The winner of next Saturday’s (17 Dec 2011) Grade I CashCall Futurity will be worth 29-to-1 in the 2012 Kentucky Derby (if past performances are any guide). In the first 30 runnings of the (formerly known) Hollywood Futurity from STALWART to COMMA TO THE TOP, only one victor went on to win the Run For The Roses. The outlier, REAL QUIET, was an underlay at post time odds of 8.4-to-1 on Derby Day. The runner-ups have fared better in the Kentucky Derby by producing three winners: ALYSHEBA, THUNDER GULCH, and GIACOMO.
Profiling the last 30 Futurity winners might point to value in itself. Despite only producing one Derby Winner from its winner circle, the Hollywood Futurity has historically been a very classy race. Historically projected, the odds that the Futurity winner was previously a graded-stakes-winner is 4-to-11. The odds that the winner was only previously graded-stakes-placed is 13-to-2 which is the same odds of the winner having no previous black type entering the race Saturday.
Not surprsingly, the majority of the Futurity wins had been precocious. The odds of winning the Futurity without having broken maiden within the first three starts is 14-to-1 (only FALI TIME-4 and REAL QUIET-7 took more than three starts to become winners). The past 13, 11, and 4 winners broke their maidens respectively in the first, second, and third starts.
The eligibility condition of the winners prior to the running of the Futurity were uneven distibuted between non-winners of one other-than and out-of-conditions. 5 were N1X, 11 were N2X, 5 N3X, 6 N4X, and 3 were out of conditions (all were essential non-winners of five other-than maiden, claiming, or starters). 1-to-5 odds that the winner will not have been elibile for an AN1X prior to Saturday’s contest.
Prior to the race, the winners started an average of 5.2 times ranging from 2 to 9. The winners had garnered an average of 2.7 victories ranging from 1 to 5.
The top three profile traits of the CashCall Futurity winners are:
- Previously Graded-Stakes-Placed
- Not Eligible for an Other-Than Condition
- Broke Maiden Within First Two Starts
Ten (10) of the original nominees from May deadline all meet these three profile traits. This isn’t to say that no one else can win but when entries are drawn on Wednesday look for the following names: BATTLE FORCE, BRIGAND, CREATIVE CAUSE, HANDSOME MIKE, I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, LONGVIEW DRIVE, MAJESTIC CITY, MIGHTY MONSOON, NIGHT TIDE, and SO BRILLIANT. Alternatively, look for a late supplement that meets these guidelines.