Full Fields: Wednesday, October 22nd

There are twenty-four fields with at least 12 entrants (before scratches including Also Eligibles) on tap today.

BEL Entries – 5, 7
DED Entries – 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8
GPW Entries – 5, 9
HAW Entries – 8
IND Entries – 5, 7, 8, 9
KEE Entries – 7
LRL Entries – 5, 9
RP Entries – 5, 7, 8, 9
TDN Entries – 7
WO Entries – 8

In order to help horse racing fans find quality, full fields, the North American thoroughbred races categorized as ‘Full Fields’ will be listed daily and will have a minimum pre-scratch field size of tewelve and a minimum purse of $12,000.* (Hurdles, steeplechase, and point-to-points are not listed.)

*- DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

Full Fields: Tuesday, October 21st

There are six fields with at least 12 entrants (before scratches including Also Eligibles) on tap today.

IND Entries – 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10

In order to help horse racing fans find quality, full fields, the North American thoroughbred races categorized as ‘Full Fields’ will be listed daily and will have a minimum pre-scratch field size of tewelve and a minimum purse of $12,000.* (Hurdles, steeplechase, and point-to-points are not listed.)

*- DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

BKB: Basketball Futures

I will try my hand again as an amateur linemaker for basketball. Last year, I predicted that the Oklahoma City Thunder would amass the most regular season wins with 62. They actually had the second most wins with 59. The San Antonio Spurs lead the league with 62 wins and I projected 59 using the Pythagorean Expectation method1 with an exponent of 13.93.

Since I am relatively new to making predictions based upon the Pythagorean Expectation method, I haven’t figured out how to quantitatively adjust for trades and injuries. I over predicted the number of wins for the Lakers without anticipating Kobe Bryant’s injury. Likewise, I am likely to under-predict the number of wins for the Cleveland Cavaliers with their off-season acquisitions of LeBron James.

For the 2014-2015 NBA regular season, I am predicting that the San Antonio Spurs will amass the most victories. The table below is my official projection on the number of wins by each franchise.

TEAM Projected Wins Vegas Line Play
San Antonio 61 57.5 BET
LA Clippers 59 56.5 BET
Okla City 58 53.5 BET
Golden State 54 51.5 BET
Indiana 54 33.5 BET
Miami 54 44.5 BET
Houston 53 49.5 BET
Portland 51 50 PUSH
Toronto 50 48 BET
Dallas 48 50.5 AVOID
Minnesota 48 27.5 BET
Phoenix 48 44 BET
Chicago 47 55.5 AVOID
Memphis 45 48.5 AVOID
Washington 45 47.5 AVOID
Atlanta 40 42 AVOID
Charlotte 40 44.5 AVOID
New York 39 41 AVOID
Brooklyn 38 42 AVOID
Denver 35 42.5 AVOID
New Orleans 33 43.5 AVOID
Sacramento 33 30.5 BET
Cleveland 32 58.5 AVOID
Detroit 31 36 AVOID
Boston 28 27 PUSH
Orlando 26 27.5 PUSH
LA Lakers 25 31 AVOID
Utah 22 26.5 AVOID
Milwaukee 20 24.5 AVOID
Philadelphia 16 15.5 PUSH

In my second season of NBA projections, I would recommend backing twelve teams against the current Las Vegas line.2 Three of the twelve need to be judgement calls on how the injuries and trades will affect the teams — Miami, Minnesota, and Oklahoma City. Last year, the biggest edge was on Utah but that wasn’t fruitful. This year both Indiana and Minnesota have the same edge on the books. The large edge probably reflects the raw Pythagorean Expectation without any adjustments to roster changes – so caveat emptor.

Last edited (October 20, 2013, 19:47 – sps)

1Trading Bases: A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball (Not Necessarily in That Order

2Las Vegas Futures

*- DISCLAIMER: Additionally, I would like to note that all thoughts and ideas expressed in this blog are those of my own and are not an expression of my past, present, or future employers.

Full Fields: Monday, October 20th

There are two fields with at least 12 entrants (before scratches including Also Eligibles) on tap today.

FL Entries – 2
GPW Entries – 10

In order to help horse racing fans find quality, full fields, the North American thoroughbred races categorized as ‘Full Fields’ will be listed daily and will have a minimum pre-scratch field size of tewelve and a minimum purse of $12,000.* (Hurdles, steeplechase, and point-to-points are not listed.)

*- DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

Ticket Coverage In “The Perfect 10″ Will Be Costly

Gulfstream Park West has created an innovative wager, The Perfect 10, which will be expensive for horseplayers to get maximum coverage. It will likely lead to a multi-day carryover on Monday, November 17th when there is a scheduled mandatory payout.

With a $0.10 minimum ticket, the wager seems affordable until a player starts buying coverage in races. For example, the table below list the ticket costs for some examples.

Horses Per Leg Total Ticket Price
1 $0.10
2 $102.40
3 $5,904.90
4 $104,857.60
5 $976,562.50
6 $6,046,617.60
7 $28,247,524.90
8 $107,374,182.40
9 $348,678,440.10
10 $1 BILLION !!!

I have no predictions on how popular the new wager will be. The ultra-low takeout will meet some players wishes as will the potential large carryovers. The apparent impossibility of cashing may discourage play. I will watch with curiousity.