Grass Course Morning Line Performance

For the months of February 2015 to January 2016 inclusive, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks for turf racing only.* The results are listed in the table below. Races scheduled for the turf but subsequently moved to the main track are not included in this study.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Santa Rosa’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 30 of 35 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

The table is not a definitive test of the skill of the linemakers. The difficulty of making a morning line varies from track to track as a function of field size, track condition, and inclement weather. The data presented for the reader’s own interpretation.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
SR – Santa Rosa 85.7% 35 30
LAD – Louisiana Downs 77.0% 183 141
MNR – Mountaineer Park 75.7% 189 143
PIM – Pimlico 74.8% 119 89
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 74.3% 237 176
SA – Santa Anita 72.3% 347 251
FG – Fair Grounds 72.2% 237 171
FE – Fort Erie 71.1% 45 32
DMR – Del Mar 70.7% 181 128
GG – Golden Gate 70.5% 244 172
KEE – Keeneland 69.7% 76 53
AQU – Aqueduct 69.7% 99 69
LS -Lone Star Park 69.7% 99 69
BEL – Belmont Park 68.8% 417 287
LRL – Laurel Park 67.6% 244 165
TUP – Turf Paradise 66.8% 223 149
SAR- Saratoga 66.5% 203 135
AP – Arlington Park 66.1% 221 146
GP – Gulfstream Park 66.0% 826 545
MTH – Monmouth Park 65.9% 211 139
IND – Indiana Grand 65.8% 158 104
WO – Woodbine 65.7% 175 115
CD – Churchill Downs 65.1% 126 82
KD – Kentucky Downs 64.6% 48 31
PEN – Penn National 64.5% 273 176
GPW – Gulfstream Park West 63.3% 199 126
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 61.6% 73 45
EVD – Evangeline Downs 60.9% 64 39
MED – Meadowlands 58.3% 60 35
HOU – Sam Houston Race Park 58.1% 74 43
ELP – Ellis Park 57.4% 115 66
RET – Retama Park 57.3% 89 51
CBY – Canterbury Park 56.9% 153 87
DEL – Delaware Park 56.8% 146 83
RP – Remington Park 56.7% 104 59
PRX – Parx 55.3% 262 145
BTP – Belterra Park 50.0% 22 11
SUF – Suffolk Downs 50.0% 10 5

The current leader, Santa Rosa, also garnered the top position in 2015 for all races. The mean – 66.7% – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite. The mean has been holding steady for several months now. The mean for all races and not just turf events during the same period was 65.8%, so one can conclude that collectively linemakers do a better job at identifying the post time favourite in grass events than all events.

By one metric, Santa Rosa arguably produced the best morning line for 2015. They are likely to maintain their position on top of the list until at least when they start again next summer. All together there will likely be few changes in the order of performance

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

Rolling Average of Morning Lines Through January 2016

For the months of February 2015 to Janauary 2016 inclusive, I have tabulated the results of lines made for several North American flat thoroughbred race tracks.* The results are listed in the table below.

In the chart below, the first column represents the percentage of times the the morning line maker correctly selected the post time favourite with his/her morning line. The way to read the first line is: the Santa Rosa’s morning line maker’s lowest priced horse after scratches was the post time favourite 65 of 82 times in thoroughbred races during the window of the study.

The table is not a definitive test of the skill of the linemakers. The difficulty of making a morning line varies from track to track as a function of field size and inclement weather. The data presented for the reader’s own interpretation.

TRACKS Percentage ML Favorites* Also PT Favorites*
SR – Santa Rosa 79.3% 82 65
LA – Los Alamitos 77.6% 379 294
AQU – Aqueduct 73.6% 884 651
ASD – Assiniboia Downs 73.6% 326 240
LRC – Los Alamitos TB 73.3% 255 187
PIM – Pimlico 73.1% 350 256
SA – Santa Anita 72.8% 1086 791
TAM – Tampa Bay Downs 72.1% 883 637
LRL – Laurel Park 72.0% 974 701
PLN – Pleasanton 71.9% 89 64
LS -Lone Star Park 71.8% 447 321
GG – Golden Gate 71.7% 1219 874
SAR- Saratoga 70.7% 403 285
TUP – Turf Paradise 70.5% 937 661
KEE – Keeneland 70.5% 329 232
NP – Northlands Park 70.4% 582 410
CD – Churchill Downs 70.4% 689 485
LAD – Louisiana Downs 69.9% 625 437
BEL – Belmont Park 69.9% 909 635
RP – Remington Park 69.9% 607 424
FNO – Fresno 69.8% 63 44
SAC – Sacramento 69.3% 75 52
WO – Woodbine 69.2% 1236 855
DMR – Del Mar 69.0% 525 362
FG – Fair Grounds 68.5% 765 524
RUI – Ruidoso Downs 68.4% 206 141
WRD – Will Rogers Downs 68.4% 272 186
EMD – Emerald Downs 68.0% 635 432
MNR – Mountaineer Park 67.9% 1437 976
MTH – Monmouth Park 67.8% 646 438
GP – Gulfstream Park 67.0% 1808 1211
TP – Turfway Park 66.6% 512 341
HAW – Hawthorne Racecourse 66.5% 684 455
PRM – Prairie Meadows 66.4% 602 400
IND – Indiana Grand 66.1% 983 650
FL – Finger Lakes 66.0% 1349 891
FP – Fairmount Park 65.9% 378 249
AP – Arlington Park 65.9% 624 411
FER – Ferndale 65.0% 40 26
STK – Stockton 65.0% 40 26
CBY – Canterbury Park 64.9% 550 357
KD – Kentucky Downs 64.6% 48 31
GPW – Gulfstream Park West 64.1% 395 253
DED – Delta Downs 63.8% 867 553
MVR – Mahoning Valley Racinge 63.8% 850 542
PEN – Penn National 63.4% 1466 930
CT – Charles Town 63.3% 1359 860
OP – Oaklawn Park 62.3% 459 286
CLS – Columbus 61.6% 125 77
HST – Hastings Racecourse 61.4% 404 248
EVD – Evangeline Downs 60.2% 776 467
PRX – Parx 59.3% 1547 917
SRP – Sun Ray Park 59.2% 179 106
ZIA – Zia Park 58.9% 365 215
SUN – Sunland Park 58.4% 375 219
BTP – Belterra Park 58.4% 699 408
MED – Meadowlands 58.3% 60 35
FON – Fonner Park 57.9% 285 165
DEL – Delaware Park 57.8% 683 395
ALB – The Downs at Albuquerque 57.8% 303 175
RET – Retama Park 57.7% 227 131
FE – Fort Erie 57.5% 327 188
SUF – Suffolk Downs 56.5% 23 13
PID – Presque Isle Downs 56.2% 795 447
ELP – Ellis Park 55.4% 269 149
ARP – Arapahoe Park 53.7% 231 124
TDN – Thistledowns 51.5% 811 418
FMT – Tulsa Fair Meadows 51.2% 170 87
HOU – Sam Houston Race Park 47.7% 218 104
HP – Hazel Park 46.1% 89 41

The current leader, Santa Rosa, toppled the previous chart topper – Los Alamitos evening meet – a few months ago and has maintained the leader’s position. It should be noted that I have separated the evening new daytime thoroughbred meets (LRC) from the Los Al races during the evening quarterhorse meets (LA). The mean – 65.8% – success in tabbing the post time favourite with the morning line favourite. The mean has been holding steady for several months now.

By one metric, Santa Rosa arguably produced the best morning line for 2015. They are likely to maintain their position on top of the list until at least when they start again next summer.

* – DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

LMML: Linemakers Moneyline for Super Bowl 50

AWAY VS. HOME
CAROLINA (72.1% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.39)
VS.
DENVER (27.9% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 3.59)

I am continuing my hobby of being an amateur line maker in sports. For Super Bowl 50, I am invoking the Pythagorean expectation with an exponent of 2.37 with the assumption of no home field advantage.1

The prediction problem with the Pythagorean expectation method is that odds are based upon the whole season evenly and not the recent games or the projected starters. Since I am a numbers guy and not football guy, I recommend that you use these lines for entertainment value only. Even with the injuries from the conference championship games, the numbers suggest that Carolina will tower over Denver.

Good Luck! Enjoy the games! Come back and see the odds for other upcoming sporting events.

Last edited (January 25, 2015, 19:55 – sps)

1Trading Bases: A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball (Not Necessarily in That Order

LMML: Linemakers Moneyline for NFL Conference Finals

AWAY VS. HOME
NEW ENGLAND (54.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.85)
VS.
DENVER (46.0% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.18)
ARIZONA (39.6% – Minimal Decimal Odds of 2.53)
VS.
CAROLINA (60.4%- Minimal Decimal Odds of 1.66)

I am continuing my hobby of being an amateur line maker in sports. For the NFL conference final games, I am invoking the Pythagorean expectation with an exponent of 2.37 with the assumption of a 57.3% home ice advantage.1

The prediction problem with the Pythagorean expectation method is that odds are based upon the whole season evenly and not the recent games or the projected starters. Since I am a numbers guy and not football guy, I recommend that you use these lines for entertainment value only.

Good Luck! Enjoy the games! Come back and see the odds for other upcoming sporting events.

Last edited (January 18, 2015, 21:05 – sps)

1Trading Bases: A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball (Not Necessarily in That Order