Test of the Precocity Index – June 1st

In March and April, I demonstrated some limited promise with the new methodology of handicapping juvenile baby races based upon the precocity index of a runner’s sire.

During the month of June, I will continue to test the concept of the Precocity Index. Every day in the month, I will provide data on largest “(pre-scratch field size) two-year-old maiden race offered that day in North America. (in the event of a tie, I will select the race with the largest purse).

While the precocity index presents the simple idea of runners with a lower ‘pi’ are more likely to break their maidens first, we all know the pitfalls of single variable handicapping. One must also consider the human connections and the preparation as evident by workouts. Honestly, the ‘pi’ is only in the proof of concept stage and should not be used as a wagering tool with any significant confidence.

Today, I chose the 6th race from GG from the list of the day’s baby maiden races:

BEL – 4
CBY – 1, 5
CD – 3, 5
CRC – 3, 9
EVD – 1, 3
FL – 5
GG – 4, 6
LAD – 1
MTH – 3
PRM – 1

TEST RACE*

Golden Gate Fields – June 1, 2012

Race 6 – 5:45 PM (all times local to the host track)

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Purse $28,500. (Plus $8,550 – CBOIF – California Bred Owner Fund). For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 118 Lbs. Four And One Half Furlongs. (All Weather Track)

PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Odds Sire PI

1 Native Treasure (CA) 2/C L1 F Duran 118 E Moger, Jr. 8/1 TRIBAL RULE ‘pi’ = 263
2 Our Worthyendeavor (CA) 2/C R Richard 1117 F Henderson 30/1 PETESKI’S CHARM ‘pi’ = ~381
3 Uncle Enroy (CA) 2/C L J Couton 118 R J Lucas 5/1 OLD TOPPER ‘pi’ = 311
4 Saint Prado (KY) 2/C L1 R A Baze 118 J Bonde 2/1 KITTEN’S JOY ‘pi’ = 262
5 Coastal Blessing (CA) 2/C L1 F T Alvarado 118 S Specht 3/1 LUCKY PULPIT ‘pi’ = 292
6 Bigreds Thrillshow (CA) 2/C L I Orozco 108>sup>10 W L McDaniel 30/1 TANNERSMYMAN ‘pi’ = 258
7 Red Deputy (CA) 2/C L K John 118 L San Juan 20/1 TANNERSMYMAN ‘pi’ = 258
8 Karen’s Good Boy (AR) 2/C L1 C Martinez 118 D Roberson 6/1 GOT THE GOODS ‘pi’ = ~369
9 Condiment (CA) 2/C L1 A Cedillo 118 J Brook 12/1 PEPPERED CAT ‘pi’ = 394
10 Fowler Road (CA) 2/C L1 D R Sanchez 118 E L Jackson 10/1 UNCLE DENNY ‘pi’ = ~424

The following is the single-variable prediction of the order of finish for horse runners represented by a stallion with a precocity index at the time of the race: 6/7, 6/7 , 4, 1, 5, 3, 8, 2, 9, 10. Bigreds Thrillshow and Red Deputy’s chances are flattered by their common sire – TANNERSMYMAN. Unfortunately, the sample size on TANNERSMYMAN’s precocity idex is smaller than that of TRIBAL RULE and KITTEN’S JOY. I would be hesitant to recommend the 6 and 7 more strongly than the 1 and 4 solely on the ‘pi,’ but that is why we are testing the methodology.

As usual we acknowledge that the precocity index is a single variable in a complex system of predicting the results of a race. Post positions in dashes, workout patterns, and trainer strength in juvenile races are usually a significant factor in these type of events.

*- DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information. Additionally, any possible post-race disqualifications affecting wins may not be reflected.


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