ML Performance Through July

For the months of August 2014 to July 2015 inclusive, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks.* The results are listed in the table below.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Los Alamitos’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 281 of 361 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

The table is not a definitive test of the skill of the linemakers. The difficulty of making a morning line varies from track to track as a function of field size and inclement weather. The data presented for the reader’s own interpretation.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
LA – Los Alamitos 77.8% 361 281
SR – Santa Rosa 76.0% 100 76
ASD – Assiniboia Downs 75.1% 651 489
STK – Stockton 75.0% 40 30
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 73.9% 702 519
PIM – Pimlico 73.1% 350 256
SA – Santa Anita 72.7% 992 721
AQU – Aqueduct 72.5% 714 518
GG – Golden Gate 72.2% 1060 765
LS -Lone Star Park 71.5% 494 353
EMD – Emerald Downs 71.2% 725 516
LRC – Los Alamitos TB 70.9% 323 229
RP – Remington Park 70.8% 589 417
CD – Churchill Downs 70.6% 671 474
NP – Northlands Park 70.3% 698 491
LRL – Laurel Park 70.0% 854 598
PLN – Pleasanton 70.0% 120 84
FNO – Fresno 69.8% 63 44
DMR – Del Mar 69.6% 517 360
TUP – Turf Paradise 69.5% 810 563
FG – Fair Grounds 69.4% 532 369
SAC – Sacramento 69.0% 116 80
MTH – Monmouth Park 68.9% 779 537
HST – Hastings Racecourse 68.8% 475 327
MED – Meadowlands 68.8% 48 33
LAD – Louisiana Downs 68.5% 812 556
WRD – Will Rogers Downs 68.4% 272 186
WO – Woodbine 68.3% 1363 931
SAR- Saratoga 68.1% 470 320
GP – Gulfstream Park 67.9% 1920 1304
MVR – Mahoning Valley Racinge 67.7% 542 367
IND – Indiana Grand 67.4% 1184 798
AP – Arlington Park 67.2% 851 572
GPW – Gulfstream Park West 67.2% 390 262
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 66.9% 680 455
KEE – Keeneland 66.9% 299 200
FL – Finger Lakes 66.8% 1433 957
BEL – Belmont Park 66.4% 912 606
ZIA – Zia Park 66.3% 335 222
MNR – Mountaineer Park 66.1% 1804 1193
PEN – Penn National 64.6% 1577 1019
OP – Oaklawn Park 64.5% 369 238
PRM – Prairie Meadows 64.4% 736 474
SUN – Sunland Park 63.7% 347 221
RUI – Ruidoso Downs 63.5% 266 169
CBY – Canterbury Park 63.5% 680 432
FE – Fort Erie 63.2% 356 225
CT – Charles Town 63.1% 1478 933
FER – Ferndale 62.5% 32 20
FP – Fairmount Park 62.5% 509 318
CLS – Columbus 62.2% 111 69
KD – Kentucky Downs 62.0% 50 31
DED – Delta Downs 61.8% 668 413
SUF – Suffolk Downs 61.0% 351 214
PRX – Parx 60.7% 1719 1043
EVD – Evangeline Downs 60.4% 943 570
PID – Presque Isle Downs 60.2% 913 550
TP – Turfway Park 59.0% 366 216
SRP – Sun Ray Park 58.9% 90 53
DEL – Delaware Park 58.9% 785 462
BTP – Belterra Park 58.3% 945 551
ARP – Arapahoe Park 57.9% 309 179
FON – Fonner Park 57.9% 285 165
ELP – Ellis Park 56.5% 354 200
ALB – The Downs at Albuquerque 54.6% 544 297
TDN – Thistledowns 53.5% 1087 582
RET – Retama Park 52.8% 197 104
FMT – Tulsa Fair Meadows 51.6% 252 130
HOU – Sam Houston Race Park 45.8% 131 60
HP – Hazel Park 41.8% 67 28

The current leader, Los Alamitos evening meet, retains the chart topper position. It should be noted that I have separated the evening new daytime thoroughbred meets (LRC) from the Los Al races during the evening quarterhorse meets (LA). The mean – 65.8% – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite.

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

** – Tracks that have discontinued live meets.

Rolling Year of ML Favs Thru 6/30/2015

For the months of July 2014 to June 2015 inclusive, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks.* The results are listed in the table below.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Los Alamitos’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 282 of 364 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

The table is not a definitive test of the skill of the linemakers. The difficulty of making a morning line varies from track to track as a function of field size and inclement weather. The data presented for the reader’s own interpretation.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
LA – Los Alamitos 77.5% 364 282
ASD – Assiniboia Downs 76.0% 646 491
STK – Stockton 75.0% 40 30
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 73.6% 702 517
SR – Santa Rosa 73.6% 87 64
SA – Santa Anita 73.0% 1141 833
PIM – Pimlico 72.6% 380 276
AQU – Aqueduct 72.5% 714 518
GG – Golden Gate 72.4% 1138 824
DMR – Del Mar 71.8% 411 295
EMD – Emerald Downs 71.7% 717 514
LS -Lone Star Park 71.5% 533 381
CD – Churchill Downs 71.2% 831 592
LRC – Los Alamitos TB 71.0% 255 181
RP – Remington Park 70.8% 589 417
NP – Northlands Park 70.3% 686 482
LAD – Louisiana Downs 70.2% 819 575
LRL – Laurel Park 70.1% 757 531
MTH – Monmouth Park 69.9% 778 544
FNO – Fresno 69.8% 63 44
TUP – Turf Paradise 69.5% 810 563
FG – Fair Grounds 69.4% 532 369
MED – Meadowlands 68.8% 48 33
WRD – Will Rogers Downs 68.4% 272 186
SAR- Saratoga 68.3% 401 274
SAC – Sacramento 68.3% 41 28
HST – Hastings Racecourse 68.2% 478 326
GP – Gulfstream Park 68.1% 1855 1263
MVR – Mahoning Valley Racinge 67.7% 542 367
IND – Indiana Grand 67.1% 1159 778
BEL – Belmont Park 67.1% 967 649
WO – Woodbine 67.1% 1352 907
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 66.9% 680 455
KEE – Keeneland 66.9% 299 200
AP – Arlington Park 66.8% 868 580
FL – Finger Lakes 66.7% 1437 959
ZIA – Zia Park 66.3% 335 222
GPW – Gulfstream Park West 65.6% 494 324
MNR – Mountaineer Park 65.6% 1800 1180
PEN – Penn National 64.8% 1569 1017
FE – Fort Erie 64.6% 362 234
PLN – Pleasanton 64.6% 147 95
OP – Oaklawn Park 64.5% 369 238
PID – Presque Isle Downs 64.3% 913 587
SUN – Sunland Park 63.7% 347 221
FP – Fairmount Park 63.2% 525 332
RUI – Ruidoso Downs 63.2% 299 189
CT – Charles Town 63.2% 1502 949
PRM – Prairie Meadows 63.1% 720 454
CBY – Canterbury Park 62.7% 659 413
SUF – Suffolk Downs 62.6% 462 289
FER – Ferndale 62.5% 32 20
CLS – Columbus 62.2% 111 69
KD – Kentucky Downs 62.0% 50 31
DED – Delta Downs 61.8% 668 413
EVD – Evangeline Downs 61.6% 898 553
PRX – Parx 60.6% 1736 1052
BTP – Belterra Park 59.9% 1079 646
ELP – Ellis Park 59.1% 242 143
TP – Turfway Park 59.0% 366 216
DEL – Delaware Park 58.5% 767 449
FON – Fonner Park 57.9% 285 165
ARP – Arapahoe Park 57.6% 302 174
SRP – Sun Ray Park 56.7% 67 38
TDN – Thistledowns 54.8% 1079 591
ALB – The Downs at Albuquerque 54.6% 544 297
RET – Retama Park 52.8% 197 104
FMT – Tulsa Fair Meadows 50.0% 240 120
HOU – Sam Houston Race Park 45.8% 131 60

The current leader, Los Alamitos evening meet, retains the chart topper position. It should be noted that I have separated the evening new daytime thoroughbred meets (LRC) from the Los Al races during the evening quarterhorse meets (LA). The mean – 66.1 – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite.

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

** – Tracks that have discontinued live meets.

CFL: Football Futures

Like many sports fans, I enjoy more than one sport. Football has always been one of my dad’s favourites. I have never paid the same level of attention as he does but it is worth taking a look at the futures.

After reading Joe Peta’s “Trading Bases,” I decided to take a shot at making basketball predictions. Earlier, in the year I reviewed the futures for the MLB season. Now let’s try some football.

For the 2015 CFL regular season, I am predicting that the Calgary Stampeders will amass the most victories again. The table below is my official projection on the number of wins by each franchise.

TEAM Projected Wins
Calgary 14
Edmonton 13
BC 10
Hamilton 10
Toronto 9
Saskatchewan 8
Montreal 8
Winnipeg 7
Ottawa 4

In my first season of CFL projections, I would recommend backing Calgary and Edmonton

Last edited (June 8, 2015, 15:17 – sps)

1Trading Bases: A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball (Not Necessarily in That Order

Rolling Year Of ML Favs Through 5/31/2015

For the months of June 2014 to May 2015 inclusive, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks.* The results are listed in the table below.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Los Alamitos’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 259 of 335 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

The table is not a definitely test of the skill of the linemakers. The difficulty of making a morning line varies from track to track as a function of field size and inclement weather. The data presented for the reader’s own interpretation.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
LA – Los Alamitos 77.3% 335 259
ASD – Assiniboia Downs 75.6% 573 433
STK – Stockton 75.0% 40 30
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 73.6% 694 511
SR – Santa Rosa 73.6% 87 64
SA – Santa Anita 72.8% 1001 729
AQU – Aqueduct 72.5% 714 518
EMD – Emerald Downs 72.4% 594 430
GG – Golden Gate 72.2% 1071 773
PIM – Pimlico 71.8% 351 252
DMR – Del Mar 71.8% 411 295
LS -Lone Star Park 71.7% 417 299
LRC – Los Alamitos TB 71.0% 255 181
RP – Remington Park 70.8% 589 417
LAD – Louisiana Downs 70.4% 703 495
MTH – Monmouth Park 70.4% 645 454
LRL – Laurel Park 70.1% 757 531
CD – Churchill Downs 70.1% 690 484
NP – Northlands Park 69.9% 591 413
FNO – Fresno 69.8% 63 44
TUP – Turf Paradise 69.5% 810 563
HST – Hastings Racecourse 69.5% 419 291
FG – Fair Grounds 69.4% 532 369
MED – Meadowlands 68.8% 48 33
WRD – Will Rogers Downs 68.4% 272 186
SAR- Saratoga 68.3% 401 274
SAC – Sacramento 68.3% 41 28
GP – Gulfstream Park 68.2% 1688 1151
FL – Finger Lakes 68.1% 1243 846
AP – Arlington Park 68.0% 772 525
MVR – Mahoning Valley Racinge 67.7% 542 367
FE – Fort Erie 67.2% 299 201
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 66.9% 680 455
KEE – Keeneland 66.9% 299 200
WO – Woodbine 66.8% 1213 810
IND – Indiana Grand 66.6% 1015 676
BEL – Belmont Park 66.4% 789 524
ZIA – Zia Park 66.3% 335 222
GPW – Gulfstream Park West 65.6% 494 324
MNR – Mountaineer Park 65.1% 1602 1043
PID – Presque Isle Downs 65.0% 762 495
PEN – Penn National 64.6% 1440 930
OP – Oaklawn Park 64.5% 369 238
FP – Fairmount Park 63.8% 437 279
SUN – Sunland Park 63.7% 347 221
PRM – Prairie Meadows 63.4% 576 365
CT – Charles Town 63.3% 1374 870
SUF – Suffolk Downs 62.6% 462 289
CBY – Canterbury Park 62.5% 536 335
FER – Ferndale 62.5% 32 20
PLN – Pleasanton 62.5% 88 55
CLS – Columbus 62.2% 111 69
RUI – Ruidoso Downs 62.0% 237 147
KD – Kentucky Downs 62.0% 50 31
DED – Delta Downs 61.8% 668 413
EVD – Evangeline Downs 61.3% 751 460
PRX – Parx 60.9% 1573 958
DEL – Delaware Park 59.8% 615 368
ARP – Arapahoe Park 59.2% 228 135
BTP – Belterra Park 59.2% 950 562
ELP – Ellis Park 59.1% 242 143
TP – Turfway Park 59.0% 366 216
FON – Fonner Park 57.9% 285 165
SRP – Sun Ray Park 56.7% 67 38
TDN – Thistledowns 55.7% 941 524
ALB – The Downs at Albuquerque 52.8% 479 253
RET – Retama Park 52.8% 197 104
FMT – Tulsa Fair Meadows 48.4% 159 77
HOU – Sam Houston Race Park 45.8% 131 60

The current leader, Los Alamitos evening meet, retains the chart topper position. It should be noted that I have separated the evening new daytime thoroughbred meets (LRC) from the Los Al races during the evening quarterhorse meets (LA). The mean – 66.2% – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite.

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

** – Tracks that have discontinued live meets.

BKB: NBA Final Odds

NBA Championship Finals Schedules.

I am continuing my hobby of being an amateur basketball oddsmaker. In making an odds line for NBA games, I am invoking the Pythagorean expectation with an exponent of 13.93 with the assumption of a home field advantage of 54% home team victors.1 I am only using the points for and against for the regular season games – please feel free to adjust the odds by including the playoff games. The prediction problem with the Pythagorean expectation method is that odds are based upon the whole season evenly and not the recent games or the projected starters. But since it is baseball, take faith in these lines as far as you can throw them.

AWAY VS. HOME
CLEVELAND (27.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 3.70)
AT
GOLDEN STATE (73.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.38)
GOLDEN STATE (65.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.54)
VS.
CLEVELAND (35.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.86)

It looks to be Golden State’s year as favourites to win it all, but they have to play the games. There is 22% chance that the Warriors could sweep the Cavaliers and 1% vice versa. Good Luck! May there be great basketball!

Last edited (June 1, 2015, 13:32 – sps)

1Trading Bases: A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball (Not Necessarily in That Order