Full Fields: Wednesday, October 1st

There are fifteen fields with at least 12 entrants (before scratches including Also Eligibles) on tap today.

BEL Entries – 4, 9
CT Entries – 1
IND Entries – 8, 9
IND Entries – 3, 5, 7, 8, 9
PEN Entries – 1
RP Entries – 6, 7, 9
WO Entries – 1

In order to help horse racing fans find quality, full fields, the North American thoroughbred races categorized as ‘Full Fields’ will be listed daily and will have a minimum pre-scratch field size of ten and a minimum purse of $12,000.* (Hurdles, steeplechase, and point-to-points are not listed.)

*- DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

BSB: ALDS Odds

SB Nation’s Playoff Bracket and Schedules.

I am continuing my hobby of being an amateur baseball oddsmaker. In making an odds line for MLB games, I am invoking the Pythagorean expectation with an exponent of 1.82 with the assumption of a home field advantage of 54% home team victors.1 The prediction problem with the Pythagorean expectation method is that odds are based upon the whole season evenly and not the recent games or the projected starters. But since it is baseball, take faith in these lines as far as you can throw them.

AWAY VS. HOME
KANSAS CITY (38.1% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.63)
AT
ANGELS (61.9% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.62)
ANGELS (53.9% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.85)
VS.
KANSAS CITY (46.1% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.17)

Even with the home field advantage factored in to the mix. The Los Angeles Angels have the highest Pythogorean expectation regardless in which stadium the games are played. The same can be said for the Baltimore Orioles.

AWAY VS. HOME
DETROIT (41.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.44)
AT
BALTIMORE (59.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.70)
BALTIMORE (51.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.96)
VS.
DETROIT (49.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.04)

It looks to be an Orioles vs. Angles ALCS, but they have to play the games. Good Luck! May there be great baseball!

Last edited (October 1, 2014, 3:00 – sps)

1Trading Bases: A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball (Not Necessarily in That Order

AFB: Week 5 NFL Odds

Week 5’s Lineup with Kick-off Times and Television Coverage

AWAY VS. HOME
MINNESOTA (32.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 3.13)
VS.
GREEN BAY (68.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.47)
CHICAGO (15.8% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 6.33)
VS.
CAROLINA (84.2% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.19)
CLEVELAND (39.7% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 3.24)
VS.
TENNESSEE (60.3% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.45)
ST. LOUIS (31.2% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 3.21)
VS.
PHILADELPHIA (68.8% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.46)
ATLANTA (45.3% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.21)
VS.
NEW GIANTS (54.7% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.83)
TAMPA BAY (8.3% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 12.11)
VS.
NEW ORLEANS (91.7% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.10)
HOUSTON (16.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 6.24)
VS.
DALLAS (84.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.20)
BUFFALO (30.2% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 3.32)
VS.
DETROIT (69.8% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.44)
BALTIMORE (28.1% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 3.56)
VS.
INDIANAPOLIS (71.9% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.40)
PITTSBURGH (79.8% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.26)
VS.
JACKSONVILLE (20.2% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 4.95)
ARIZONA (25.4% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 3.94)
VS.
DENVER (74.6% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.35)
KANSAS CITY (40.7% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.46)
VS.
SAN FRANCISCO (59.3% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.69)
NY JETS (15.6% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 6.42)
VS.
SAN DIEGO (84.4% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.19)
CINCINNATI (46.5% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.16)
VS.
NEW ENGLAND (53.5% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.87)
SEATTLE (87.5% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.15)
VS.
WASHINGTON (12.5% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 8.04)

I am continuing my hobby of being an amateur line maker in sports. After last week, the only adjustment that I made pro-rating last year’s performance to a smaller proportion — hopefully, the odds will be more productive. With my current career in horse racing I must be neutral in equine events. NFL odds making is in no way a conflict of interest within in my current profession. This provides an avenue to explore ideas. In making an odds line for NFL games, I am invoking the Pythagorean expectation with an exponent of 2.37 with the assumption of a home field advantage of 57.3% home team victors.1

Last edited (September 30, 2014, 12:00 – sps)

1Trading Bases: A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball (Not Necessarily in That Order

Full Fields: Tuesday, September 30th

There are five fields with at least 12 entrants (before scratches including Also Eligibles) on tap today.

FE Entries – 4
IND Entries – 2, 5, 8
PRX Entries – 8

In order to help horse racing fans find quality, full fields, the North American thoroughbred races categorized as ‘Full Fields’ will be listed daily and will have a minimum pre-scratch field size of ten and a minimum purse of $12,000.* (Hurdles, steeplechase, and point-to-points are not listed.)

*- DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

BSB: Wildcard Playoff Game Odds

SB Nation’s Playoff Bracket and Schedules

AWAY VS. HOME
OAKLAND (55.7% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.79)
VS.
KANSAS CITY (44.3% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.26)
PITTSBURGH (46.1% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.17)
VS.
SAN FRANCISCO (53.9% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.86)

I am continuing my hobby of being an amateur line maker in sports. In making an odds line for MLB games, I am invoking the Pythagorean expectation with an exponent of 1.82 with the assumption of a home field advantage of 54% home team victors.1 The prediction problem with the Pythagorean expectation method is that odds are based upon the whole season evenly and not the recent games or the projected starters. But since it is baseball, take faith in these lines as far as you can throw them.

Momentum suggests that the Oakland – Kansas City line is bad. If one was to remove the home field advantage adjustment, then the Pittsburgh – San Francisco match-up would be a coin toss. Good Luck! May there be great baseball!

Last edited (September 29, 2014, 17:00 – sps)

1Trading Bases: A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball (Not Necessarily in That Order