% 111 69
KD – Kentucky Downs 62.0% 50 31
DED – Delta Downs 61.8% 668 413
EVD – Evangeline Downs 61.6% 898 553
PRX – Parx 60.6% 1736 1052
BTP – Belterra Park 59.9% 1079 646
ELP – Ellis Park 59.1% 242 143
TP – Turfway Park 59.0% 366 216
DEL – Delaware Park 58.5% 767 449
FON – Fonner Park 57.9% 285 165
ARP – Arapahoe Park 57.6% 302 174
SRP – Sun Ray Park 56.7% 67 38
TDN – Thistledowns 54.8% 1079 591
ALB – The Downs at Albuquerque 54.6% 544 297
RET – Retama Park 52.8% 197 104
FMT – Tulsa Fair Meadows 50.0% 240 120
HOU – Sam Houston Race Park 45.8% 131 60

The current leader, Los Alamitos evening meet, retains the chart topper position. It should be noted that I have separated the evening new daytime thoroughbred meets (LRC) from the Los Al races during the evening quarterhorse meets (LA). The mean – 66.1 – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite.

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

** – Tracks that have discontinued live meets.

CFL: Football Futures

Like many sports fans, I enjoy more than one sport. Football has always been one of my dad’s favourites. I have never paid the same level of attention as he does but it is worth taking a look at the futures.

After reading Joe Peta’s “Trading Bases,” I decided to take a shot at making basketball predictions. Earlier, in the year I reviewed the futures for the MLB season. Now let’s try some football.

For the 2015 CFL regular season, I am predicting that the Calgary Stampeders will amass the most victories again. The table below is my official projection on the number of wins by each franchise.

TEAM Projected Wins
Calgary 14
Edmonton 13
BC 10
Hamilton 10
Toronto 9
Saskatchewan 8
Montreal 8
Winnipeg 7
Ottawa 4

In my first season of CFL projections, I would recommend backing Calgary and Edmonton

Last edited (June 8, 2015, 15:17 – sps)

1Trading Bases: A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball (Not Necessarily in That Order

Rolling Year Of ML Favs Through 5/31/2015

For the months of June 2014 to May 2015 inclusive, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks.* The results are listed in the table below.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Los Alamitos’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 259 of 335 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

The table is not a definitely test of the skill of the linemakers. The difficulty of making a morning line varies from track to track as a function of field size and inclement weather. The data presented for the reader’s own interpretation.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
LA – Los Alamitos 77.3% 335 259
ASD – Assiniboia Downs 75.6% 573 433
STK – Stockton 75.0% 40 30
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 73.6% 694 511
SR – Santa Rosa 73.6% 87 64
SA – Santa Anita 72.8% 1001 729
AQU – Aqueduct 72.5% 714 518
EMD – Emerald Downs 72.4% 594 430
GG – Golden Gate 72.2% 1071 773
PIM – Pimlico 71.8% 351 252
DMR – Del Mar 71.8% 411 295
LS -Lone Star Park 71.7% 417 299
LRC – Los Alamitos TB 71.0% 255 181
RP – Remington Park 70.8% 589 417
LAD – Louisiana Downs 70.4% 703 495
MTH – Monmouth Park 70.4% 645 454
LRL – Laurel Park 70.1% 757 531
CD – Churchill Downs 70.1% 690 484
NP – Northlands Park 69.9% 591 413
FNO – Fresno 69.8% 63 44
TUP – Turf Paradise 69.5% 810 563
HST – Hastings Racecourse 69.5% 419 291
FG – Fair Grounds 69.4% 532 369
MED – Meadowlands 68.8% 48 33
WRD – Will Rogers Downs 68.4% 272 186
SAR- Saratoga 68.3% 401 274
SAC – Sacramento 68.3% 41 28
GP – Gulfstream Park 68.2% 1688 1151
FL – Finger Lakes 68.1% 1243 846
AP – Arlington Park 68.0% 772 525
MVR – Mahoning Valley Racinge 67.7% 542 367
FE – Fort Erie 67.2% 299 201
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 66.9% 680 455
KEE – Keeneland 66.9% 299 200
WO – Woodbine 66.8% 1213 810
IND – Indiana Grand 66.6% 1015 676
BEL – Belmont Park 66.4% 789 524
ZIA – Zia Park 66.3% 335 222
GPW – Gulfstream Park West 65.6% 494 324
MNR – Mountaineer Park 65.1% 1602 1043
PID – Presque Isle Downs 65.0% 762 495
PEN – Penn National 64.6% 1440 930
OP – Oaklawn Park 64.5% 369 238
FP – Fairmount Park 63.8% 437 279
SUN – Sunland Park 63.7% 347 221
PRM – Prairie Meadows 63.4% 576 365
CT – Charles Town 63.3% 1374 870
SUF – Suffolk Downs 62.6% 462 289
CBY – Canterbury Park 62.5% 536 335
FER – Ferndale 62.5% 32 20
PLN – Pleasanton 62.5% 88 55
CLS – Columbus 62.2% 111 69
RUI – Ruidoso Downs 62.0% 237 147
KD – Kentucky Downs 62.0% 50 31
DED – Delta Downs 61.8% 668 413
EVD – Evangeline Downs 61.3% 751 460
PRX – Parx 60.9% 1573 958
DEL – Delaware Park 59.8% 615 368
ARP – Arapahoe Park 59.2% 228 135
BTP – Belterra Park 59.2% 950 562
ELP – Ellis Park 59.1% 242 143
TP – Turfway Park 59.0% 366 216
FON – Fonner Park 57.9% 285 165
SRP – Sun Ray Park 56.7% 67 38
TDN – Thistledowns 55.7% 941 524
ALB – The Downs at Albuquerque 52.8% 479 253
RET – Retama Park 52.8% 197 104
FMT – Tulsa Fair Meadows 48.4% 159 77
HOU – Sam Houston Race Park 45.8% 131 60

The current leader, Los Alamitos evening meet, retains the chart topper position. It should be noted that I have separated the evening new daytime thoroughbred meets (LRC) from the Los Al races during the evening quarterhorse meets (LA). The mean – 66.2% – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite.

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

** – Tracks that have discontinued live meets.

BKB: NBA Final Odds

NBA Championship Finals Schedules.

I am continuing my hobby of being an amateur basketball oddsmaker. In making an odds line for NBA games, I am invoking the Pythagorean expectation with an exponent of 13.93 with the assumption of a home field advantage of 54% home team victors.1 I am only using the points for and against for the regular season games – please feel free to adjust the odds by including the playoff games. The prediction problem with the Pythagorean expectation method is that odds are based upon the whole season evenly and not the recent games or the projected starters. But since it is baseball, take faith in these lines as far as you can throw them.

AWAY VS. HOME
CLEVELAND (27.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 3.70)
AT
GOLDEN STATE (73.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.38)
GOLDEN STATE (65.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.54)
VS.
CLEVELAND (35.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.86)

It looks to be Golden State’s year as favourites to win it all, but they have to play the games. There is 22% chance that the Warriors could sweep the Cavaliers and 1% vice versa. Good Luck! May there be great basketball!

Last edited (June 1, 2015, 13:32 – sps)

1Trading Bases: A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball (Not Necessarily in That Order

Rolling Year of Morning Line Favourites

For the months of May 2014 to April 2015 inclusive, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks.* The results are listed in the table below.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Los Alamitos’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 258 of 333 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

The table is not a definitely test of the skill of the linemakers. The difficulty of making a morning line varies from track to track as a function of field size and inclement weather. The data presented for the reader’s own interpretation.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
LA – Los Alamitos 77.5% 333 258
BEU – Beulah Park** 75.0% 8 6
STK – Stockton 75.0% 40 30
ASD – Assiniboia Downs 74.6% 599 447
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 74.0% 693 513
PIM – Pimlico 73.7% 346 255
SR – Santa Rosa 73.6% 87 64
EMD – Emerald Downs 73.1% 583 426
GG – Golden Gate 73.0% 1070 781
SA – Santa Anita 73.0% 992 724
AQU – Aqueduct 72.5% 714 518
DMR – Del Mar 71.8% 411 295
CD – Churchill Downs 71.7% 685 491
LS -Lone Star Park 71.2% 441 314
LRC – Los Alamitos TB 71.0% 255 181
HST – Hastings Racecourse 70.9% 412 292
RP – Remington Park 70.8% 589 417
MTH – Monmouth Park 70.7% 632 447
LAD – Louisiana Downs 70.6% 720 508
NP – Northlands Park 70.3% 593 417
LRL – Laurel Park 70.1% 757 531
WRD – Will Rogers Downs 70.1% 224 157
FNO – Fresno 69.8% 63 44
FG – Fair Grounds 69.4% 532 369
TUP – Turf Paradise 68.9% 808 557
MED – Meadowlands 68.8% 48 33
AP – Arlington Park 68.6% 825 566
SAR- Saratoga 68.3% 401 274
SAC – Sacramento 68.3% 41 28
GP – Gulfstream Park 68.2% 1612 1100
BEL – Belmont Park 68.1% 791 539
FE – Fort Erie 67.8% 307 208
MVR – Mahoning Valley Racinge 67.7% 542 367
FL – Finger Lakes 67.2% 1258 846
IND – Indiana Grand 67.2% 992 667
GPW – Gulfstream Park West 67.1% 614 412
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 66.9% 680 455
KEE – Keeneland 66.9% 299 200
WO – Woodbine 66.4% 1204 799
ZIA – Zia Park 66.3% 335 222
PID – Presque Isle Downs 66.2% 794 526
PRM – Prairie Meadows 65.7% 577 379
MNR – Mountaineer Park 65.0% 1593 1035
PEN – Penn National 64.7% 1494 966
OP – Oaklawn Park 64.5% 369 238
EVD – Evangeline Downs 64.0% 781 500
FP – Fairmount Park 63.8% 437 279
SUN – Sunland Park 63.7% 347 221
CT – Charles Town 63.3% 1397 884
SUF – Suffolk Downs 63.0% 560 353
FER – Ferndale 62.5% 32 20
PLN – Pleasanton 62.5% 88 55
ARP – Arapahoe Park 62.2% 233 145
CLS – Columbus 62.2% 111 69
KD – Kentucky Downs 62.0% 50 31
DED – Delta Downs 61.8% 668 413
RUI – Ruidoso Downs 61.3% 243 149
CBY – Canterbury Park 61.1% 529 323
PRX – Parx 60.4% 1573 950
DEL – Delaware Park 59.4% 599 356
BTP – Belterra Park 59.4% 798 474
FON – Fonner Park 59.2% 287 170
ELP – Ellis Park 59.1% 242 143
TP – Turfway Park 59.0% 366 216
SRP – Sun Ray Park 58.5% 159 93
TDN – Thistledowns 57.1% 947 541
RET – Retama Park 52.8% 197 104
ALB – The Downs at Albuquerque 51.9% 364 189
FMT – Tulsa Fair Meadows 48.4% 159 77
HOU – Sam Houston Race Park 45.8% 131 60

The current leader, Los Alamitos evening meet, retains the chart topper position. It should be noted that I have separated the evening new daytime thoroughbred meets (LRC) from the Los Al races during the evening quarterhorse meets (LA). The mean – 66.5% – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite.

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

** – Tracks that have discontinued live meets.