Morning Line Performances for Maiden Races

For the months of May 2015 to April 2016 inclusive, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks for maiden racing only.* The results are listed in the table below.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Ferndale’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 7 of 8 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

The table is not a definitive test of the skill of the linemakers. The difficulty of making a morning line varies from track to track as a function of field size, track condition, and inclement weather. The data presented for the reader’s own interpretation.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
FER – Ferndale 87.5% 8 7
LRC – Los Alamitos TB 77.1% 144 111
LA – Los Alamitos 76.1% 71 54
EMD – Emerald Downs 75.8% 178 135
GG – Golden Gate 75.2% 379 285
SR – Santa Rosa 75.0% 24 18
SA – Santa Anita 74.4% 367 273
NP – Northlands Park 73.6% 148 109
PRM – Prairie Meadows 73.4% 169 124
LRL – Laurel Park 73.3% 318 233
ASD – Assiniboia Downs 72.7% 66 48
MNR – Mountaineer Park 72.2% 209 151
AP – Arlington Park 72.0% 143 103
TUP – Turf Paradise 72.0% 189 136
MED – Meadowlands 71.4% 14 10
IND – Indiana Grand 71.2% 351 250
PIM – Pimlico 71.2% 59 42
AQU – Aqueduct 71.1% 298 212
PLN – Pleasanton 70.4% 27 19
FG – Fair Grounds 70.2% 245 172
KEE – Keeneland 69.6% 112 78
CBY – Canterbury Park 69.6% 158 110
LS -Lone Star Park 69.5% 154 107
RP – Remington Park 69.2% 182 126
FP – Fairmount Park 68.6% 70 48
ZIA – Zia Park 68.6% 105 72
OP – Oaklawn Park 68.3% 142 97
CD – Churchill Downs 68.2% 223 152
SRP – Sun Ray Park 68.1% 47 32
SAC – Sacramento 68.0% 25 17
WO – Woodbine 67.9% 468 318
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 67.9% 131 89
LAD – Louisiana Downs 67.7% 198 134
GP – Gulfstream Park 67.6% 771 521
BEL – Belmont Park 67.2% 302 203
PEN – Penn National 67.2% 344 231
CLS – Columbus 66.7% 21 14
FON – Fonner Park 66.7% 48 32
SUF – Suffolk Downs 66.7% 3 2
PRX – Parx 66.6% 332 221
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 66.5% 310 206
WRD – Will Rogers Downs 66.3% 101 67
FL – Finger Lakes 66.3% 240 159
MTH – Monmouth Park 65.5% 168 110
DMR – Del Mar 65.4% 191 125
DED – Delta Downs 65.1% 255 166
CT – Charles Town 65.1% 401 261
TP – Turfway Park 64.9% 131 85
GPW – Gulfstream Park West 63.6% 151 96
MVR – Mahoning Valley Racinge 63.6% 151 96
RET – Retama Park 63.4% 82 52
HST – Hastings Racecourse 63.3% 120 76
PID – Presque Isle Downs 63.3% 166 105
ARP – Arapahoe Park 63.2% 57 36
FNO – Fresno 63.2% 19 12
HP – Hazel Park 62.9% 35 22
ALB – The Downs at Albuquerque 61.7% 47 29
RUI – Ruidoso Downs 59.6% 57 34
BTP – Belterra Park 58.8% 148 87
FE – Fort Erie 58.3% 96 56
HOU – Sam Houston Race Park 58.1% 86 50
EVD – Evangeline Downs 58.1% 241 140
SAR- Saratoga 56.8% 139 79
ELP – Ellis Park 55.8% 104 58
DEL – Delaware Park 54.5% 209 114
SUN – Sunland Park 54.3% 94 51
FMT – Tulsa Fair Meadows 54.0% 50 27
TDN – Thistledowns 51.6% 128 66
STK – Stockton 50.0% 10 5
KD – Kentucky Downs 47.1% 17 8

The current leader, Ferndale, also garnered the top position for all maiden races. The mean – 67.3% – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite. The mean has been holding steady for several months now. The mean for all races and not just maiden events during the same period was 65.9%, so one can conclude that collectively linemakers do a better job at identifying the post time favourite in maiden events than all events.

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

Grass Racing Morning Line Performances

For the months of May 2015 to April 2016 inclusive, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks for turf racing only.* The results are listed in the table below. Races scheduled for the turf but subsequently moved to the main track are not included in this study.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Santa Rosa’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 30 of 35 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

The table is not a definitive test of the skill of the linemakers. The difficulty of making a morning line varies from track to track as a function of field size, track condition, and inclement weather. The data presented for the reader’s own interpretation.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
SR – Santa Rosa 85.7% 35 30
LAD – Louisiana Downs 77.0% 183 141
MNR – Mountaineer Park 75.7% 189 143
PIM – Pimlico 73.7% 76 56
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 72.5% 244 177
FE – Fort Erie 71.1% 45 32
GG – Golden Gate 71.0% 231 164
DMR – Del Mar 70.7% 181 128
FG – Fair Grounds 70.6% 221 156
KEE – Keeneland 70.2% 84 59
SA – Santa Anita 69.8% 301 210
LRL – Laurel Park 69.2% 308 213
PEN – Penn National 69.0% 129 89
AQU – Aqueduct 68.8% 112 77
TUP – Turf Paradise 68.2% 217 148
BEL – Belmont Park 68.0% 419 285
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 66.7% 75 50
SAR- Saratoga 66.5% 203 135
AP – Arlington Park 66.1% 221 146
MTH – Monmouth Park 65.9% 211 139
IND – Indiana Grand 65.8% 158 104
WO – Woodbine 65.7% 175 115
LS -Lone Star Park 65.4% 107 70
CD – Churchill Downs 65.0% 123 80
GP – Gulfstream Park 64.7% 921 596
KD – Kentucky Downs 64.6% 48 31
GPW – Gulfstream Park West 63.3% 199 126
EVD – Evangeline Downs 60.3% 68 41
MED – Meadowlands 58.3% 60 35
ELP – Ellis Park 57.4% 115 66
RET – Retama Park 57.3% 89 51
CBY – Canterbury Park 56.9% 153 87
DEL – Delaware Park 56.8% 146 83
RP – Remington Park 56.7% 104 59
PRX – Parx 53.5% 129 69
HOU – Sam Houston Race Park 51.9% 79 41
BTP – Belterra Park 50.0% 22 11
SUF – Suffolk Downs 50.0% 10 5

The current leader, Santa Rosa, also garnered the top position in 2015 for all races. The mean – 66.5% – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite. The mean has been holding steady for several months now. The mean for all races and not just turf events during the same period was 65.9%, so one can conclude that collectively linemakers do a better job at identifying the post time favourite in grass events than all events.

By one metric, Santa Rosa arguably produced the best morning line for 2015. They are likely to maintain their position on top of the list until at least when they start again next summer. All together there will likely be few changes in the order of performance

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

Morning Line Performances for Juvenile Races

While all are focussed on the sophomore class at the moment during Derby week, the freshman thoroughbreds have begun their season in April.

For the months of May 2015 to April 2016 inclusive, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks for juvenile racing only.* The results are listed in the table below.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Fort Erie’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 1 of 1 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

The table is not a definitive test of the skill of the linemakers. The difficulty of making a morning line varies from track to track as a function of field size, track condition, and inclement weather. The data presented for the reader’s own interpretation.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
FE – Fort Erie 100.0% 1 1
HP – Hazel Park 100.0% 3 3
MED – Meadowlands 100.0% 2 2
ALB – The Downs at Albuquerque 85.7% 7 6
SR – Santa Rosa 83.3% 6 5
RP – Remington Park 82.2% 101 83
ASD – Assiniboia Downs 81.3% 16 13
ARP – Arapahoe Park 80.0% 20 16
FP – Fairmount Park 80.0% 5 4
LRC – Los Alamitos TB 80.0% 65 52
FL – Finger Lakes 78.8% 33 26
IND – Indiana Grand 78.6% 84 66
MVR – Mahoning Valley Racinge 78.3% 23 18
LS -Lone Star Park 77.8% 36 28
AQU – Aqueduct 75.9% 87 66
AP – Arlington Park 75.8% 33 25
GG – Golden Gate 75.3% 85 64
SA – Santa Anita 73.8% 84 62
NP – Northlands Park 73.2% 56 41
BEL – Belmont Park 72.3% 94 68
WO – Woodbine 72.3% 159 115
EMD – Emerald Downs 72.0% 50 36
FNO – Fresno 71.4% 7 5
KEE – Keeneland 71.0% 62 44
LRL – Laurel Park 70.5% 105 74
ELP – Ellis Park 70.4% 27 19
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 69.2% 26 18
TP – Turfway Park 68.4% 19 13
MNR – Mountaineer Park 68.2% 22 15
LAD – Louisiana Downs 67.6% 34 23
CD – Churchill Downs 67.3% 107 72
GPW – Gulfstream Park West 67.0% 115 77
EVD – Evangeline Downs 66.7% 45 30
DMR – Del Mar 66.4% 122 81
PEN – Penn National 65.9% 44 29
PRM – Prairie Meadows 65.9% 41 27
FG – Fair Grounds 65.3% 72 47
GP – Gulfstream Park 64.6% 181 117
DED – Delta Downs 64.6% 96 62
SAR- Saratoga 64.3% 70 45
CBY – Canterbury Park 64.1% 39 25
RET – Retama Park 63.9% 36 23
PRX – Parx 63.4% 82 52
MTH – Monmouth Park 62.9% 35 22
CT – Charles Town 62.3% 69 43
ZIA – Zia Park 61.8% 68 42
KD – Kentucky Downs 61.5% 13 8
RUI – Ruidoso Downs 61.5% 26 16
PIM – Pimlico 60.0% 5 3
TDN – Thistledowns 60.0% 25 15
TUP – Turf Paradise 56.8% 37 21
PLN – Pleasanton 55.6% 9 5
PID – Presque Isle Downs 54.4% 68 37
HST – Hastings Racecourse 54.3% 35 19
SUN – Sunland Park 53.8% 13 7
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 53.5% 43 23
SRP – Sun Ray Park 50.0% 8 4
STK – Stockton 50.0% 4 2
DEL – Delaware Park 47.4% 57 27
BTP – Belterra Park 43.8% 16 7
SAC – Sacramento 40.0% 5 2

Since this is the second or third time that I have reported the success of linemakers for just baby races, I won’t list a leader. The mean – 68.1% – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite.

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

Rolling Average of Morning Line Performances Through April 2016

For the months of May 2015 to April 2016 inclusive, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks.* The results are listed in the table below.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Santa Rosa’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 65 of 82 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

The table is not a definitive test of the skill of the linemakers. The difficulty of making a morning line varies from track to track as a function of field size and inclement weather. The data presented for the reader’s own interpretation.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
SR – Santa Rosa 79.3% 82 65
LA – Los Alamitos 77.1% 371 286
LRC – Los Alamitos TB 74.6% 346 258
ASD – Assiniboia Downs 73.6% 326 240
AQU – Aqueduct 73.0% 901 658
GG – Golden Gate 72.9% 1220 889
PIM – Pimlico 72.3% 206 149
LS -Lone Star Park 72.0% 478 344
PLN – Pleasanton 71.9% 89 64
LRL – Laurel Park 71.7% 1074 770
SA – Santa Anita 71.7% 999 716
CD – Churchill Downs 70.7% 670 474
SAR- Saratoga 70.7% 403 285
NP – Northlands Park 70.4% 582 410
KEE – Keeneland 70.2% 339 238
LAD – Louisiana Downs 69.9% 625 437
RP – Remington Park 69.9% 607 424
FNO – Fresno 69.8% 63 44
TUP – Turf Paradise 69.8% 950 663
FG – Fair Grounds 69.7% 732 510
BEL – Belmont Park 69.5% 910 632
SAC – Sacramento 69.3% 75 52
WO – Woodbine 69.3% 1256 870
MNR – Mountaineer Park 69.1% 1177 813
PRM – Prairie Meadows 69.0% 574 396
DMR – Del Mar 69.0% 525 362
TP – Turfway Park 68.9% 499 344
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 68.9% 867 597
RUI – Ruidoso Downs 68.4% 206 141
MTH – Monmouth Park 67.8% 646 438
EMD – Emerald Downs 67.7% 674 456
IND – Indiana Grand 66.9% 1003 671
GP – Gulfstream Park 66.4% 1829 1214
FL – Finger Lakes 66.2% 1400 927
AP – Arlington Park 65.9% 624 411
CT – Charles Town 65.4% 1418 928
FER – Ferndale 65.0% 40 26
STK – Stockton 65.0% 40 26
DED – Delta Downs 65.0% 845 549
CBY – Canterbury Park 64.9% 550 357
PEN – Penn National 64.8% 1490 966
KD – Kentucky Downs 64.6% 48 31
FP – Fairmount Park 64.5% 321 207
GPW – Gulfstream Park West 64.1% 395 253
MVR – Mahoning Valley Racinge 63.9% 822 525
WRD – Will Rogers Downs 63.6% 305 194
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 63.4% 571 362
OP – Oaklawn Park 62.7% 424 266
CLS – Columbus 61.6% 125 77
PRX – Parx 61.0% 1488 907
HST – Hastings Racecourse 60.6% 414 251
EVD – Evangeline Downs 59.3% 779 462
ZIA – Zia Park 58.9% 365 215
BTP – Belterra Park 58.5% 715 418
MED – Meadowlands 58.3% 60 35
SRP – Sun Ray Park 58.1% 203 118
DEL – Delaware Park 57.8% 683 395
RET – Retama Park 57.7% 227 131
FE – Fort Erie 57.5% 327 188
SUF – Suffolk Downs 56.5% 23 13
ALB – The Downs at Albuquerque 56.5% 255 144
PID – Presque Isle Downs 56.2% 795 447
SUN – Sunland Park 56.1% 362 203
FON – Fonner Park 56.0% 266 149
ELP – Ellis Park 55.4% 269 149
ARP – Arapahoe Park 53.7% 231 124
TDN – Thistledowns 52.2% 827 432
FMT – Tulsa Fair Meadows 51.2% 170 87
HOU – Sam Houston Race Park 49.1% 277 136
HP – Hazel Park 46.1% 89 41

The current leader, Santa Rosa, toppled the previous chart topper – Los Alamitos evening meet – a months ago and has maintained the leader’s position. It should be noted that I have separated the evening new daytime thoroughbred meets (LRC) from the Los Al races during the evening quarterhorse meets (LA). The mean – 65.9% – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite. The mean has been holding steady for several months now.

By one metric, Santa Rosa arguably produced the best morning line for 2015. They are likely to maintain their position on top of the list until at least when they start again next summer.

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

MemDayBC Potential Beneficiary: Semper Fi Fund

The Semper Fi Fund is a potential beneficiary of the 2016 Memorial Day Betting Challenge.

Semper Fi Fund began in 2003. Just back from Operation Iraqi Freedom, the first wave of wounded Marines and Sailors landed at Camp Pendleton, California. Karen Guenther, a registered nurse and spouse of an active duty Marine, saw firsthand the challenges faced by wounded Marines and Sailors as they returned from Iraq. She, along with a dedicated group of military spouses began to organize welcome home activities at the hospital. They arranged travel for family members who couldn’t afford airfare. They provided a specialized van for a Marine who is now a quadriplegic through the generosity of donors like retired Marine Colonel Jack Kelly. The group assembled and distributed care bags filled with toiletries and phone cards. And still, the injured kept coming.

The mission of the Semper Fi Fund is to provide immediate financial assistance and lifetime support to post-9/11 wounded, critically ill and injured members of all branches of the U.S. Armed Forces, and their families, ensuring that they have the resources they need during their recovery and transition back to their communities.

On the big holiday weekend of racing in the transition from spring to summer, May 30, 2016, will feature special Monday racing programs on a somber occasion for remembering the people who died while serving in the armed forces. My good friends at Horse Radio Racing Network are promoting a special Coast-to-Coast Handicapping Contest and Fundraiser. In the spirit of the horse racing uniting for good, all participants will voluntarily put up $20 to compete in a mythical bankroll handicapping contest where the winner gets to decide what charity receives all of the donation pool.

Potential recipients of the donation pool include the following Memorial Day focused charities, such as the Semper Fi Fund, or horse racing themed charities. The handicapping contest winner will also receive four (4) tickets to the 2016 Queen’s Plate. Additional contest details can be found at http://www.linemakers.net/2016-memdaybc-contest-form/.