L I N E M A K E R S

4/24 Earnings Update

admin — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 21:33:42 +0000

Preference criteria for entries into the Triple Crown events including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes are based upon a runner’s lifetime Graded Stakes Earnings.

The list below is the current top 456 earners for the sophomores through the stakes which ran on Sunday, April 22^nd. Fillies, turf runners, and non-Triple Crown nominees have been included for you never know which owners will catch ‘Derby Fever.’

We will continue updating this list through the Belmont Stakes. After which we will begin tabulating the graded stakes earnings for the Crop of 2010.

RANK* HORSE GRADED $

Hansen $1,550,000
My Miss Aurelia (f) $1,350,000
Daddy Long Legs $1,294,030
Union Rags $1,170,000
Dullahan $855,000
Stephanie’s Kitten (f) $850,446
Creative Cause $836,000
Wrote (IRE) $756,630
Grace Hall (f) $740,000
Gemologist $703,855
Sabercat $701,429
Take Charge Indy $698,400
Secret Circle $670,000
Bodemeister $660,000
Hero of Order $617,375
I’ll Have Another $601,000
Daddy Nose Best $545,558
Weemissfrankie (f) $522,120
Yang Tse Kiang (FR) $422,211
Liaison $393,000
Alpha $380,000
Believe You Can (f) $369,734
Prospective $367,327
Trinniberg $324,500
Done Talking $311,000
Karlovy Vary (f) $301,694
Drill $300,000
Now I Know (f) $300,000
On Fire Baby (f) $286,729
Killer Graces (f) $284,200
Went the Day Well $282,000
Broadway’s Alibi (f) $270,000
Rousing Sermon $270,000
Yara (f) $269,000
Willa B Awesome (f) $264,000
Mark Valeski $260,000
El Padrino $250,000
Excaper $240,736
Algorithms $240,000
Stopshoppingmaria (f) $240,000
Basmati $220,000
Reveron $220,000
Summer Applause (f) $220,000
Reneesgotzip (f) $200,000
Isn’t He Clever $191,333
Dayatthespa (f) $190,892
Eden’s Moon (f) $186,000
Optimizer $184,708
Self Preservation (f) $183,040
Disposablepleasure (f) $182,500
Mamma Kimbo (f) $180,000
Majestic City $170,000
Castaway $162,667
Northern Passion (f) $157,845
Finale $153,345
Currency Swap $150,000
The Lumber Guy $150,000
Millionreasonswhy (f) $145,000
My Adonis $140,000
Hard Not to Like (f) $135,112
Brother Francis $135,000
All Squared Away $129,410
Sweet Cat (f) $129,000
Battle Hardened $127,000
Charm the Maker (f) $125,400
Animal Spirits $120,000
Inny Minnie (f) $120,000
O’Prado Again $120,000
Stirred Up $116,000
Mr. Bowling $115,848
Lucky Chappy (IRE) $115,000
Howe Great $112,500
Sacristy (f) $110,000
Somali Lemonade (f) $110,000
Heart of Destiny (f) $106,734
Jack’s in the Deck $105,000
Longview Drive $102,834
Lady of Shamrock (f) $102,000
Scatman $101,875
Morgan’s Guerilla $100,666
Teeth of the Dog $100,000
Farraaj (IRE) $99,000
Shared Property $96,700
Gypsy Robin (f) $95,000
Holiday Promise $94,667
Vexor $91,000
Agave Kiss (f) $90,000
Blueskiesnrainbows $90,000
Mighty Caroline (f) $90,000
Overdriven $90,000
Say a Novena (f) $90,000
State of Play $90,000
Thunder Moccasin $90,000
Tiger Walk $90,000
Jake Mo $88,333
Amie’s Dini (f) $85,000
Cozzetti $85,000
Empire Way $85,000
Georgie’s Angel (f) $84,234
News Pending $80,666
Motor City $78,383
Golden Ticket $76,000
Gung Ho $76,000
Z Dager $75,000
Handsome Mike $73,500
Flashy Lassie (f) $69,145
Brigand $69,000
Exfactor $67,748
Sky Kingdom $64,000
She Digs Me $63,000
Seven Lively Sins $61,697
Power World $61,354
More Than Love (f) $61,000
In Lingerie (f) $60,140
Out of Bounds $60,000
Pure Gossip (f) $60,000
Questing (f) $60,000
Shkspeare Shaliyah $60,000
So Brilliant $60,000
Stoney Fleece $60,000
Up (IRE) (f) $60,000
Zo Impressive (f) $60,000
Hakama $59,000
Rocket Twentyone (f) $58,433
And Why Not (f) $58,253
No Spin $56,353
Neck ‘n Neck $56,000
Candrea (f) $55,000
Ever So Lucky $50,377
Hardened Wildcat $50,000
Judy the Beauty (f) $50,000
Welcome Guest (f) $50,000
Lady Pecan (f) $49,906
Heavy Breathing $48,875
Emerald Gold (f) $45,000
How Do I Win $45,000
Paynter $45,000
Yvete Sangalo (f) $45,000
Speightscity $40,800
Avie’s Sense (f) $40,000
Cigar Street $40,000
Discreet Dancer $40,000
Finnegans Wake $40,000
Putthebabiesdown (f) $40,000
Regalo Mia (f) $40,000
Souper Speedy $40,000
Summer Front $40,000
Wildcat’s Smile (f) $40,000
Lockout $38,484
Holy Candy $37,500
Goldrush Girl (f) $37,177
Atigun $36,453
Midnight Transfer $36,000
Laurie’s Rocket $35,333
Bourbonstreetgirl (f) $34,850
Coalport $34,500
Stat $33,334
Our Entourage $33,000
Adirondack King $32,429
Ender Knievel $32,000
Fort Loudon $32,000
Captivating Lass (f) $31,800
Saturday Launch $31,000
American Act $30,000
Blingo $30,000
Byrama (GB) $30,000
Corderosa (f) $30,000
Dixie Strike (f) $30,000
Hearts of Red (f) $30,000
Hello Prince $30,000
Il Villano $30,000
Jemima’s Pearl (f) $30,000
Miss Netta (f) $30,000
Open Water (f) $30,000
Right to Vote $30,000
River Kiss (f) $30,000
Ruler of Dubai $30,000
Team Six $30,000
True Feelings (f) $27,500
Reckless Jerry $26,428
Big Blue Nation $25,000
Cyber Secret $24,282
Tequila Factor $24,000
Csaba $23,000
Black Rhino $22,500
Colonial Empress (f) $22,500
Jagati $22,500
Tarpy’s Goal $22,500
The Cat’s All That $22,500
Hammers Terror $21,750
Five Star Momma (f) $21,423
Ravelo’s Boy $20,500
Devious Intent (f) $20,000
Fourt Loudon $20,000
Frolic’s Revenge (f) $20,000
Kitten’s Kid $20,000
Mystic Mama (f) $20,000
Perennial Song (f) $20,000
Small Kitchen (f) $20,000
Starship Flair (f) $20,000
Dancing Solo (f) $19,400
Bluedacious $19,242
Glinda the Good (f) $18,120
Alydarla (f) $18,000
Bella’s Fantasy (f) $18,000
Dan and Sheila $18,000
Heleonor Rugby (f) $18,000
Mighty Monsoon $18,000
Spring Hill Farm $17,500
Essence of Bubbles (f) $17,280
Night Tide $17,000
Timely Tally $16,751
Back Spin (f) $16,088
Maritimer $15,335
Stealcase $15,100
Bellacourt (f) $15,000
Dancing Anna (f) $15,000
Gun Boat $15,000
Holiday Soiree (f) $15,000
Indian Evening $15,000
Livi Makenzie (f) $15,000
My Gi Gi (f) $15,000
Quick Wit $15,000
Seeker $15,000
Takes the Gold $15,000
Wait Til Dawn (f) $15,000
Wild Truffles (f) $15,000
Spirited Miss (f) $14,472
Pee H Dee $13,929
Maan $13,500
Afford $13,000
Golden History (f) $12,882
Nuffsaid Nuffsaid (f0 $12,500
Ring It Up $12,500
Singlet (f) $12,500
Chalybeate Springs $12,032
Battle Force $12,000
Hodge $12,000
Island Paradise (f) $12,000
Justanoldsong $12,000
Pretension $12,000
Silver Max $12,000
Splendiferous $12,000
Unveiled Heat $12,000
Bet to Win (f) $11,734
Ann of the Dance (f) $11,560
Quick Flip (f) $11,000
Your Special Day (f) $11,000
Friscan $10,927
Russian Greek $10,875
Queen Teuta (f) $10,711
Gold Megallah $10,500
Knock Rock $10,500
Casual Trick $10,000
Delightful Magic (f) $10,000
Dougs Buddy $10,000
Fantastic Song $10,000
Fire Alarm $10,000
Force de La Nature $10,000
New Wave (f) $10,000
Street Life $10,000
Tiz Moe $10,000
Wee Party (f) $10,000
Windsurfer $10,000
Toxis (f) $9,700
Spring Eclipse (f) $9,194
Invocation $9,000
Let’s Get Crackin $9,000
Off Limits (f) $9,000
Spare Change (f) $9,000
King and Crusader $8,500
Sum of the Parts $8,463
Aubby K (f) $8,063
Consortium $8,000
Tizanexpense $8,000
Argentine Tango $7,500
Banner Bill $7,500
Good Looking Girl (f) $7,500
Large Kaufy $7,500
Majestic Stride $7,500
Milania $7,500
Princess Reyana (f) $7,500
Silver Menace $7,500
Wholelottashakin $7,500
Wildcat Creek $7,500
Fine $7,206
My Due Process (f) $7,090
Fox Rules $7,000
Managed Account $6,800
Mr. Prankster $6,782
Venetian Sonata (f) $6,760
Silver Hustler (f) $6,250
Culotte (f) $6,093
Anna Sophia (f) $6,000
Bourbonesque (f) $6,000
Brown Eyed Nance (f) $6,000
Captain Webb $6,000
Conjure the Spirit (f) $6,000
Harbor Mist (f) $6,000
King Kid $6,000
Motown Men $6,000
Pend Oreille $6,000
Sheer Talent $6,000
Red Jack $5,833
Citizen Adocate (f) $5,000
Coach Royal $5,000
Colormesaichi (f) $5,000
Firehouse Red (f) $5,000
Gospel Gal (f) $5,000
Ill Conceived $5,000
Lotta Lovin $5,000
Loukas (f) $5,000
Royal Bonnie (f) $5,000
Yeardley (f) $5,000
Piskacha (f) $4,929
Customer Base (f) $4,826
Always Here Too (f) $4,800
Najjaar $4,763
Ted’s Folly $4,750
Born Bullish (f) $4,667
King of England $4,618
Defy Gravity (f) $4,500
Getupwiththesun $4,500
Good Morning Diva $4,500
Grace for Grace (f) $4,500
Hannibal Lecter $4,500
Moonrush $4,500
Nitara (f) $4,500
Raconteur $4,333
Dream Pegasus (f) $4,000
Good Deed (f) $4,000
Table Three Ten (f) $4,000
Term Loan $4,000
Our Domain (f) $3,750
Burn the Mortgage $3,567
Tippy Toes (f) $3,213
Jomelo $3,067
Making Amends $3,067
Secret Consultant $3,067
Almusafa (f) $3,000
Awesome Belle (f) $3,000
Bahamian Squall $3,000
Hook It Up (f) $3,000
Illegally Blonde (f) $3,000
Italo $3,000
Kitty Kat Karly (f) $3,000
Lemon Splendor (f) $3,000
Made to Love Her (f) $3,000
Ms Pianist $3,000
Scorcher $3,000
Select Cat (f) $3,000
Take It Inside (f) $3,000
Threeanddonedan $3,000
Dixie Jackpot (f) $2,910
Hogy $2,760
Seen It All Before $2,309
Unbridled’s Note $2,261
Sky Dreamer (f) $2,045
Ten K Cat (f) $2,045
Annaclone (f) $2,000
Bataha (f) $2,000
Devil in Disguise $2,000
Hierro $2,000
Muchos Besos $2,000
Regal Betty (f) $2,000
Soft Whisper (f) $2,000
Super Candy $2,000
Vukovar (f) $2,000
Bear’s Taurus $1,924
Bwana Be Gone $1,924
Midnight Crooner $1,875
Politicallycorrect $1,875
Africanist $1,782
Saint Honore $1,782
Seve $1,782
Alexander Thegreat $1,750
Capetown Devil $1,750
Taxi Dancer (f) $1,734
Jamraa (f) $1,694
Baffle Me (f) $1,667
Perfect Trip $1,667
Phil Dancer $1,667
Copy My Swagger $1,666
Deliburnsky $1,500
High Heat $1,500
Scallion $1,500
Space Traveler $1,500
Voodoo Daddy $1,500
Bonaparte $1,115
Hot Speed $1,115
Hollywood Script $1,107
Purely Determined $1,107
Shocktime (f) $1,093
Ancil $1,000
Apprehender $1,000
Big Wednesday $1,000
Cheerleader (f) $1,000
Clip the Coupons $1,000
Coyote Breeze (f) $1,000
Danger Storm $1,000
E Valentino $1,000
Egg Drop (f) $1,000
Fairy Cat $1,000
Heiko $1,000
Hunt Crossing $1,000
King Coral $1,000
Musical Flair $1,000
Original Kitten (f) $1,000
Personal Interest $1,000
Priceless Shore $1,000
Side Road $1,000
Space Race $1,000
Sportswriter $1,000
Squid $1,000
Struck It Lucky (f) $1,000
Suns Out Guns Out $1,000
Tu Endie Wei (f) $1,000
Twelve Hundred $1,000
Two Months Rent $1,000
Ville $1,000
Yorona (f) $1,000
Z Rockstar $1,000
Inca Miss (f) $834
Junebugred $834
Forgotten People (f) $833
Awalkinthemoonlite (f) $800
Dreaming of Cara $800
Indyniable (f) $800
Lady Cohiba (f) $800
Mucho Mas Macho $800
Scatter a Star $800
Stephanoatsee $800
Alaura Michele (f) $667
Johannesbourbon $667
Salsa Mambo (f) $667
Skyring $667
Tanglewood Tale (f) $666
Curfew Tower $500
Downtown Driggs $500
Monastic $500
Smart Ellis $500
Bless My Halo $429
Charming Vixen $429
Falconess (f) $429
Honey Talk (f) $429
Quick Silver Song (f) $429
Soonerette (f) $429
Evil Kitten (f) $409
Quality Lass (f) $409
St Pancras (f) $409
Welcome Dance (f) $409
All Aquared Aqay $260
Cahill Chrome $260
Lady of Fifty $260
Rockinarz Recruit $260
Senor Rain $260

(f) – denotes Filly

*- DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information. The table of earnings may not include graded stakes earnings from events outside of Canada and the United States. Additionally, any possible post-race disqualifications affecting earnings may not be reflected.

Precocity Test – April 19th

admin — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 23:18:41 +0000

Last week, we demonstrated some limited promise with the new methodology. The horse sired by the stallion with the lowest precocity index won one of the four events we analyzed (SENT FORTH). While twenty-five percent of a small sample is not something to be proud of but it is at least encouraging.

On Thursday, April 19th, we will be afforded five juvenile races to continue testing the precocity index methodology. While the precocity index presents the simple idea of runners with a lower ‘pi’ are more likely to break their maidens first, we all know the pitfalls of single variable handicapping. One must also consider the human connections and the preparation as evident by workouts.

TEST RACE – 1

Aqueduct – April 19, 2012

Race 3 – 1:54 PM (all times local to the host track)

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Purse $60,000. (up To $11,400 Nysbfoa) For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 118 Lbs. Four And One Half Furlongs.

PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer Sire PI

1 The Party’s Here (FL) 2/F L1 R Silvera 115 M Peebles BLACK MAMBO 238

2 Majestic Wind (FL) 2/G I Ortiz, Jr. 118 M Miceli MAJESTIC WARRIOR *

3 Ju Ju Eyeballs (MD) 2/F L1 J R Velazquez 115 W A Ward GATORS N BEARS 291

4 Shanghai Bobby (KY) 2/C L1 R Napravnik 118 T A Pletcher HARLAN’S HOLIDAY 311

5 Do You Smell Smoke (FL) 2/C E Castro 118 E C McClellan SMOKE GLACKEN 257

6 Zip City Miss (NY) 2/F M J Luzzi 115 W Badgett, Jr. CITY ZIP 223

7 Cabs Are Here (FL) 2/F L1 W A Garcia 108⁷ M Peebles SALUTE THE SARGE *

The following is the single-variable prediction of the order of finish for horse runners represented by a stallion with a precocity index at the time of the race:

Zip City Miss – The Party’s Here – Do You Smell Smoke – Ju Ju Eyeballs – Shanghai Bobby

TEST RACE – 2

Golden Gate Fields – April 19, 2012

Race 1 – 12:45 PM (all times local to the host track)

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Purse $22,500. (Plus $6,750 – CBOIF – California Bred Owner Fund). For Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old. Weight, 118 Lbs. Two Furlongs. (All Weather Track)

PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer Sire PI

1 Ypsi Magik (CA) 2/F C Martinez 118 A Lage RIO VERDE ~245

2 Snackable (CA) 2/F B Harvey 118 E L Jackson GLOBALIZE ~256

3 Egyptian Femme (CA) 2/F J Arriaga 118 E L Jackson GLOBALIZE ~256

4 Janetta’s Ginger (CA) 2/F C Herrera 118 J G Aguilar RIO VERDE ~245

5 Slugger Girl (CA) 2/F D R Sanchez 118 A Lage RIO VERDE ~245

6 Mysweetguarani (CA) 2/F J A Velazquez 118 R G Gonzalez GUARANI *

This is a bad race to test the precocity method. The race consists of runners from three sires of which two have low confidence precocity indices while the third has no rating.

TEST RACE – 3

Keeneland – April 19, 2012

Race 3 – 2:07 PM Double-Exacta-Trifecta($.50 min)-Pick 3($.50 min) (Races 3-4-5)-Superfecta($.10 min)

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Purse $50,000. (Includes $4,800 – KTDF – Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 118 Lbs. Four And One Half Furlongs. (All Weather Track)

P# PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L Sire PI

1 1 Justcallmemoni (PA) 2/F L J A Garcia 115 W A Ward 8/5 EXCHANGE RATE 264

1A 6 Muggsy (FL) 2/G L J A Garcia 118 W A Ward 8/5 HIGH COTTON 237

2 3 Ready Set Whoa (KY) 2/G L M Straight 118 D Preston 5/1 READY’S IMAGE *

2B 4 Greengrassofyoming (KY) 2/C L M Straight 118 D Preston 5/1 QUEST ~215

3 7 Larry Zip It (KY) 2/C J Graham 118 L Lay 6/1 RUN AWAY AND HIDE *

3C 8 Jenna Lee Kuma (KY) 2/C LA J Graham 118 L Lay 6/1 KUMA 272

4 2 Praetorian Prefect (KY) 2/C LA D A Sarvis 118 J P Pucek 8/1 SUCCESSFUL APPEAL 297

5 5 Count On Silver (KY) 2/C L M Pedroza 118 J R Dyer 6/1 EUROSILVER ~286

6 9 Zoloto (KY) 2/C L J Castellano 118 D Miller 5/2 MEDAGLIA D’ORO 302

7 10 Concho Halo (LA) 2/C L R A Vazquez 118 J G Hunt 20/1 LYDGATE 290

The following is the single-variable prediction of the order of finish for horse runners represented by a stallion with a precocity index at the time of the race:

Greengrassofyoming – Muggsy – Justcallmemoni – Jenna Lee Kuma – Count of Silver – Concho Halo – Praetorian Prefect – Zoloto

TEST RACE – 4

Lone Star Park – April 19, 2012

Race 2 – 7:03 PM Exacta / Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) $.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Purse $20,000. (plus Up To $1,200 Open Atb) For Texas Accredited Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 118 Lbs. (TTA Sales Futurity nominees preferred.). Four And One Half Furlongs.

P# PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L Sire PI

1 5 Tuned Crusader (TX) 2/C L1 C R Rosier 118 C R White 3/1 CHATAIN *

1A 6 Nev’s Legend (TX) 2/C L1 E McNeil 118 C R White 3/1 WIMBLEDON ~240

2 1 Flying Datrick (TX) 2/C L1 E T Vera 1135 J R Bustamante 5/2 DATRICK *

3 2 Texas Bling (TX) 2/C L1 L Taylor 118 D Durham 8/1 TOO MUCH BLING 251

4 3 Release the Magic (TX) 2/G G Mora 1135 M B Davidson 10/1 MAGIC CAT ~320

5 4 Seeking Payday (TX) 2/C L1 B T Morales 118 M R Whitelaw 2/1 SEEKING THE DIA *

6 7 Spendaridge (TX) 2/C F T Rodriguez 118 R Kotara 12/1 BEN’S RIDGE *

7 8 Abbie Kates Way (TX) 2/G L1 J Collier 118 B A Jenkins 8/1 UNCLE ABBIE ~257

The following is the single-variable prediction of the order of finish for horse runners represented by a stallion with a precocity index at the time of the race:

Nev’s Legend – Texas Bling – Abbie Kates Way – Release the Magic

TEST RACE – 5

Santa Anita Park – April 19, 2012

Race 1 – 1:00 PM

MAIDEN CLAIMING $100,000

Purse $35,000. For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 120 Lbs. Claiming Price $100,000 (California Bred or Sired Horses Preferred). Two Furlongs.

PP Horse A/S Med Claim $ Jockey Wgt Trainer Sire PI

1 Best Pointe (CA) 2/C $100,000 K Stra 120 D Dunham BEST MINISTER *

2 Bertrandos Express (CA) 2/G L $100,000 G Arriaga 120 F L Gonzalez EXPRESSIONIST ~412

3 Downtown Joe (CA) 2/C $100,000 L R Gonzalez 120 A C Ortiz MOMENTUM ~286

4 Panfila (CA) 2/F $100,000 O Figueroa 117 M Calvario WILD CAT RIDE *

5 K Court (KY) 2/C $100,000 E Flores 1155 J Armstrong DONERAILE COURT 250

6 Valley Spirit (CA) 2/C $100,000 D P Vergara 120 G Stute AWESOME SPIRIT ~319

7 Surelylu’s Andante (CA) 2/F $100,000 A L Castanon 117 R J Lucas CINDAGO ~349

8 El Talisman (CA) 2/C $100,000 J Cruz 120 F L Gonzalez ROYAL LEGACY ~318

9 Confederate Recon (LA) 2/C $100,000 A Delgadillo 120 E J Guillot SALUTE THE SARGE *

The following is the single-variable prediction of the order of finish for horse runners represented by a stallion with a precocity index at the time of the race:

K Court – Downtown Joe – El Talisman – Valley Spirit – Surelylu’s Andante – Bertrando’s Express

*- DISCLAIMER: I am employed by the Maryland Jockey Club at the time this race is scheduled to run. Comments contained in this post are purely an observation of a pedigree theory in development and should not be construed as advice on how to wager on the event in question.

4/16 Earnings Update

admin — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 17:55:43 +0000

Preference criteria for entries into the Triple Crown events including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes are based upon a runner’s lifetime Graded Stakes Earnings.

The list below is the current top 450 earners for the sophomores through the Beaumont Stakes which ran on Sunday, April 15^th. Fillies, turf runners, and non-Triple Crown nominees have been included for you never know which owners will catch ‘Derby Fever.’

RANK* HORSE GRADED $

Hansen $1,550,000
My Miss Aurelia (f) $1,350,000
Daddy Long Legs $1,294,030
Union Rags $1,170,000
Dullahan $855,000
Stephanie’s Kitten (f) $850,446
Creative Cause $836,000
Wrote (IRE) $756,630
Grace Hall (f) $740,000
Gemologist $703,855
Sabercat $701,429
Take Charge Indy $698,400
Secret Circle $670,000
Bodemeister $660,000
Hero of Order $617,375
I’ll Have Another $601,000
Daddy Nose Best $545,558
Weemissfrankie (f) $522,120
Yang Tse Kiang (FR) $422,211
Liaison $393,000
Alpha $380,000
Believe You Can (f) $369,734
Prospective $367,327
Trinniberg $324,500
Done Talking $311,000
Karlovy Vary (f) $301,694
Drill $300,000
Now I Know (f) $300,000
On Fire Baby (f) $286,729
Killer Graces (f) $284,200
Went the Day Well $282,000
Broadway’s Alibi (f) $270,000
Rousing Sermon $270,000
Yara (f) $269,000
Willa B Awesome (f) $264,000
Mark Valeski $260,000
El Padrino $250,000
Excaper $240,736
Algorithms $240,000
Stopshoppingmaria (f) $240,000
Basmati $220,000
Reveron $220,000
Summer Applause (f) $220,000
Reneesgotzip (f) $200,000
Isn’t He Clever $191,333
Eden’s Moon (f) $186,000
Optimizer $184,708
Self Preservation (f) $183,040
Disposablepleasure (f) $182,500
Mamma Kimbo (f) $180,000
Majestic City $170,000
Castaway $162,000
Northern Passion (f) $157,845
Finale $153,345
Currency Swap $150,000
Millionreasonswhy (f) $145,000
My Adonis $140,000
Hard Not to Like (f) $135,112
Brother Francis $135,000
Dayatthespa (f) $130,892
Sweet Cat (f) $129,000
Battle Hardened $127,000
Charm the Maker (f) $125,400
Animal Spirits $120,000
Inny Minnie (f) $120,000
O’Prado Again $120,000
Mr. Bowling $115,848
Lucky Chappy (IRE) $115,000
Howe Great $112,500
Sacristy (f) $110,000
Heart of Destiny (f) $106,734
Jack’s in the Deck $105,000
Longview Drive $102,834
Lady of Shamrock (f) $102,000
Scatman $101,875
Morgan’s Guerilla $100,000
Teeth of the Dog $100,000
Farraaj (IRE) $99,000
Shared Property $96,700
Stirred Up $96,000
Gypsy Robin (f) $95,000
Holiday Promise $94,000
Vexor $91,000
Agave Kiss (f) $90,000
Blueskiesnrainbows $90,000
Mighty Caroline (f) $90,000
Overdriven $90,000
Say a Novena (f) $90,000
Somali Lemonade (f) $90,000
State of Play $90,000
Thunder Moccasin $90,000
Tiger Walk $90,000
Jake Mo $88,333
Amie’s Dini (f) $85,000
Cozzetti $85,000
Empire Way $85,000
Georgie’s Angel (f) $84,234
News Pending $80,000
Motor City $78,383
Gung Ho $76,000
Z Dager $75,000
Handsome Mike $73,500
Golden Ticket $70,000
Flashy Lassie (f) $69,145
Exfactor $67,748
Sky Kingdom $64,000
She Digs Me $63,000
Seven Lively Sins $61,697
Power World $61,354
More Than Love (f) $61,000
In Lingerie (f) $60,140
Out of Bounds $60,000
Pure Gossip (f) $60,000
Questing (f) $60,000
Shkspeare Shaliyah $60,000
So Brilliant $60,000
Stoney Fleece $60,000
Up (IRE) (f) $60,000
Zo Impressive (f) $60,000
Hakama $59,000
Rocket Twentyone (f) $58,433
And Why Not (f) $58,253
No Spin $56,353
Neck ‘n Neck $56,000
Candrea (f) $55,000
Ever So Lucky $50,377
Hardened Wildcat $50,000
Judy the Beauty (f) $50,000
Welcome Guest (f) $50,000
Lady Pecan (f) $49,906
Heavy Breathing $48,875
Emerald Gold (f) $45,000
How Do I Win $45,000
Paynter $45,000
Yvete Sangalo (f) $45,000
Speightscity $40,800
Avie’s Sense (f) $40,000
Cigar Street $40,000
Discreet Dancer $40,000
Finnegans Wake $40,000
Putthebabiesdown (f) $40,000
Souper Speedy $40,000
Wildcat’s Smile (f) $40,000
Lockout $38,484
Holy Candy $37,500
Goldrush Girl (f) $37,177
Atigun $36,453
Midnight Transfer $36,000
Laurie’s Rocket $35,333
Bourbonstreetgirl (f) $34,850
Coalport $34,500
Stat $33,334
Our Entourage $33,000
Ender Knievel $32,000
Fort Loudon $32,000
Captivating Lass (f) $31,800
Saturday Launch $31,000
American Act $30,000
Blingo $30,000
Byrama (GB) $30,000
Corderosa (f) $30,000
Dixie Strike (f) $30,000
Hearts of Red (f) $30,000
Hello Prince $30,000
Il Villano $30,000
Jemima’s Pearl (f) $30,000
Miss Netta (f) $30,000
Open Water (f) $30,000
Regalo Miss (f) $30,000
Right to Vote $30,000
River Kiss (f) $30,000
Ruler of Dubai $30,000
Team Six $30,000
The Lumber Guy $30,000
Brigand $29,000
True Feelings (f) $27,500
Adirondack King $26,429
Reckless Jerry $26,428
Big Blue Nation $25,000
Cyber Secret $24,282
Tequila Factor $24,000
Csaba $23,000
Black Rhino $22,500
Colonial Empress (f) $22,500
Jagati $22,500
Tarpy’s Goal $22,500
The Cat’s All That $22,500
Five Star Momma (f) $21,423
Ravelo’s Boy $20,500
Devious Intent (f) $20,000
Fourt Loudon $20,000
Frolic’s Revenge (f) $20,000
Kitten’s Kid $20,000
Mystic Mama (f) $20,000
Perennial Song (f) $20,000
Small Kitchen (f) $20,000
Starship Flair (f) $20,000
Dancing Solo (f) $19,400
Bluedacious $19,242
Glinda the Good (f) $18,120
Alydarla (f) $18,000
Bella’s Fantasy (f) $18,000
Heleonor Rugby (f) $18,000
Mighty Monsoon $18,000
Spring Hill Farm $17,500
Essence of Bubbles (f) $17,280
Night Tide $17,000
Timely Tally $16,751
Back Spin (f) $16,088
Maritimer $15,335
Stealcase $15,100
Bellacourt (f) $15,000
Dancing Anna (f) $15,000
Gun Boat $15,000
Holiday Soiree (f) $15,000
Indian Evening $15,000
Livi Makenzie (f) $15,000
My Gi Gi (f) $15,000
Quick Wit $15,000
Seeker $15,000
Takes the Gold $15,000
Wait Til Dawn (f) $15,000
Wild Truffles (f) $15,000
Spirited Miss (f) $14,472
Pee H Dee $13,929
Maan $13,500
Afford $13,000
Golden History (f) $12,882
Nuffsaid Nuffsaid (f0 $12,500
Ring It Up $12,500
Singlet (f) $12,500
Chalybeate Springs $12,032
Battle Force $12,000
Hodge $12,000
Island Paradise (f) $12,000
Justanoldsong $12,000
Pretension $12,000
Silver Max $12,000
Splendiferous $12,000
Unveiled Heat $12,000
Bet to Win (f) $11,734
Ann of the Dance (f) $11,560
Quick Flip (f) $11,000
Your Special Day (f) $11,000
Friscan $10,927
Russian Greek $10,875
Queen Teuta (f) $10,711
Knock Rock $10,500
Casual Trick $10,000
Delightful Magic (f) $10,000
Dougs Buddy $10,000
Fantastic Song $10,000
Fire Alarm $10,000
Force de La Nature $10,000
New Wave (f) $10,000
Street Life $10,000
Tiz Moe $10,000
Wee Party (f) $10,000
Windsurfer $10,000
Toxis (f) $9,700
All Squared Away $9,410
Spring Eclipse (f) $9,194
Invocation $9,000
Let’s Get Crackin $9,000
Off Limits (f) $9,000
Spare Change (f) $9,000
King and Crusader $8,500
Sum of the Parts $8,463
Aubby K (f) $8,063
Consortium $8,000
Dan and Sheila $8,000
Tizanexpense $8,000
Argentine Tango $7,500
Banner Bill $7,500
Good Looking Girl (f) $7,500
Large Kaufy $7,500
Majestic Stride $7,500
Milania $7,500
Princess Reyana (f) $7,500
Silver Menace $7,500
Wholelottashakin $7,500
Wildcat Creek $7,500
Fine $7,206
My Due Process (f) $7,090
Fox Rules $7,000
Managed Account $6,800
Mr. Prankster $6,782
Venetian Sonata (f) $6,760
Silver Hustler (f) $6,250
Culotte (f) $6,093
Anna Sophia (f) $6,000
Bourbonesque (f) $6,000
Brown Eyed Nance (f) $6,000
Captain Webb $6,000
Conjure the Spirit (f) $6,000
Harbor Mist (f) $6,000
King Kid $6,000
Motown Men $6,000
Pend Oreille $6,000
Sheer Talent $6,000
Red Jack $5,833
Citizen Adocate (f) $5,000
Coach Royal $5,000
Colormesaichi (f) $5,000
Gospel Gal (f) $5,000
Ill Conceived $5,000
Lotta Lovin $5,000
Loukas (f) $5,000
Royal Bonnie (f) $5,000
Yeardley (f) $5,000
Piskacha (f) $4,929
Customer Base (f) $4,826
Always Here Too (f) $4,800
Najjaar $4,763
Ted’s Folly $4,750
Born Bullish (f) $4,667
King of England $4,618
Defy Gravity (f) $4,500
Getupwiththesun $4,500
Good Morning Diva $4,500
Grace for Grace (f) $4,500
Hannibal Lecter $4,500
Moonrush $4,500
Nitara (f) $4,500
Raconteur $4,333
Good Deed (f) $4,000
Table Three Ten (f) $4,000
Our Domain (f) $3,750
Burn the Mortgage $3,567
Tippy Toes (f) $3,213
Jomelo $3,067
Making Amends $3,067
Secret Consultant $3,067
Almusafa (f) $3,000
Awesome Belle (f) $3,000
Bahamian Squall $3,000
Hook It Up (f) $3,000
Illegally Blonde (f) $3,000
Italo $3,000
Kitty Kat Karly (f) $3,000
Made to Love Her (f) $3,000
Ms Pianist $3,000
Scorcher $3,000
Select Cat (f) $3,000
Take It Inside (f) $3,000
Threeanddonedan $3,000
Dixie Jackpot (f) $2,910
Hogy $2,760
Seen It All Before $2,309
Unbridled’s Note $2,261
Sky Dreamer (f) $2,045
Ten K Cat (f) $2,045
Annaclone (f) $2,000
Bataha (f) $2,000
Devil in Disguise $2,000
Hierro $2,000
Muchos Besos $2,000
Regal Betty (f) $2,000
Soft Whisper (f) $2,000
Super Candy $2,000
Vukovar (f) $2,000
Bear’s Taurus $1,924
Bwana Be Gone $1,924
Midnight Crooner $1,875
Politicallycorrect $1,875
Africanist $1,782
Saint Honore $1,782
Seve $1,782
Alexander Thegreat $1,750
Capetown Devil $1,750
Hammers Terro $1,750
Taxi Dancer (f) $1,734
Jamraa (f) $1,694
Baffle Me (f) $1,667
Perfect Trip $1,667
Phil Dancer $1,667
Copy My Swagger $1,666
Deliburnsky $1,500
High Heat $1,500
Scallion $1,500
Space Traveler $1,500
Voodoo Daddy $1,500
Bonaparte $1,115
Hot Speed $1,115
Hollywood Script $1,107
Purely Determined $1,107
Shocktime (f) $1,093
Ancil $1,000
Apprehender $1,000
Big Wednesday $1,000
Cheerleader (f) $1,000
Clip the Coupons $1,000
Coyote Breeze (f) $1,000
Danger Storm $1,000
Dream Pegasus (f) $1,000
E Valentino $1,000
Egg Drop (f) $1,000
Fairy Cat $1,000
Heiko $1,000
Hunt Crossing $1,000
King Coral $1,000
Musical Flair $1,000
Original Kitten (f) $1,000
Personal Interest $1,000
Priceless Shore $1,000
Side Road $1,000
Space Race $1,000
Sportswriter $1,000
Squid $1,000
Struck It Lucky (f) $1,000
Suns Out Guns Out $1,000
Tu Endie Wei (f) $1,000
Twelve Hundred $1,000
Two Months Rent $1,000
Ville $1,000
Yorona (f) $1,000
Z Rockstar $1,000
Inca Miss (f) $834
Junebugred $834
Forgotten People (f) $833
Awalkinthemoonlite (f) $800
Dreaming of Cara $800
Indyniable (f) $800
Lady Cohiba (f) $800
Mucho Mas Macho $800
Scatter a Star $800
Stephanoatsee $800
Alaura Michele (f) $667
Salsa Mambo (f) $667
Tanglewood Tale (f) $666
Curfew Tower $500
Downtown Driggs $500
Gold Megalith $500
Monastic $500
Smart Ellis $500
Bless My Halo $429
Charming Vixen $429
Falconess (f) $429
Honey Talk (f) $429
Quick Silver Song (f) $429
Soonerette (f) $429
Evil Kitten (f) $409
Quality Lass (f) $409
St Pancras (f) $409
Welcome Dance (f) $409
All Aquared Aqay $260
Cahill Chrome $260
Lady of Fifty $260
Rockinarz Recruit $260
Senor Rain $260

(f) – denotes Filly

Precocity Test – Friday the 13th

admin — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 06:02:14 +0000

On Friday, April 13th, we will be afforded two opportunities to test using the precocity index to predict the results of a juvenile thoroughbred race (see below). While the precocity index presents the simple idea of runners with a lower ‘pi’ are more likely to break their maidens first, we all know the pitfalls of single variable handicapping. One must also consider the human connections and the preparation as evident by workouts.

Keeneland – April 13, 2012

Race 2 – 1:36 PM Daily Double-Exacta-Trifecta($.50 min)-Pick 3($.50 min)(Races 2-3-4)-Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)-Superfecta($.10 min)

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Purse $50,000. (Includes $4,800 – KTDF – Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old. Weight, 118 Lbs. Four And One Half Furlongs. (All Weather Track)

P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L

1 1 Flirtinwiththeboss (KY) 2/F L M Pedroza 118 W A Ward 3/1

Sire – Street Boss ‘pi’ – *

2 2 Luvmealldayindyusa (PA) 2/F LA R B Homeister, Jr. 118 E R Reed 4/1

Sire – Chelokee ‘pi’ – *

3 3 Live and Learn (KY) 2/F L M Straight 118 D Preston 20/1

Sire – Quiet American ‘pi’ – 300

4 4 Emma’s Holy Bee (NY) 2/F L A Pusac 118 T C Short 20/1

Sire – Defer ‘pi’ – 270

5 5 Allaboutcaroline (KY) 2/F LA J Castellano 118 E R Reed 3/1

Sire – Value Plus ‘pi’ – 270

6 6 Fantacious (LA) 2/F LA M Mena 118 W B Calhoun 5/1

Sire – Dehere ‘pi’ – 289

7 7 Lignite (KY) 2/F L J Sanchez 118 W A Ward 5/2

Sire – Run Away and hide ‘pi’ – *

8 8 Brook’s Secret (KY) 2/F L M R Torres 118 T C Short 20/1

Sire – Henny Hughes ‘pi’ – 262

Only five of the ten entrants were sired by stallions without a ‘precocity index’ to date — some of those are ‘pi’ with low confidence.

For our first test, we will predict that the relative order of finish will be: Brook’s Secret, Emma’s Holy Bee/Allaboutcaroline, Allaboutcaroline/Emma’s Holy Bee, Fantacious, and Live and Learn . Of the five factorial (5!) possible combinations of the five runners in the body of the race with precocity indices, we expect 8 – 4/5 – 5/4 – 6 – 3. Without sufficient data to predict the other five runners, it is entirely possible these five will be the last five to cross the finish line. We can only predict the respective order.

As usual we acknowledge that the precocity index is a single variable in a complex system of predicting the results of a race. Post positions in dashes and trainer strength in juvenile races are usually a significant factor in these type of events. Unlike with some of the earlier two-year old races this year, the precocity index points to a longshot on the morning line.

On the same day, we will also get the test the concept at Pimlico in the race below.

Race 3 – 2:06 PM EXACTA, 50 cent TRIFECTA & 10 cent SUPERFECTA / 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5)

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Purse $33,000. (Plus $8,200 – MBF – Maryland Bred Fund). For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 120 Lbs. Four And One Half Furlongs.

P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L

1 3 Backyard Boogie (PA) 2/F A Delgado 117 R B McCutchen 12/1

Sire – Xchanger ‘pi’ – *

2 10 Video Storm (MD) 2/G L1A R Monterrey 120 J E Salzman, Sr. 6/1

Sire – Fairbanks ‘pi’ – *

3 1 Xhonor (MD) 2/C L1A X Perez 120 T E Salzman 10/1

Sire – Officer ‘pi’ – 292

4 2 Knock Two Times (PA) 2/C L1 J Joyce 120 J E Salzman, Jr. 8/1

Sire – Student Council ‘pi’ – *

5 4 Private Tutor (PA) 2/C L1A V Santiago 120 J J Robb 5/1

Sire – Salute the Sarge ‘pi’ – *

6 5 Worldseriesatatude (MD) 2/F L1 E Camacho 117 J E Salzman, Jr. 4/1

Sire – Smoke Glacken ‘pi’ – 257

7 6 Do You Smell Smoke (FL) 2/C W P Otero 120 E C McClellan 6/1

Sire – Bandini ‘pi’ – 279

8 7 Bee Rapid (PA) 2/C L1A M Franklin 120 J J Robb 10/1

Sire – Greatness ‘pi’ – ~265

9 8 Sent Forth (PA) 2/C L1A S Russell 120 P Schoenthal 9/2

Sire – Great Notion ‘pi’ – ~235

10 9 Grateful Nation (MD) 2/C L1 F Boyce 120 R W Small 10/1

Sire – Deputy Storm ‘pi’ – ~297

Also Eligibles:

1A 11 Let’s Drink On It (PA) 2/F A Delgado 117 R B McCutchen 12/1

Sire – First Samurai ‘pi’ – 295

2X 12 Time to Speed (MD) 2/C L1A G R Delgado 120 J E Salzman, Sr. 6/1

Sire – Dance With Ravens ‘pi’ – 265

Only six of the ten entrants in the body and both also-eligibles were sired by stallions without a ‘precocity index’ to date — some of those are ‘pi’ with low confidence.

For our first test, we will predict that the relative order of finish will be: Sent Forth, Worldseriesatatude, Bee Rapid, Do You Smell Smoke, Xhonor, and Grateful Nation. Of the six factorial (6!) possible combinations of the six runners in the body of the race with precocity indices, we expect 9 – 6 – 8 – 7 – 3 – 10. Without sufficient data to predict the other four runners, it is entirely possible these six will be the last six to cross the finish line. We can only predict the respective order.

In the event that one of the also-eligibles draws in the reader will have to insert the runner in to the precocity index order to adjust the predict finish.

Succeed or fail – we will try again.

Precocity Index – Another Keeneland Test

admin — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 23:01:24 +0000

On Thursday, April 12th, we will be afforded another opportunity to test using the precocity index to predict the results of a juvenile thoroughbred race (see below). While the precocity index presents the simple idea of runners with a lower ‘pi’ are more likely to break their maidens first, we all know the pitfalls of single variable handicapping. One must also consider the human connections and the preparation as evident by workouts.

Keeneland – April 12, 2012

Race 5 – 3:09 PM Double-Exacta-Trifecta($.50 min)-Pick 3($.50 min)(Races 5-6-7)-Pick 5($.50 min)(Races 5-9)Superfecta($.10 min)

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Purse $50,000. (Includes $4,800 – KTDF – Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 118 Lbs. Four And One Half Furlongs. (All Weather Track)

P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L

1 1 Handsome Jack (FL) 2/G L J Sanchez 118 W A Ward 5/2

Sire – Bring the heat ‘pi’ – 174

2 2 I’m Boundtoscore (IN) 2/C L V Lebron 118 T Rankin 12/1

Sire – Even the Score ‘pi’ – ~328

3 3 The Roofer (PA) 2/G L J A Garcia 118 W A Ward 5/2

Sire – Fairbanks ‘pi’ – *

4 4 Alls Im Saying (KY) 2/C L M Pedroza 118 P McEntee 15/1

Sire – Taste of Paradise ‘pi’ – ~290

5 5 Fitz Is Dancing (KY) 2/G L M Straight 118 T W Short 20/1

Sire – Seattle Fitz (ARG) ‘pi’ – 238

6 6 I’mgonnaknockuout (KY) 2/G L M R Torres 118 T C Short 20/1

Sire – Quest ‘pi’ – ~215

7 7 Nails in the Fence (KY) 2/C L O Rossi 118 A N Hillyard 15/1

Sire – Heatseeker (IRE) ‘pi’ – *

8 8 Purge to Purge (KY) 2/C L J McKee 118 J A Hancock 10/1

Sire – Purge ‘pi’ – 307

9 9 Ready Set Whoa (KY) 2/G L F Villeda 1117 D Preston 15/1

Sire – Ready’s Image ‘pi’ – *

10 10 Joha (KY) 2/C LA J R Leparoux 118 M J Maker 3/1

Sire – Johar ‘pi’ – 292

Only seven of the ten entrants were sired by stallions without a ‘precocity index’ to date — some of those are ‘pi’ with low confidence.

For our first test, we will predict that the relative order of finish will be: Handsome jack, I’mgonnaknockuout, Fitz is Dancing, Alls Im Saying, Joha, Purge to Purge, and I’m Boundtoscore. Of the seven factorial (7!) possible combinations of the seven runners in the body of the race with precocity indices, we expect 1 – 6 – 5 – 4 – 10 – 8 – 2. Without sufficeint data to predict the other three runners, it is entirely possible these eight will be the last seven to cross the finish line. We can only predict the respective order.

As usual we acknowledge that the precocity index is a single variable in a complex system of predicting the results of a race. Post positions in dashes and trainer strength in juvenile races are usually a significant factor in these type of events. However, we are encouraged that the runner with the lowest ‘pi’ is trained by a trainer notorious for successfully prepping first time starters especially babies.

Succeed or fail – we will try again with the two-year-old event on Friday at Keeneland.

Precocity – Maryland Test

admin — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 01:32:34 +0000

Pimlico – April 12, 2012

Race 3 – 2:13 PM EXACTA, 50 cent TRIFECTA & 10 cent SUPERFECTA / 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5)

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Purse $33,000. (Plus $8,200 – MBF – Maryland Bred Fund). For Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old. Weight, 120 Lbs. Four And One Half Furlongs.

P# PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L

2 1 Wildcat Connection (KY) 2/F L1 S Russell 120 P Schoenthal 8/1

Sire – Ready’s Image ‘pi’ – *

3 2 Set to Smoke (FL) 2/F L1A X Perez 120 J E Salzman, Sr. 6/1

Sire – Exclusive Quality ‘pi’ – 272

4 3 Craftwell’s Belle (MD) 2/F L1A W Ho 120 J J Robb 8/1

Sire – St. Averil ‘pi’ – 291

5 4 Miss E. T. A. (PA) 2/F L1 A Castellano, Jr. 120 P Schoenthal 8/1

Sire – Afleet Alex ‘pi’ – 264

6 5 Brenda’s Way (MD) 2/F L1 J Joyce 120 J E Salzman, Jr. 3/1

Sire – Weigelia ‘pi’ – *

7 6 Stormy Adventure (MD) 2/F L1 E Camacho 120 J E Salzman, Jr. 4/1

Sire – Deputy Storm ‘pi’ – ~297

8 7 Snow Princess (KY) 2/F L1A V Santiago 120 J J Robb 10/1

Sire – After Market ‘pi’ – 264

9 8 Clara Lives Strong (KY) 2/F L1A E D Rodriguez 120 J E Salzman, Sr. 8/1

Sire – Forestry ‘pi’ – 210

10 9 Take the Train (PA) 2/F L1 J Navarro 120 V A Testerman 12/1

Sire – Silver Train ‘pi’ – 298

11 10 Lively Times (MD) 2/F L1 F Boyce 120 R W Small 8/1

Sire – Two Punch ‘pi’ – 244

Also Eligibles:

1 11 Let’s Drink On It (PA) 2/F A Delgado 120 R B McCutchen 12/1

Sire – First Samurai ‘pi’ – 295

1A 14 Backyard Boogie (PA) 2/F A Delgado 120 R B McCutchen 12/1

Sire – Officer ‘pi’ – 292

12 12 Jupiter Rain (NY) 2/F L1A R Monterrey 120 T E Salzman 10/1

Sire – Defer ‘pi’ – 291

13 13 Ju Ju Eyeballs (MD) 2/F L1 J M Rios 120 W A Ward 2/1

Sire – Gators N Bears ‘pi’ – 291

Only eight of the ten entrants within the body of the race and all of the also-eligibles were sired by stallions without a ‘precocity index’ to date — some of those are ‘pi’ with low confidence.

For our first test, we will predict that the relative order of finish will be: Clara Lives Strong, Lively Times, Miss E. T. A./Snow Princess, Snow Princess/Miss E. T. A., Set to Smoke, Stormy Adventure, Take the Train, and Craftwell’s Belle. Of the eight factorial (8!) possible combinations of the eight runners in the body of the race with precocity indices, we expect 9 – 11- 5/8 – 8/5 – 3 – 7 – 10 – 4. Without sufficeint data to predict the other two runners, it is entirely possible these eight will be the last eight to cross the finish line. We can only predict the respective order.

If one of the runners on the also-eligibles draws into the body of the race, then precocity index would not place any of those four runners above the first four rankings.

As usual we acknowledge that the precocity index is a single variable in a complex system of predicting the results of a race. Post positions in dashes and trainer strength in juvenile races are usually a significant factor in these type of events. However, we are encouraged that the runner with the lowest ‘pi’ is trained by a trainer notorious for successfully prepping first time starters especially babies.

Succeed or fail – we will try again with the two-year-old open event on Friday at Pimlico.

3yos Graded Earnings

admin — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 14:07:20 +0000

Preference criteria for entries into the Triple Crown events including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes are based upon a runner’s lifetime Graded Stakes Earnings.

The list below is the current top 439 earners for the sophomores through the stakes which ran on Saturday, April 7^th. Fillies, turf runners, and non-Triple Crown nominees have been included for you never know which owners will catch ‘Derby Fever.’

RANK* HORSE GRADED $

Hansen $1,400,000
My Miss Aurelia (f) $1,350,000
Daddy Long Legs $1,294,030
Union Rags $1,170,000
Stephanie’s Kitten (f) $850,446
Creative Cause $836,000
Wrote (IRE) $756,630
Grace Hall (f) $740,000
Gemologist $703,855
Take Charge Indy $698,400
Hero of Order $615,500
Sabercat $601,429
I’ll Have Another $601,000
Daddy Nose Best $545,558
Weemissfrankie (f) $522,120
Secret Circle $470,000
Yang Tse Kiang (FR) $422,211 d
Dullahan $405,000
Liaison $393,000
Alpha $380,000
Believe You Can (f) $369,734
Prospective $365,452
Trinniberg $324,500
Done Talking $311,000
Karlovy Vary (f) $301,694
Drill $300,000
Now I Know (f) $300,000
On Fire Baby (f) $286,729
Killer Graces (f) $284,200
Went the Day Well $282,000
Broadway’s Alibi (f) $270,000
Rousing Sermon $270,000
Yara (f) $269,000
Willa B Awesome (f) $264,000
Mark Valeski $260,000
El Padrino $250,000
Excaper $240,736
Algorithms $240,000
Stopshoppingmaria (f) $240,000
Basmati $220,000
Reveron $220,000
Summer Applause (f) $220,000
Reneesgotzip (f) $200,000
Isn’t He Clever $188,000
Eden’s Moon (f) $186,000
Self Preservation (f) $183,040
Disposablepleasure (f) $182,500
Optimizer $181,375
Majestic City $170,000
Castaway $162,000
Northern Passion (f) $157,845
Finale $153,345
Currency Swap $150,000
Millionreasonswhy (f) $145,000
My Adonis $140,000
Hard Not to Like (f) $135,112
Brother Francis $135,000
Dayatthespa (f) $130,892
Sweet Cat (f) $129,000
Battle Hardened $127,000
Charm the Maker (f) $125,400
Animal Spirits $120,000
Inny Minnie (f) $120,000
O’Prado Again $120,000
Mr. Bowling $115,848
Lucky Chappy (IRE) $115,000
Heart of Destiny (f) $106,734
Jack’s in the Deck $105,000
Longview Drive $102,834
Lady of Shamrock (f) $102,000
Morgan’s Guerilla $100,000
Scatman $100,000
Teeth of the Dog $100,000
Farraaj (IRE) $99,000
Shared Property $96,700
Stirred Up $96,000
Holiday Promise $94,000
Vexor $91,000
Agave Kiss (f) $90,000
Blueskiesnrainbows $90,000
Howe Great $90,000
Mighty Caroline (f) $90,000
Overdriven $90,000
Say a Novena (f) $90,000
Somali Lemonade (f) $90,000
State of Play $90,000
Thunder Moccasin $90,000
Tiger Walk $90,000
Empire Way $85,000
Jake Mo $85,000
Georgie’s Angel (f) $84,234
News Pending $80,000
Sacristy (f) $80,000
Motor City $78,383
Z Dager $75,000
Handsome Mike $73,500
Golden Ticket $70,000
Flashy Lassie (f) $69,145
Exfactor $67,748
Sky Kingdom $64,000
She Digs Me $63,000
Seven Lively Sins $61,697
Power World $61,354
More Than Love (f) $61,000
In Lingerie (f) $60,140
Bodemeister $60,000
Out of Bounds $60,000
Pure Gossip (f) $60,000
Questing (f) $60,000
Shkspeare Shaliyah $60,000
So Brilliant $60,000
Stoney Fleece $60,000
Up (IRE) (f) $60,000
Zo Impressive (f) $60,000
Hakama $59,000
Rocket Twentyone (f) $58,433
And Why Not (f) $58,253
No Spin $56,353
Neck ‘n Neck $56,000
Candrea (f) $55,000
Hardened Wildcat $50,000
Judy the Beauty (f) $50,000
Welcome Guest (f) $50,000
Lady Pecan (f) $49,906
Ever So Lucky $48,502
Heavy Breathing $47,000
Emerald Gold (f) $45,000
How Do I Win $45,000
Paynter $45,000
Yvete Sangalo (f) $45,000
Speightscity $40,800
Avie’s Sense (f) $40,000
Cigar Street $40,000
Discreet Dancer $40,000
Finnegans Wake $40,000
Putthebabiesdown (f) $40,000
Souper Speedy $40,000
Wildcat’s Smile (f) $40,000
Lockout $38,484
Goldrush Girl (f) $37,177
Midnight Transfer $36,000
Laurie’s Rocket $35,333
Cozzetti $35,000
Bourbonstreetgirl (f) $34,850
Coalport $34,500
Our Entourage $33,000
Ender Knievel $32,000
Fort Loudon $32,000
Captivating Lass (f) $31,800
Saturday Launch $31,000
American Act $30,000
Blingo $30,000
Byrama (GB) $30,000
Corderosa (f) $30,000
Dixie Strike (f) $30,000
Hearts of Red (f) $30,000
Hello Prince $30,000
Il Villano $30,000
Miss Netta (f) $30,000
Open Water (f) $30,000
Regalo Miss (f) $30,000
Right to Vote $30,000
River Kiss (f) $30,000
Ruler of Dubai $30,000
Stat $30,000
Team Six $30,000
The Lumber Guy $30,000
Brigand $29,000
True Feelings (f) $27,500
Adirondack King $26,429
Reckless Jerry $26,428
Amie’s Dini (f) $25,000
Big Blue Nation $25,000
Cyber Secret $24,282
Tequila Factor $24,000
Csaba $23,000
Black Rhino $22,500
Colonial Empress (f) $22,500
Jagati $22,500
Tarpy’s Goal $22,500
The Cat’s All That $22,500
Five Star Momma (f) $21,423
Ravelo’s Boy $20,500
Devious Intent (f) $20,000
Fourt Loudon $20,000
Frolic’s Revenge (f) $20,000
Kitten’s Kid $20,000
Mystic Mama (f) $20,000
Perennial Song (f) $20,000
Small Kitchen (f) $20,000
Starship Flair (f) $20,000
Dancing Solo (f) $19,400
Bluedacious $19,242
Glinda the Good (f) $18,120
Alydarla (f) $18,000
Bella’s Fantasy (f) $18,000
Heleonor Rugby (f) $18,000
Mighty Monsoon $18,000
Spring Hill Farm $17,500
Essence of Bubbles (f) $17,280
Night Tide $17,000
Timely Tally $16,751
Back Spin (f) $16,088
Maritimer $15,335
Stealcase $15,100
Bellacourt (f) $15,000
Dancing Anna (f) $15,000
Gun Boat $15,000
Holiday Soiree (f) $15,000
Indian Evening $15,000
My Gi Gi (f) $15,000
Quick Wit $15,000
Seeker $15,000
Takes the Gold $15,000
Wild Truffles (f) $15,000
Spirited Miss (f) $14,472
Pee H Dee $13,929
Maan $13,500
Afford $13,000
Golden History (f) $12,882
Nuffsaid Nuffsaid (f0 $12,500
Ring It Up $12,500
Singlet (f) $12,500
Chalybeate Springs $12,032
Battle Force $12,000
Hodge $12,000
Island Paradise (f) $12,000
Justanoldsong $12,000
Pretension $12,000
Silver Max $12,000
Splendiferous $12,000
Unveiled Heat $12,000
Bet to Win (f) $11,734
Ann of the Dance (f) $11,560
Quick Flip (f) $11,000
Your Special Day (f) $11,000
Friscan $10,927
Queen Teuta (f) $10,711
Knock Rock $10,500
Casual Trick $10,000
Delightful Magic (f) $10,000
Dougs Buddy $10,000
Fantastic Song $10,000
Fire Alarm $10,000
Force de La Nature $10,000
New Wave (f) $10,000
Street Life $10,000
Tiz Moe $10,000
Wee Party (f) $10,000
Windsurfer $10,000
Toxis (f) $9,700
All Squared Away $9,410
Spring Eclipse (f) $9,194
Invocation $9,000
Let’s Get Crackin $9,000
Russian Greek $9,000
Spare Change (f) $9,000
King and Crusader $8,500
Sum of the Parts $8,463
Aubby K (f) $8,063
Consortium $8,000
Dan and Sheila $8,000
Tizanexpense $8,000
Argentine Tango $7,500
Banner Bill $7,500
Good Looking Girl (f) $7,500
Large Kaufy $7,500
Majestic Stride $7,500
Princess Reyana (f) $7,500
Silver Menace $7,500
Wholelottashakin $7,500
Wildcat Creek $7,500
Fine $7,206
My Due Process (f) $7,090
Fox Rules $7,000
Managed Account $6,800
Mr. Prankster $6,782
Venetian Sonata (f) $6,760
Atigun $6,453
Silver Hustler (f) $6,250
Culotte (f) $6,093
Anna Sophia (f) $6,000
Bourbonesque (f) $6,000
Brown Eyed Nance (f) $6,000
Captain Webb $6,000
Conjure the Spirit (f) $6,000
Harbor Mist (f) $6,000
King Kid $6,000
Motown Men $6,000
Pend Oreille $6,000
Sheer Talent $6,000
Red Jack $5,833
Citizen Adocate (f) $5,000
Coach Royal $5,000
Colormesaichi (f) $5,000
Gospel Gal (f) $5,000
Gypsy Robin (f) $5,000
Ill Conceived $5,000
Lotta Lovin $5,000
Loukas (f) $5,000
Royal Bonnie (f) $5,000
Yeardley (f) $5,000
Customer Base (f) $4,826
Always Here Too (f) $4,800
Ted’s Folly $4,750
King of England $4,618
Defy Gravity (f) $4,500
Getupwiththesun $4,500
Good Morning Diva $4,500
Grace for Grace (f) $4,500
Hannibal Lecter $4,500
Moonrush $4,500
Nitara (f) $4,500
Good Deed (f) $4,000
Table Three Ten (f) $4,000
Our Domain (f) $3,750
Burn the Mortgage $3,567
Tippy Toes (f) $3,213
Jomelo $3,067
Making Amends $3,067
Secret Consultant $3,067
Almusafa (f) $3,000
Awesome Belle (f) $3,000
Bahamian Squall $3,000
Hook It Up (f) $3,000
Italo $3,000
Made to Love Her (f) $3,000
Ms Pianist $3,000
Scorcher $3,000
Select Cat (f) $3,000
Take It Inside (f) $3,000
Threeanddonedan $3,000
Dixie Jackpot (f) $2,910
Hogy $2,760
Seen It All Before $2,309
Unbridled’s Note $2,261
Sky Dreamer (f) $2,045
Ten K Cat (f) $2,045
Annaclone (f) $2,000
Bataha (f) $2,000
Devil in Disguise $2,000
Hierro $2,000
Muchos Besos $2,000
Regal Betty (f) $2,000
Soft Whisper (f) $2,000
Super Candy $2,000
Vukovar (f) $2,000
Bear’s Taurus $1,924
Bwana Be Gone $1,924
Africanist $1,782
Saint Honore $1,782
Seve $1,782
Alexander Thegreat $1,750
Capetown Devil $1,750
Hammers Terro $1,750
Taxi Dancer (f) $1,734
Jamraa (f) $1,694
Baffle Me (f) $1,667
Born Bullish (f) $1,667
Perfect Trip $1,667
Phil Dancer $1,667
Copy My Swagger $1,666
Deliburnsky $1,500
High Heat $1,500
Scallion $1,500
Space Traveler $1,500
Voodoo Daddy $1,500
Najjaar $1,429
Bonaparte $1,115
Hot Speed $1,115
Hollywood Script $1,107
Purely Determined $1,107
Shocktime (f) $1,093
Ancil $1,000
Apprehender $1,000
Big Wednesday $1,000
Cheerleader (f) $1,000
Clip the Coupons $1,000
Coyote Breeze (f) $1,000
Danger Storm $1,000
Dream Pegasus (f) $1,000
E Valentino $1,000
Egg Drop (f) $1,000
Fairy Cat $1,000
Gung Ho $1,000
Heiko $1,000
Hunt Crossing $1,000
King Coral $1,000
Musical Flair $1,000
Original Kitten (f) $1,000
Personal Interest $1,000
Priceless Shore $1,000
Raconteur $1,000
Side Road $1,000
Space Race $1,000
Sportswriter $1,000
Squid $1,000
Struck It Lucky (f) $1,000
Suns Out Guns Out $1,000
Tu Endie Wei (f) $1,000
Twelve Hundred $1,000
Two Months Rent $1,000
Ville $1,000
Yorona (f) $1,000
Z Rockstar $1,000
Inca Miss (f) $834
Junebugred $834
Forgotten People (f) $833
Awalkinthemoonlite (f) $800
Dreaming of Cara $800
Indyniable (f) $800
Lady Cohiba (f) $800
Mucho Mas Macho $800
Scatter a Star $800
Stephanoatsee $800
Alaura Michele (f) $667
Salsa Mambo (f) $667
Tanglewood Tale (f) $666
Curfew Tower $500
Downtown Driggs $500
Gold Megalith $500
Monastic $500
Smart Ellis $500
Bless My Halo $429
Charming Vixen $429
Falconess (f) $429
Honey Talk (f) $429
Piskacha (f) $429
Quick Silver Song (f) $429
Soonerette (f) $429
Evil Kitten (f) $409
Quality Lass (f) $409
St Pancras (f) $409
Welcome Dance (f) $409
All Aquared Aqay $260
Cahill Chrome $260
Lady of Fifty $260
Rockinarz Recruit $260
Senor Rain $260

(f) – denotes Filly

Precocity Index Round 3 – Opening Day Keeneland

admin — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 17:15:54 +0000

On Friday, April 6th, we will be afforded the third opportunity to test using the precocity index to predict the results of a juvenile thoroughbred race (see below). While the precocity index presents the simple idea of runners with a lower ‘pi’ are more likely to break their maidens first, we all know the pitfalls of single variable handicapping. One must also consider the human connections and the preparation as evident by workouts.

Keeneland – April 6, 2012

Race 1 – 1:05 PM MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Purse $50,000. (Includes $4,800 – KTDF – Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 118 Lbs. Four And One Half Furlongs. (All Weather Track)

PP Horse Jockey Trainer
1 Count On Silver M Pedroza J R Dyer

Sire – Eurosilver ‘pi’ – ~286

2 Larry Zip It J Graham L Lay

Sire – Run Away And Hide ‘pi’ – *

3 Concho Halo D A Sarvis J G Hunt

Sire – Lydgate ‘pi’ – 290

4 Barisoff J R Velazquez W A Ward

Sire – Lydgate ‘pi’ – 300

5 Fire Your Boss M Mena W B Calhoun

Sire – Street Boss ‘pi’ – *

6 Greengrassofyoming M Straight D Preston

Sire – Quest ‘pi’ – ~215

7 Skylander J R Velazquez W A Ward

Sire – Bring the Heat ‘pi’ – 174

8 I’mgonnaknockuout M R Torres T C Short

Sire – Quest ‘pi’ – ~215

9 High Diver G Saez W M Catalano

Sire – Sky Diving ‘pi’ – *

10 Skilltopaythebills A Pusac T C Short

Sire – Sir Shackelton ‘pi’ – ~384

Only seven of the ten entrants were sired by stallions without a ‘precocity index’ to date — some of those are ‘pi’ with low confidence.

For our first test, we will predict that the relative order of finish will be: Skylander, Greengrassofyoming and/or I’mgonnaknockuout, I’mgonnaknockuout and/or Greengrassofyoming, Count on Silver, Larry Zip It, Concho Halo and then Skilltopaythebills. Of the seven factorial (7!) possible combinations of the seven runners with precocity indices, we expect 7 – 6/8 – 6/8 – 1 – 2 – 3 – 10. Without sufficeint data to predict the other three runners, it is entirely possible these seven will be the last seven to cross the finish line. We can only predict the respective order.

As usual we acknowledge that the precocity index is a single variable in a complex system of predicting the results of a race. However, we are encouraged that the runner with the lowest ‘pi’ is trained by a trainer notorious for successfully prepping first time starters especially babies.

Succeed or fail – we will try again with the next two-year-old event.

4/1 Earnings Update

admin — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 00:45:52 +0000

First off, I owe a tip of the hat the a blog-commenter (Indulto) for pointing out a clerical error on my part. The earnings of two runners have been corrected in this current update.

Preference criteria for entries into the Triple Crown events including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes are based upon a runner’s lifetime Graded Stakes Earnings.

The list below is the current top (~~421~~ 423)earners for the sophomores through the Louisiana Derby which ran on Sunday, April 1^st. Fillies, turf runners, and non-Triple Crown nominees have been included for you never know which owners will catch ‘Derby Fever.’

(~~The current list does not reflect graded earnings from Dubai. However, those earnings do count in earning a place in the starting gate for Triple Crown races.~~ Edits made to reflect the mistakes pointed out in the first comment.)

RANK* HORSE GRADED $

Hansen $1,400,000
My Miss Aurelia (f) $1,350,000
Union Rags $1,170,000
Stephanie’s Kitten (f) $800,446
Grace Hall (f) $740,000
Creative Cause $686,000
Hero of Order $615,500
Sabercat $601,429
Daddy Nose Best $545,558
Wrote (IRE) $540,000
Weemissfrankie (f) $522,120
Secret Circle $470,000
Yang Tse Kiang (FR) $422,211
Dullahan $405,000
Liaison $393,000
Believe You Can (f) $369,734
Prospective $365,452
Drill $300,000
Now I Know (f) $300,000
On Fire Baby (f) $286,729
Went the Day Well $282,000
Rousing Sermon $270,000
Yara (f) $269,000
Killer Graces (f) $266,200
Willa B Awesome (f) $264,000
Mark Valeski $260,000
El Padrino $250,000
Excaper $240,736
Algorithms $240,000
Stopshoppingmaria (f) $240,000
Basmati $220,000
Reveron $220,000
Summer Applause (f) $220,000
Reneesgotzip (f) $200,000
Isn’t He Clever $188,000
Eden’s Moon (f) $186,000
Self Preservation (f) $183,040
Disposablepleasure (f) $182,500
Optimizer $181,375
Alpha $180,000
Trinniberg $174,500
Majestic City $170,000
Castaway $162,000
Take Charge Indy $158,400
Northern Passion (f) $157,845
Finale $153,345
I’ll Have Another $151,000
Currency Swap $150,000
Dayatthespa (f) $130,892
My Adonis $130,000
Sweet Cat (f) $129,000
Battle Hardened $127,000
Animal Spirits $120,000
Broadway’s Alibi (f) $120,000
Brother Francis $120,000
Inny Minnie (f) $120,000
Millionreasonswhy (f) $120,000
O’Prado Again $120,000
Charm the Maker (f) $116,400
Mr. Bowling $115,848
Lucky Chappy (IRE) $115,000
Jack’s in the Deck $105,000
Gemologist $103,855
Longview Drive $102,834
Scatman $100,000
Farraaj (IRE) $99,000
Shared Property $96,700
Stirred Up $96,000
Holiday Promise $94,000
Vexor $91,000
Agave Kiss (f) $90,000
Howe Great $90,000
Mighty Caroline (f) $90,000
Overdriven $90,000
Say a Novena (f) $90,000
Somali Lemonade (f) $90,000
State of Play $90,000
Thunder Moccasin $90,000
Empire Way $85,000
Jake Mo $85,000
Georgie’s Angel (f) $84,234
Heart of Destiny (f) $81,734
News Pending $80,000
Sacristy (f) $80,000
Motor City $78,383
Z Dager $75,000
Handsome Mike $73,500
Golden Ticket $70,000
Flashy Lassie (f) $69,145
Exfactor $67,748
Sky Kingdom $64,000
She Digs Me $63,000
Seven Lively Sins $61,697
Power World $61,354
More Than Love (f) $61,000
In Lingerie (f) $60,140
Bodemeister $60,000
Out of Bounds $60,000
Pure Gossip (f) $60,000
Questing (f) $60,000
Shkspeare Shaliyah $60,000
So Brilliant $60,000
Stoney Fleece $60,000
Up (IRE) (f) $60,000
Zo Impressive (f) $60,000
Rocket Twentyone (f) $58,433
And Why Not (f) $58,253
No Spin $56,353
Neck ‘n Neck $56,000
Candrea (f) $55,000
Judy the Beauty (f) $50,000
Lady Pecan (f) $49,906
Ever So Lucky $48,502
Heavy Breathing $47,000
Emerald Gold (f) $45,000
Yvete Sangalo (f) $45,000
Speightscity $40,800
Avie’s Sense (f) $40,000
Cigar Street $40,000
Discreet Dancer $40,000
Finnegans Wake $40,000
Putthebabiesdown (f) $40,000
Souper Speedy $40,000
Tiger Walk $40,000
Wildcat’s Smile (f) $40,000
Lockout $38,484
Midnight Transfer $36,000
Laurie’s Rocket $35,333
Hard Not to Like (f) $35,112
Cozzetti $35,000
Bourbonstreetgirl (f) $34,850
Coalport $34,500
Goldrush Girl (f) $32,177
Ender Knievel $32,000
Fort Loudon $32,000
Captivating Lass (f) $31,800
American Act $30,000
Blingo $30,000
Corderosa (f) $30,000
Hearts of Red (f) $30,000
Hello Prince $30,000
Il Villano $30,000
Miss Netta (f) $30,000
Open Water (f) $30,000
Regalo Miss (f) $30,000
Right to Vote $30,000
River Kiss (f) $30,000
Ruler of Dubai $30,000
Stat $30,000
Team Six $30,000
Brigand $29,000
True Feelings (f) $27,500
Adirondack King $26,429
Reckless Jerry $26,428
Amie’s Dini (f) $25,000
Big Blue Nation $25,000
Cyber Secret $24,282
Tequila Factor $24,000
Csaba $23,000
Black Rhino $22,500
Colonial Empress (f) $22,500
Jagati $22,500
Tarpy’s Goal $22,500
The Cat’s All That $22,500
Five Star Momma (f) $21,423
Ravelo’s Boy $20,500
Devious Intent (f) $20,000
Fourt Loudon $20,000
Frolic’s Revenge (f) $20,000
How Do I Win $20,000
Kitten’s Kid $20,000
Mystic Mama (f) $20,000
Perennial Song (f) $20,000
Small Kitchen (f) $20,000
Starship Flair (f) $20,000
Dancing Solo (f) $19,400
Bluedacious $19,242
Glinda the Good (f) $18,120
Alydarla (f) $18,000
Bella’s Fantasy (f) $18,000
Heleonor Rugby (f) $18,000
Mighty Monsoon $18,000
Our Entourage $18,000
Spring Hill Farm $17,500
Essence of Bubbles (f) $17,280
Night Tide $17,000
Timely Tally $16,751
Back Spin (f) $16,088
Maritimer $15,335
Stealcase $15,100
Bellacourt (f) $15,000
Dancing Anna (f) $15,000
Dixie Strike (f) $15,000
Gun Boat $15,000
Holiday Soiree (f) $15,000
Indian Evening $15,000
My Gi Gi (f) $15,000
Quick Wit $15,000
Seeker $15,000
Takes the Gold $15,000
Wild Truffles (f) $15,000
Spirited Miss (f) $14,472
Pee H Dee $13,929
Afford $13,000
Golden History (f) $12,882
Ring It Up $12,500
Chalybeate Springs $12,032
Battle Force $12,000
Hodge $12,000
Island Paradise (f) $12,000
Justanoldsong $12,000
Lady of Shamrock (f) $12,000
Pretension $12,000
Silver Max $12,000
Splendiferous $12,000
Unveiled Heat $12,000
Bet to Win (f) $11,734
Ann of the Dance (f) $11,560
Done Talking $11,000
Quick Flip (f) $11,000
Your Special Day (f) $11,000
Friscan $10,927
Queen Teuta (f) $10,711
Knock Rock $10,500
Delightful Magic (f) $10,000
Dougs Buddy $10,000
Fantastic Song $10,000
Fire Alarm $10,000
Force de La Nature $10,000
New Wave (f) $10,000
Tiz Moe $10,000
Wee Party (f) $10,000
Windsurfer $10,000
Toxis (f) $9,700
All Squared Away $9,410
Spring Eclipse (f) $9,194
Invocation $9,000
Let’s Get Crackin $9,000
Russian Greek $9,000
Spare Change (f) $9,000
Sum of the Parts $8,463
Aubby K (f) $8,063
Consortium $8,000
Dan and Sheila $8,000
Tizanexpense $8,000
Argentine Tango $7,500
Banner Bill $7,500
Good Looking Girl (f) $7,500
Large Kaufy $7,500
Majestic Stride $7,500
Princess Reyana (f) $7,500
Silver Menace $7,500
Wholelottashakin $7,500
Wildcat Creek $7,500
Fine $7,206
My Due Process (f) $7,090
Fox Rules $7,000
Managed Account $6,800
Mr. Prankster $6,782
Venetian Sonata (f) $6,760
Atigun $6,453
Silver Hustler (f) $6,250
Culotte (f) $6,093
Anna Sophia (f) $6,000
Brown Eyed Nance (f) $6,000
Captain Webb $6,000
Conjure the Spirit (f) $6,000
Harbor Mist (f) $6,000
King Kid $6,000
Motown Men $6,000
Pend Oreille $6,000
Sheer Talent $6,000
Red Jack $5,833
Citizen Adocate (f) $5,000
Coach Royal $5,000
Colormesaichi (f) $5,000
Gospel Gal (f) $5,000
Gypsy Robin (f) $5,000
Ill Conceived $5,000
Loukas (f) $5,000
Nuffsaid Nuffsaid (f0 $5,000
Royal Bonnie (f) $5,000
Yeardley (f) $5,000
Customer Base (f) $4,826
Always Here Too (f) $4,800
Ted’s Folly $4,750
King of England $4,618
Defy Gravity (f) $4,500
Getupwiththesun $4,500
Good Morning Diva $4,500
Grace for Grace (f) $4,500
Hannibal Lecter $4,500
Moonrush $4,500
Nitara (f) $4,500
Good Deed (f) $4,000
Hakama $4,000
Table Three Ten (f) $4,000
Our Domain (f) $3,750
Burn the Mortgage $3,567
Tippy Toes (f) $3,213
Jomelo $3,067
Making Amends $3,067
Secret Consultant $3,067
Almusafa (f) $3,000
Awesome Belle (f) $3,000
Bahamian Squall $3,000
Hook It Up (f) $3,000
Italo $3,000
Made to Love Her (f) $3,000
Scorcher $3,000
Select Cat (f) $3,000
Take It Inside (f) $3,000
Threeanddonedan $3,000
Dixie Jackpot (f) $2,910
Hogy $2,760
Seen It All Before $2,309
Unbridled’s Note $2,261
Sky Dreamer (f) $2,045
Ten K Cat (f) $2,045
Annaclone (f) $2,000
Bataha (f) $2,000
Devil in Disguise $2,000
Hierro $2,000
Muchos Besos $2,000
Regal Betty (f) $2,000
Soft Whisper (f) $2,000
Super Candy $2,000
Vukovar (f) $2,000
Bear’s Taurus $1,924
Bwana Be Gone $1,924
Africanist $1,782
Saint Honore $1,782
Seve $1,782
Alexander Thegreat $1,750
Capetown Devil $1,750
Hammers Terro $1,750
Taxi Dancer (f) $1,734
Jamraa (f) $1,694
Karlovy Vary (f) $1,694
Baffle Me (f) $1,667
Born Bullish (f) $1,667
Deliburnsky $1,500
High Heat $1,500
Scallion $1,500
Space Traveler $1,500
Voodoo Daddy $1,500
Najjaar $1,429
Bonaparte $1,115
Hot Speed $1,115
Hollywood Script $1,107
Purely Determined $1,107
Shocktime (f) $1,093
Ancil $1,000
Apprehender $1,000
Big Wednesday $1,000
Bourbonesque (f) $1,000
Cheerleader (f) $1,000
Clip the Coupons $1,000
Coyote Breeze (f) $1,000
Danger Storm $1,000
Dream Pegasus (f) $1,000
E Valentino $1,000
Egg Drop (f) $1,000
Fairy Cat $1,000
Gung Ho $1,000
Heiko $1,000
Hunt Crossing $1,000
King and Crusader $1,000
King Coral $1,000
Maan $1,000
Musical Flair $1,000
Original Kitten (f) $1,000
Personal Interest $1,000
Priceless Shore $1,000
Raconteur $1,000
Saturday Launch $1,000
Side Road $1,000
Space Race $1,000
Sportswriter $1,000
Squid $1,000
Struck It Lucky (f) $1,000
Suns Out Guns Out $1,000
Tu Endie Wei (f) $1,000
Twelve Hundred $1,000
Two Months Rent $1,000
Ville $1,000
Yorona (f) $1,000
Z Rockstar $1,000
Inca Miss (f) $834
Junebugred $834
Forgotten People (f) $833
Awalkinthemoonlite (f) $800
Dreaming of Cara $800
Indyniable (f) $800
Lady Cohiba (f) $800
Mucho Mas Macho $800
Scatter a Star $800
Stephanoatsee $800
Alaura Michele (f) $667
Salsa Mambo (f) $667
Tanglewood Tale (f) $666
Curfew Tower $500
Downtown Driggs $500
Gold Megalith $500
Monastic $500
Smart Ellis $500
Bless My Halo $429
Charming Vixen $429
Falconess (f) $429
Honey Talk (f) $429
Piskacha (f) $429
Quick Silver Song (f) $429
Soonerette (f) $429
Evil Kitten (f) $409
Quality Lass (f) $409
St Pancras (f) $409
Welcome Dance (f) $409
All Aquared Aqay $260
Cahill Chrome $260
Lady of Fifty $260
Rockinarz Recruit $260
Senor Rain $260

(f) – denotes Filly

Astronomical*

admin — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 02:14:02 +0000

Once in a blue moon, horseplayers need to know scientific notation – Friday, March 30, 2012 will be one of those days at the Fair Grounds.

Due to inclement weather and the approaching end of the meet, the race track decided catch up on missing days with a double-header (something baseball has long since forgotten). 18 races on the card is not the reason that you will need to remember scientific notation from your high school math and science class.

The reason is the one-time only wager that will be offered on that card — a Pick-18. That’s right you will have to select correctly eighteen consecutive winners to score. Since the conceivable options are unfathomable, the minimum bet size on the wager is $0.10.

With entries, the pre-scratch maximum field size for the 18 races are listed below:

Race	Maximum Field Size
1	7
2	9
3	10
4	12
5	9
6	14
7	10
8	8
9	10
10	14
11	10
12	12
13	12
14	8
15	12
16	8
17	12
18	11

An all-burger (ticket with all combinations in all races) will yield 1,557,428,101,447,680,000 combinations. For short, there will be a little over 1.5 quintillion combinations available for this ticket. Since the minimum wager is only a dime, then the cost of the all-burger would be approximately $155 quadrillion.

For reference, the gross federal debt owed by the US Federal government in fiscal year 2012 is $16.4 trillion.¹ In other words, one would need approximately 10,000 times more money than the federal debt to buy every combination.

Now let’s assume, that there is one scratch per race prior to the start of the first on Friday, the number of combinations drop to 235,204,438,282,894,000.00 or in scientific notation 2.35E+17. For comparison, the once planet Pluto is 5.91 trillion meters from the Sun or 5.91E+12 meters.²

Reportedly, the world’s richest man, Carlos Slim Helu (Latin American telecom magnet is worth $69 billion.³ If Senor Helu wanted to liquidate his total assets and convert them into Pick-18 tickets, then he would be able to buy 690 billion combinations or 6.91E+11 (remember the minimum ticket price is only a dime.

THE RICHEST MAN IN THE WORLD COULD ONLY COVER 1 IN 10,000,000 COMBINATIONS.

In other words, everybody is playing for the consolation ticket which goes to the individual(s) who have selected the most winners. In the (un)fortunate event that anyone correctly identifies all 18 winners correctly, (s)he will likely have to spend one-third on legal fees to defend themselves in a Congressional hearing. If they are successfully able to fend off the politicians, then they can expect to lose half to the tax-man.

However, you say that favorites win 33% of the time (the heuristic is wrong but we will save that for another day. What are the odds of hitting the Pick-18 by singling the favorites? One-third to the eighteenth power — 2.54E+9 to 1. The likelihood of the favorites winning all 18 races is only 1 in 2,500,000,000.

Hopefully, by now, I have motivated you into playing for the consolation for fun. The highest probability to select the most winners is to single the favorites in each race assuming that the win pools are indeed an efficient market. For the cost of a dime, you have the best chance of hitting the most winners. Unfortunately, lottery style parimutuel wagers are rarely efficient. You would likely have to share the pool (less the 25% take-out) with multiple people, thus making the all-favorite ticket an extreme underlay.

So let’s now give up on being realistic with this wager, since it is unrealistic to expect any profit. YOU ESSENTIALLY HAVE NO POSITIVE EXPECTATION TO WIN.

One is left stabbing in the dark for a PowerBall-like score. Powerball’s largest payoff was on the order of $3.65E+8.⁴ There is no way that Friday’s pool will exceed that of a PowerBall pool much less that of the largest Pick-6 horseracing pools. For comparison, the handle on last year’s Breeders’ Cup Saturday Pick-6 was $3,639,126.00.⁵

Let’s for a moment assume that Friday’s Pick-18 pool will be equal to that of the Breeders’ Cup, then there would be a prize pool of $2,729,344.50. It would be foolish to buy more than half of the pool. So the upper limit for a ticket would be about 1.36E+7 combinations give or take a few.

Let’s say that Donald Trump or Warren Buffet wanted to take their chances with buying a half the pool, what kind of ticket could you create.

A 1x1x1x1x1x1x1x1x1x1x1x1x1x1x1x1x1x1 ticket would cost $0.10.

A 2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2 ticket would cost $26,214.40.

A 3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3 ticket would cost $38,742,048.90.

Oops!!! We are over our $1.5 MM budget. Let’s pick a two horses every third race to reduce our costs. A 2x3x3x2x3x3x2x3x3x2x3x3x2x3x3x2x3x3 ticket would cost $3,401,222.40.
Let’s single a horse every third race to reduce our costs. A 1x3x3x1x3x3x1x3x3x1x3x3x1x3x3x1x3x3 ticket would cost $53,144.10.

Let’s get serious now. One should not put more money into the Pick-18 than they would in a multi-week PowerBall carryover jackpot. So let’s assume that you are willing to blow a benjamin on crazy hope, what kind of ticket could you buy?

For $102.40, one could buy a 1x2x1x2x1x2x1x2x1x2x1x2x1x2x1x2x2x2 ticket. That is 8 singles and 10 doubles. Good Luck, you are going to need it.

As an exercise to yourself, see how well you would do with a fictitious $26,214.40 with two per race. With your two picks per race let’s assume that you are good enough to win each race 50% of the time and that it will take 12 winners or more to get the jackpot or at least a piece of it. Using WolframAlpha, we can calculate our success at 11.9% with this imaginary ticket.⁶ In order to obtain value, the winning ticket would have to pay $26,214,40 divided by 11.9%, or approximately $220,289.00. Assuming you got the only winning ticket and a 25% takeout, the pool would have to exceed $293,718.77.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – THE PICK-18 IS A LOW PROBABILITY WAGER THAT WILL LIKELY PAYOUT AN UNDERLAY VALUE.

¹ – http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_debt_chart.html

² – http://www.universetoday.com/13891/distance-to-pluto/

³ – http://www.forbes.com/billionaires/

⁴ – http://www.lotteryuniverse.com/powerball-history.aspx

⁵ – http://www.equibase.com/yearbook/Chart.cfm?tk=CD&rd=2011-11-05&rn=11&de=D&cy=USA

⁶ – http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=18+coin+tosses+with++12+or+more+heads

*- DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.