Precocity Index – Another Keeneland Test

On Thursday, April 12th, we will be afforded another opportunity to test using the precocity index to predict the results of a juvenile thoroughbred race (see below). While the precocity index presents the simple idea of runners with a lower ‘pi’ are more likely to break their maidens first, we all know the pitfalls of single variable handicapping. One must also consider the human connections and the preparation as evident by workouts.

Keeneland – April 12, 2012

Race 5 – 3:09 PM Double-Exacta-Trifecta($.50 min)-Pick 3($.50 min)(Races 5-6-7)-Pick 5($.50 min)(Races 5-9)Superfecta($.10 min)

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Purse $50,000. (Includes $4,800 – KTDF – Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 118 Lbs. Four And One Half Furlongs. (All Weather Track)

P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L

1 1 Handsome Jack (FL) 2/G L J Sanchez 118 W A Ward 5/2

Sire – Bring the heat ‘pi’ – 174

2 2 I’m Boundtoscore (IN) 2/C L V Lebron 118 T Rankin 12/1

Sire – Even the Score ‘pi’ – ~328

3 3 The Roofer (PA) 2/G L J A Garcia 118 W A Ward 5/2

Sire – Fairbanks ‘pi’ – *

4 4 Alls Im Saying (KY) 2/C L M Pedroza 118 P McEntee 15/1

Sire – Taste of Paradise ‘pi’ – ~290

5 5 Fitz Is Dancing (KY) 2/G L M Straight 118 T W Short 20/1

Sire – Seattle Fitz (ARG) ‘pi’ – 238

6 6 I’mgonnaknockuout (KY) 2/G L M R Torres 118 T C Short 20/1

Sire – Quest ‘pi’ – ~215

7 7 Nails in the Fence (KY) 2/C L O Rossi 118 A N Hillyard 15/1

Sire – Heatseeker (IRE) ‘pi’ – *

8 8 Purge to Purge (KY) 2/C L J McKee 118 J A Hancock 10/1

Sire – Purge ‘pi’ – 307

9 9 Ready Set Whoa (KY) 2/G L F Villeda 1117 D Preston 15/1

Sire – Ready’s Image ‘pi’ – *

10 10 Joha (KY) 2/C LA J R Leparoux 118 M J Maker 3/1

Sire – Johar ‘pi’ – 292

Only seven of the ten entrants were sired by stallions without a ‘precocity index’ to date — some of those are ‘pi’ with low confidence.

For our first test, we will predict that the relative order of finish will be: Handsome jack, I’mgonnaknockuout, Fitz is Dancing, Alls Im Saying, Joha, Purge to Purge, and I’m Boundtoscore. Of the seven factorial (7!) possible combinations of the seven runners in the body of the race with precocity indices, we expect 1 – 6 – 5 – 4 – 10 – 8 – 2. Without sufficeint data to predict the other three runners, it is entirely possible these eight will be the last seven to cross the finish line. We can only predict the respective order.

As usual we acknowledge that the precocity index is a single variable in a complex system of predicting the results of a race. Post positions in dashes and trainer strength in juvenile races are usually a significant factor in these type of events. However, we are encouraged that the runner with the lowest ‘pi’ is trained by a trainer notorious for successfully prepping first time starters especially babies.

Succeed or fail – we will try again with the two-year-old event on Friday at Keeneland.

*- DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information. Additionally, any possible post-race disqualifications affecting wins may not be reflected.


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