L I N E M A K E R S

2/21 Update – Juvenile Graded Stakes Earnings

admin — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 17:40:58 +0000

Preference criteria for entries into the Triple Crown events including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes are based upon a runner’s lifetime Graded Stakes Earnings.

The list below is the current top 346 earners for the sophomores through four graded stakes over the Presidents’ Day Weekend.

RANK* HORSE GRADED $

My Miss Aurelia (f) $1,350,000
Hansen $1,160,000
Union Rags $830,000
Stephanie’s Kitten (f) $800,446
Sabercat $600,000
Wrote (IRE) $540,000
Weemissfrankie (f) $522,120
Grace Hall (f) $510,000
Creative Cause $506,000
Dullahan $375,000
Liaison $375,000
Now I Know (f) $300,000
Drill $300,000
Killer Graces (f) $266,200
Excaper $240,736
Algorithms $240,000
Stopshoppingmaria (f) $240,000
Basmati $220,000
On Fire Baby (f) $211,729
Self Preservation (f) $183,040
Alpha $180,000
Majestic City $170,000
Secret Circle $170,000
Rousing Sermon $164,000
Prospective $155,452
Finale $153,345
Northern Passion (f) $153,345
I’ll Have Another $151,000
Currency Swap $150,000
Castaway $150,000
Daddy Nose Best $145,558
Sweet Cat (f) $129,000
Animal Spirits $120,000
Battle Hardened $120,000
Broadway’s Alibi (f) $120,000
Brother Francis $120,000
Disposablepleasure (f) $120,000
Millionreasonswhy (f) $120,000
O’Prado Again $120,000
Charm the Maker (f) $116,400
Mr. Bowling $115,848
Lucky Chappy (IRE) $115,000
Jack’s in the Deck $105,000
Gemologist $103,855
Longview Drive $102,834
Inny Minnie (f) $100,000
Farraaj (IRE) $99,000
Take Charge Indy $98,400
Vexor $91,000
Mighty Caroline (f) $90,000
Overdriven $90,000
Say a Novena (f) $90,000
Somali Lemonade (f) $90,000
State of Play $90,000
Thunder Moccasin $90,000
Empire Way $85,000
Trinniberg $84,500
Georgie’s Angel (f) $84,234
Heart of Destiny (f) $81,734
Sacristy (f) $80,000
Motor City $78,383
Optimizer $78,375
Shared Property $73,700
Flashy Lassie (f) $69,145
Willa B Awesome (f) $69,000
Exfactor $67,748
Sky Kingdom $64,000
She Digs Me $63,000
Believe You Can (f) $61,734
Seven Lively Sins $61,697
Power World $61,354
More Than Love (f) $60,000
Out of Bounds $60,000
Pure Gossip (f) $60,000
Questing (f) $60,000
Shkspeare Shaliyah $60,000
So Brilliant $60,000
Stoney Fleece $60,000
Up (IRE) (f) $60,000
Jake Mo $60,000
And Why Not (f) $58,253
Rocket Twentyone (f) $57,600
Candrea (f) $55,000
Judy the Beauty (f) $50,000
My Adonis $50,000
Handsome Mike $50,000
Scatman $50,000
Lady Pecan (f) $49,906
Emerald Gold (f) $45,000
Yvete Sangalo (f) $45,000
Dayatthespa (f) $40,892
Speightscity $40,800
Putthebabiesdown (f) $40,000
Souper Speedy $40,000
Wildcat’s Smile (f) $40,000
Lockout $38,484
Laurie’s Rocket $35,333
Hard Not to Like (f) $35,112
Z Dager $35,000
Ever So Lucky $33,502
Goldrush Girl (f) $32,177
Blingo $30,000
Bourbonstreetgirl (f) $30,000
Coalport $30,000
Il Villano $30,000
Miss Netta (f) $30,000
Right to Vote $30,000
River Kiss (f) $30,000
Ruler of Dubai $30,000
Stat $30,000
Team Six $30,000
American Act $30,000
Brigand $29,000
True Feelings (f) $27,500
Big Blue Nation $25,000
Reckless Jerry $25,000
Adirondak King $25,000
Black Rhino $22,500
Jagati $22,500
Tarpy’s Goal $22,500
Five Star Momma (f) $21,423
Devious Intent (f) $20,000
El Padrino $20,000
Fourt Loudon $20,000
Frolic’s Revenge (f) $20,000
How Do I Win $20,000
Kitten’s Kid $20,000
Mystic Mama (f) $20,000
Perennial Song (f) $20,000
Reveron $20,000
Starship Flair (f) $20,000
Tiger Walk $20,000
Bluedacious $19,242
Glinda the Good (f) $18,120
Heleonor Rugby (f) $18,000
Mighty Monsoon $18,000
Our Entourage $18,000
Essence of Bubbles (f) $17,280
Night Tide $17,000
Timely Tally $16,751
Back Spin (f) $16,088
Maritimer $15,335
Bellacourt (f) $15,000
Dancing Anna (f) $15,000
Gun Boat $15,000
Holiday Soiree (f) $15,000
Indian Evening $15,000
My Gi Gi (f) $15,000
Quick Wit $15,000
Seeker $15,000
Takes the Gold $15,000
Wild Truffles (f) $15,000
Spirited Miss (f) $14,472
Golden History (f) $12,882
Ring It Up $12,500
Pee H Dee $12,500
Chalybeate Springs $12,032
Battle Force $12,000
Hodge $12,000
Island Paradise (f) $12,000
Isn’t He Clever $12,000
Lady of Shamrock (f) $12,000
Silver Max $12,000
Splendiferous $12,000
Unveiled Heat $12,000
Bet to Win (f) $11,734
Ann of the Dance (f) $11,560
Quick Flip (f) $11,000
Friscan $10,927
Queen Teuta (f) $10,711
Knock Rock $10,500
Delightful Magic (f) $10,000
Done Talking $10,000
Dougs Buddy $10,000
Fantastic Song $10,000
Force de La Nature $10,000
New Wave (f) $10,000
Ravelo’s Boy $10,000
Tiz Moe $10,000
Wee Party (f) $10,000
Yara (f) $10,000
Cyber Secret $9,282
Spring Eclipse (f) $9,194
Invocation $9,000
Spare Change (f) $9,000
Let’s Get Crackin $9,000
Sum of the Parts $8,463
No Spin $8,353
Aubby K (f) $8,063
Consortium $8,000
Banner Bill $7,500
Good Looking Girl (f) $7,500
Large Kaufy $7,500
Wildcat Creek $7,500
Majestic Stride $7,500
Fine $7,206
My Due Process (f) $7,090
Dan and Sheila $7,000
Fox Rules $7,000
Managed Account $6,800
Venetian Sonata (f) $6,760
Culotte (f) $6,093
Anna Sophia (f) $6,000
Brown Eyed Nance (f) $6,000
Captain Webb $6,000
Harbor Mist (f) $6,000
King Kid $6,000
Motown Men $6,000
Neck ‘n Neck $6,000
Pend Oreille $6,000
Sheer Talent $6,000
Your Special Day (f) $6,000
Atigun $5,025
Citizen Adocate (f) $5,000
Colormesaichi (f) $5,000
Gospel Gal (f) $5,000
Gypsy Robin (f) $5,000
Loukas (f) $5,000
Royal Bonnie (f) $5,000
Yeardley (f) $5,000
Customer Base (f) $4,826
Always Here Too (f) $4,800
King of England $4,618
Defy Gravity (f) $4,500
Getupwiththesun $4,500
Grace for Grace (f) $4,500
Hannibal Lecter $4,500
Moonrush $4,500
Good Deed (f) $4,000
Hakama $4,000
Russian Greek $4,000
Burn the Mortgage $3,567
Hero of Order $3,500
Tippy Toes (f) $3,213
Jomelo $3,067
Making Amends $3,067
Secret Consultant $3,067
Alydarla (f) $3,000
Awesome Belle (f) $3,000
Hook It Up (f) $3,000
Italo $3,000
Made to Love Her (f) $3,000
Select Cat (f) $3,000
Take It Inside (f) $3,000
Threeanddonedan $3,000
Hogy $2,760
Seen It All Before $2,309
Sky Dreamer (f) $2,045
Ten K Cat (f) $2,045
Bataha (f) $2,000
Devil in Disguise $2,000
Hierro $2,000
Muchos Besos $2,000
Regal Betty (f) $2,000
Soft Whisper (f) $2,000
Super Candy $2,000
Vukovar (f) $2,000
Bear’s Taurus $1,924
Bwana Be Gone $1,924
Africanist $1,782
Mr. Prankster $1,782
Saint Honore $1,782
Seve $1,782
Alexander Thegreat $1,750
Capetown Devil $1,750
Hammers Terro $1,750
Ted’s Folly $1,750
Taxi Dancer (f) $1,734
Jamraa (f) $1,694
Karlovy Vary (f) $1,694
Baffle Me (f) $1,667
Born Bullish (f) $1,667
Deliburnsky $1,500
High Heat $1,500
Scallion $1,500
Space Traveler $1,500
Voodoo Daddy $1,500
Bonaparte $1,115
Hot Speed $1,115
Hollywood Script $1,107
Purely Determined $1,107
Shocktime (f) $1,093
Ancil $1,000
Cheerleader (f) $1,000
Clip the Coupons $1,000
Coyote Breeze (f) $1,000
Danger Storm $1,000
Dream Pegasus (f) $1,000
E Valentino $1,000
Egg Drop (f) $1,000
Fairy Cat $1,000
Gung Ho $1,000
Heiko $1,000
Hunt Crossing $1,000
Musical Flair $1,000
Personal Interest $1,000
Priceless Shore $1,000
Saturday Launch $1,000
Space Race $1,000
Sportswriter $1,000
Squid $1,000
Struck It Lucky (f) $1,000
Tu Endie Wei (f) $1,000
Twelve Hundred $1,000
Two Months Rent $1,000
Ville $1,000
Yorona (f) $1,000
Z Rockstar $1,000
King Coral $1,000
Apprehender $1,000
Big Wednesday $1,000
Junebugred $834
Unbridled’s Note $833
Red Jack $833
Awalkinthemoonlite (f) $800
Captivating Lass (f) $800
Dreaming of Cara $800
Indyniable (f) $800
Lady Cohiba (f) $800
Mucho Mas Macho $800
Scatter a Star $800
Stephanoatsee $800
Alaura Michele (f) $667
Salsa Mambo (f) $667
Tanglewood Tale (f) $666
Curfew Tower $500
Downtown Driggs $500
Gold Megalith $500
Monastic $500
Smart Ellis $500
Bless My Halo $429
Charming Vixen $429
Falconess (f) $429
Honey Talk (f) $429
Piskacha (f) $429
Quick Silver Song (f) $429
Soonerette (f) $429
Evil Kitten (f) $409
Quality Lass (f) $409
St Pancras (f) $409
Welcome Dance (f) $409
Lady of Fifty $260
All Aquared Aqay $260
Rockinarz Recruit $260
Senor Rain $260
Cahill Chrome $260

(f) – denotes Filly

*- DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information. The table of earnings may not include graded stakes earnings from events outside of Canada and the United States. Additionally, any possible post-race disqualifications affecting earnings may not be reflected.

Analysis of KY Derby Parimutuel Futures – Round 1

admin — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 15:30:43 +0000

Mike Battaglia had the unenviable job of asigning morning line odds to the 23 horses and the field in the first pari-mutuel futures pool for the 2012 Kentucky Derby. The structure of Battaglia’s line was the field, four contenders (Algorithms, Union Rags, Hansen, Discreet Dancer), a group at 20-to-1 odds, a group at 30-to-1 odds, and a group at 50-to-1 odds. The table below details the morning line and the eventual closing odds.*

Number	Name	Trainer	Morning Line	Parimutuel Odds	MLO Rank	PTO Rank
1	Algorithms	Pletcher	8	12	2	3
2	Alpha	McLaughlin	20	19	T6	6
3	Battle Hardened	Kenneally	30	46	T16	17
4	Creative Cause	Harrington	20	17	T6	5
5	Discreet Dancer	Pletcher	15	30	5	12
6	Dullahan	Romans	20	40	T6	15
7	El Padrino	Pletcher	20	16	T6	4
8	Empire Way	Harrington	50	33	T20	13
9	Ever So Lucky	Sheppard	20	55	T6	18
10	Fed Biz	Baffert	20	21	T6	7
11	Gemologist	Pletcher	20	22	T6	8
12	Hansen	Maker	12	26	4	10
13	I’ll Have Another	O’Neill	20	29	T6	11
14	Junebugred	Hobby	50	58	T20	20
15	Liaison	Baffert	20	56	T6	19
16	Longview Drive	Hollendorfer	50	99	T20	24
17	Midnight Transfer	Gaines	50	67	T20	21
18	Mr. Bowling	Jones	50	85	T20	23
19	Out of Bounds	Harty	20	23	T6	9
20	Rousing Sermon	Hollendorfer	30	71	T16	22
21	Sabercat	Asmussen	30	34	T16	14
22	Take Charge Indy	Byrne	30	42	T16	16
23	Union Rags	Matz	10	7	3	2
24	All Others		9/5	3/2	1	1

As a whole the line did a great job predicting how the masses would back runners 83 days in advance of one the nation’s most difficult races to handicap. The keystone selection is that of the favorite as the field by both Battaglia and the crowd. Historically, the field of all other three-year olds is the favorite in the first round of parimutuel futures for the Kentucky Derby.

Of the morning line’s contenders, two of the four made the top two non-field closing odds. Battaglia had reversed UNION RAGS and ALGORITHMS. HANSEN, the fourth choice on the morning line was only backed to a rank of tenth on the final odds. One can’t blame the linemaker for his assesment of the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes champion and leader of all males in the all-important graded stakes earnings list. There was no way that one would think that his recent loss to ALGORITHMS would drop his public support so much. The other contender miss, DISCREET DANCER, was the result of a judgement call. Understandably, Battaglia expected that the owner of the third highest Beyer Speed Figure (98 in his debut) to be well backed especially since the undefeated colt is trained by Todd Pletcher.

Of the ten horses in the 20-to-1 group, only two had over-estimated popularity on the morning line: EVER SO LUCKY and LIAISON. One could understand Battaglia’s support of the Sheppard-trained EVER SO LUCKY since the horse appears to like the Louisville track surface and is graded stakes placed. However, in the tug-o-war between the recent DNF of the Baffert-trained LIAISON and the blind faith many handicappers have in Bob Baffert, Battaglia opted in the wrong direction. ‘DID NOT FINISH’ scares a whole lot of players especially when there has been a subsequent published workout.

Of the four horses in the 30-to-1 group, Battaglia only overestimated the support on one runner, ROUSING SERMON. He can be hardly be faulted for expecting America to support a hall of fame trainer with a runner who has the oftened loved SILKY SULLIVAN running style exhibited in the second place finish in the grade I Cash Call Hollywood Futurity.

While EMPIRE WAY’s projected rank and actual rank may appear to be a bad prediction, it is really a push. Battaglia’s line essentially predicted that the runner would receive the support of 2% of the pool when he actually received 3% of the pool. In a field of twenty-four options being plus or minus one percent is more than acceptable — it is commendable.

All in all, Mike Battaglia did a remarkable job in predicting the early support for these Kentucky Derby nominees.

*- DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to insure the correctness of the above data, this blog and its author assumes no liability for any mistakes in the above information.

2/12 Update: Juvenile Graded Stakes Earnings

admin — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 17:56:56 +0000

Preference criteria for entries into the Triple Crown events including the Kentucky Derby are based upon a runner’s lifetime Graded Stakes Earnings.

The list below is the current top 323 earners for the sophomores through Saturday’s Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes. The top 24 (20 runners and 4 AE’s for the Kentucky Derby) have not changed since last week.

RANK* HORSE GRADED $

My Miss Aurelia (f) $1,350,000
Hansen $1,160,000
Union Rags $830,000
Stephanie’s Kitten (f) $800,446
Sabercat $600,000
Wrote (IRE) $540,000
Weemissfrankie (f) $522,120
Grace Hall (f) $510,000
Creative Cause $488,000
Dullahan $375,000
Liaison $375,000
Now I Know (f) $300,000
Killer Graces (f) $266,200
Excaper $240,736
Algorithms $240,000
Stopshoppingmaria (f) $240,000
Basmati $220,000
On Fire Baby (f) $211,729
Drill $210,000
Self Preservation (f) $183,040
Alpha $180,000
Majestic City $170,000
Rousing Sermon $164,000
Prospective $155,452
Finale $153,345
Northern Passion (f) $153,345
I’ll Have Another $151,000
Currency Swap $150,000
Sweet Cat (f) $129,000
Animal Spirits $120,000
Battle Hardened $120,000
Broadway’s Alibi (f) $120,000
Brother Francis $120,000
Disposablepleasure (f) $120,000
Millionreasonswhy (f) $120,000
O’Prado Again $120,000
Charm the Maker (f) $116,400
Mr. Bowling $115,848
Jack’s in the Deck $105,000
Gemologist $103,855
Longview Drive $102,000
Inny Minnie (f) $100,000
Farraaj (IRE) $99,000
Take Charge Indy $98,400
Vexor $91,000
Mighty Caroline (f) $90,000
Overdriven $90,000
Say a Novena (f) $90,000
Somali Lemonade (f) $90,000
State of Play $90,000
Thunder Moccasin $90,000
Empire Way $85,000
Trinniberg $84,500
Georgie’s Angel (f) $84,234
Heart of Destiny (f) $81,734
Sacristy (f) $80,000
Motor City $78,383
Optimizer $78,375
Lucky Chappy (IRE) $75,000
Shared Property $73,700
Flashy Lassie (f) $69,145
Willa B Awesome (f) $69,000
Exfactor $67,748
Sky Kingdom $64,000
She Digs Me $63,000
Believe You Can (f) $61,734
Seven Lively Sins $61,697
Power World $61,354
More Than Love (f) $60,000
Out of Bounds $60,000
Pure Gossip (f) $60,000
Questing (f) $60,000
Shkspeare Shaliyah $60,000
So Brilliant $60,000
Stoney Fleece $60,000
Up (IRE) (f) $60,000
And Why Not (f) $58,253
Rocket Twentyone (f) $57,600
Candrea (f) $55,000
Judy the Beauty (f) $50,000
My Adonis $50,000
Lady Pecan (f) $49,906
Emerald Gold (f) $45,000
Yvete Sangalo (f) $45,000
Dayatthespa (f) $40,892
Speightscity $40,800
Putthebabiesdown (f) $40,000
Souper Speedy $40,000
Wildcat’s Smile (f) $40,000
Lockout $38,484
Hard Not to Like (f) $35,112
Z Dager $35,000
Laurie’s Rocket $34,500
Ever So Lucky $33,502
Goldrush Girl (f) $32,177
Blingo $30,000
Bourbonstreetgirl (f) $30,000
Coalport $30,000
Il Villano $30,000
Miss Netta (f) $30,000
Right to Vote $30,000
River Kiss (f) $30,000
Ruler of Dubai $30,000
Stat $30,000
Team Six $30,000
Brigand $29,000
True Feelings (f) $27,500
Handsome Mike $26,000
Daddy Nose Best $25,558
Big Blue Nation $25,000
Black Rhino $22,500
Jagati $22,500
Tarpy’s Goal $22,500
Five Star Momma (f) $21,423
Devious Intent (f) $20,000
El Padrino $20,000
Fourt Loudon $20,000
Frolic’s Revenge (f) $20,000
How Do I Win $20,000
Kitten’s Kid $20,000
Mystic Mama (f) $20,000
Perennial Song (f) $20,000
Reveron $20,000
Secret Circle $20,000
Starship Flair (f) $20,000
Tiger Walk $20,000
Bluedacious $19,242
Glinda the Good (f) $18,120
Heleonor Rugby (f) $18,000
Mighty Monsoon $18,000
Our Entourage $18,000
Essence of Bubbles (f) $17,280
Night Tide $17,000
Timely Tally $16,751
Back Spin (f) $16,088
Maritimer $15,335
Bellacourt (f) $15,000
Dancing Anna (f) $15,000
Gun Boat $15,000
Holiday Soiree (f) $15,000
Indian Evening $15,000
My Gi Gi (f) $15,000
Quick Wit $15,000
Seeker $15,000
Takes the Gold $15,000
Wild Truffles (f) $15,000
Spirited Miss (f) $14,472
Golden History (f) $12,882
Battle Force $12,000
Hodge $12,000
Island Paradise (f) $12,000
Isn’t He Clever $12,000
Lady of Shamrock (f) $12,000
Silver Max $12,000
Splendiferous $12,000
Bet to Win (f) $11,734
Ann of the Dance (f) $11,560
Chalybeate Springs $11,032
Quick Flip (f) $11,000
Friscan $10,927
Queen Teuta (f) $10,711
Knock Rock $10,500
Delightful Magic (f) $10,000
Done Talking $10,000
Dougs Buddy $10,000
Fantastic Song $10,000
Force de La Nature $10,000
Jake Mo $10,000
New Wave (f) $10,000
Ravelo’s Boy $10,000
Tiz Moe $10,000
Wee Party (f) $10,000
Yara (f) $10,000
Spring Eclipse (f) $9,194
Invocation $9,000
Spare Change (f) $9,000
Sum of the Parts $8,463
Aubby K (f) $8,063
Consortium $8,000
No Spin $7,520
Banner Bill $7,500
Good Looking Girl (f) $7,500
Large Kaufy $7,500
Wildcat Creek $7,500
Fine $7,206
My Due Process (f) $7,090
Dan and Sheila $7,000
Fox Rules $7,000
Managed Account $6,800
Venetian Sonata (f) $6,760
Culotte (f) $6,093
Anna Sophia (f) $6,000
Brown Eyed Nance (f) $6,000
Captain Webb $6,000
Harbor Mist (f) $6,000
King Kid $6,000
Motown Men $6,000
Neck ‘n Neck $6,000
Pend Oreille $6,000
Sheer Talent $6,000
Your Special Day (f) $6,000
Atigun $5,025
Citizen Adocate (f) $5,000
Colormesaichi (f) $5,000
Gospel Gal (f) $5,000
Gypsy Robin (f) $5,000
Loukas (f) $5,000
Royal Bonnie (f) $5,000
Yeardley (f) $5,000
Customer Base (f) $4,826
Always Here Too (f) $4,800
King of England $4,618
Defy Gravity (f) $4,500
Getupwiththesun $4,500
Grace for Grace (f) $4,500
Hannibal Lecter $4,500
Moonrush $4,500
Good Deed (f) $4,000
Hakama $4,000
Burn the Mortgage $3,567
Hero of Order $3,500
Tippy Toes (f) $3,213
Jomelo $3,067
Making Amends $3,067
Secret Consultant $3,067
Alydarla (f) $3,000
Awesome Belle (f) $3,000
Hook It Up (f) $3,000
Italo $3,000
Made to Love Her (f) $3,000
Select Cat (f) $3,000
Take It Inside (f) $3,000
Threeanddonedan $3,000
Hogy $2,760
Seen It All Before $2,309
Sky Dreamer (f) $2,045
Ten K Cat (f) $2,045
Bataha (f) $2,000
Devil in Disguise $2,000
Hierro $2,000
Muchos Besos $2,000
Regal Betty (f) $2,000
Soft Whisper (f) $2,000
Super Candy $2,000
Vukovar (f) $2,000
Bear’s Taurus $1,924
Bwana Be Gone $1,924
Africanist $1,782
Cyber Secret $1,782
Mr. Prankster $1,782
Saint Honore $1,782
Seve $1,782
Alexander Thegreat $1,750
Capetown Devil $1,750
Hammers Terro $1,750
Ted’s Folly $1,750
Taxi Dancer (f) $1,734
Jamraa (f) $1,694
Karlovy Vary (f) $1,694
Baffle Me (f) $1,667
Born Bullish (f) $1,667
Deliburnsky $1,500
High Heat $1,500
Scallion $1,500
Space Traveler $1,500
Voodoo Daddy $1,500
Bonaparte $1,115
Hot Speed $1,115
Hollywood Script $1,107
Purely Determined $1,107
Shocktime (f) $1,093
Ancil $1,000
Cheerleader (f) $1,000
Clip the Coupons $1,000
Coyote Breeze (f) $1,000
Danger Storm $1,000
Dream Pegasus (f) $1,000
E Valentino $1,000
Egg Drop (f) $1,000
Fairy Cat $1,000
Gung Ho $1,000
Heiko $1,000
Hunt Crossing $1,000
Musical Flair $1,000
Personal Interest $1,000
Priceless Shore $1,000
Saturday Launch $1,000
Space Race $1,000
Sportswriter $1,000
Squid $1,000
Struck It Lucky (f) $1,000
Tu Endie Wei (f) $1,000
Twelve Hundred $1,000
Two Months Rent $1,000
Ville $1,000
Yorona (f) $1,000
Awalkinthemoonlite (f) $800
Captivating Lass (f) $800
Dreaming of Cara $800
Indyniable (f) $800
Lady Cohiba (f) $800
Mucho Mas Macho $800
Scatter a Star $800
Stephanoatsee $800
Alaura Michele (f) $667
Salsa Mambo (f) $667
Tanglewood Tale (f) $666
Curfew Tower $500
Downtown Driggs $500
Gold Megalith $500
Monastic $500
Smart Ellis $500
Bless My Halo $429
Charming Vixen $429
Falconess (f) $429
Honey Talk (f) $429
Piskacha (f) $429
Quick Silver Song (f) $429
Soonerette (f) $429
Evil Kitten (f) $409
Quality Lass (f) $409
St Pancras (f) $409
Welcome Dance (f) $409

(f) – denotes Filly

Babies On The Horizon

admin — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 21:00:46 +0000

In North American thoroughbred flat racing, the earliest that runners may debut is March 1st of their two-year old season. Additionally, some jurisdictions require that the participants are 24-months old. Every year race tracks in California and New Mexico provide the first opportunities for the juveniles to race.

This year the first two-year old race in the condition books is at Sunland Park for Saturday, March 3rd at the distance of 2 furlongs and for Sunday, March 4th at the distance of 4 1/2 furlongs.

Starting with the 2009 crop, I began studying a foal’s precocity as it may relate to pedigree. The Precocity Index Project will be my attempt to assign a number to a sire and/or dam based upon how early their progeny break their maiden. The ‘pi’ – precocity index – will only attempt to measure early development and not any other trait such as quality. The ‘pi’ is on a scale of zero to 1500. The lower the number the more precocious the progeny are. Higher numbers will report slow developers. (Note: slow developers definitely do not mean poor runners, e.g. ZENYATTA broke her maiden later in her three-year old season).

On March 1st, I will make available a list of sires and their precocity indices.* I will strive to include on the list each sire of the entrants in the day’s baby races. A sire’s precocity index will change with each of his progeny’s maiden victories. The published list will be periodically updated. Throughout the 2012 juvenile season, I will track the performance of the index in predicting the winners of the baby races.

In March 2009, two sires, GHOSTLY MOVES and RIO VERDE, produced two-year old winners. GHOSTLY MOVES’s 2009 crop includes 4 maiden winners to date. GHOSTLY MOVES’s precocity index is currently 132. RIO VERDE’s crop has had 3 maiden winners to date. RIO VERDE’s precocity index is currently 245.

While we are still collecting data to validate the statistics, we will make an early prediction that all of the juvenile winners in this upcoming March will be produced by sires with a sub-300 precocity index.

(For the purpose of this study maiden winners will only reflect those which broke their maidens in the following types of races: maiden special weights, maiden claiming, and maiden optional claiming. At this time, the statistics will not include the accomplishments of those which broke their maiden in other classes of races.)

2/4 Graded Stakes Earnings Update

admin — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 01:20:44 +0000

Preference criteria for entries into the Triple Crown events including the Kentucky Derby are based upon a runner’s lifetime Graded Stakes Earnings.

The list below is the current top 319 earners for the sophomores through Saturday’s graded stakes from Aqueduct, Santa Anita, and Tampa Bay Downs.

RANK* HORSE GRADED $

My Miss Aurelia (f) $1,350,000
Hansen $1,160,000
Union Rags $830,000
Stephanie’s Kitten (f) $800,446
Sabercat $600,000
Wrote (IRE) $540,000
Weemissfrankie (f) $522,120
Grace Hall (f) $510,000
Creative Cause $488,000
Dullahan $375,000
Liaison $375,000
Now I Know (f) $300,000
Killer Graces (f) $266,200
Excaper $240,736
Algorithms $240,000
Stopshoppingmaria (f) $240,000
Basmati $220,000
On Fire Baby (f) $211,729
Drill $210,000
Self Preservation (f) $183,040
Alpha $180,000
Majestic City $170,000
Rousing Sermon $164,000
Prospective $155,452
Finale $153,345
Northern Passion (f) $153,345
I’ll Have Another $151,000
Currency Swap $150,000
Sweet Cat (f) $129,000
Animal Spirits $120,000
Battle Hardened $120,000
Broadway’s Alibi (f) $120,000
Brother Francis $120,000
Disposablepleasure (f) $120,000
Millionreasonswhy (f) $120,000
O’Prado Again $120,000
Charm the Maker (f) $116,400
Mr. Bowling $115,848
Jack’s in the Deck $105,000
Gemologist $103,855
Longview Drive $102,000
Inny Minnie (f) $100,000
Farraaj (IRE) $99,000
Take Charge Indy $98,400
Vexor $91,000
Mighty Caroline (f) $90,000
Overdriven $90,000
Say a Novena (f) $90,000
Somali Lemonade (f) $90,000
State of Play $90,000
Empire Way $85,000
Trinniberg $84,500
Georgie’s Angel (f) $84,234
Heart of Destiny (f) $81,734
Sacristy (f) $80,000
Motor City $78,383
Optimizer $78,375
Lucky Chappy (IRE) $75,000
Shared Property $73,700
Flashy Lassie (f) $69,145
Willa B Awesome (f) $69,000
Exfactor $67,748
Sky Kingdom $64,000
She Digs Me $63,000
Believe You Can (f) $61,734
Seven Lively Sins $61,697
Power World $61,354
More Than Love (f) $60,000
Out of Bounds $60,000
Pure Gossip (f) $60,000
Questing (f) $60,000
Shkspeare Shaliyah $60,000
So Brilliant $60,000
Stoney Fleece $60,000
Up (IRE) (f) $60,000
And Why Not (f) $58,253
Rocket Twentyone (f) $57,600
Candrea (f) $55,000
Judy the Beauty (f) $50,000
My Adonis $50,000
Lady Pecan (f) $49,906
Emerald Gold (f) $45,000
Yvete Sangalo (f) $45,000
Dayatthespa (f) $40,892
Speightscity $40,800
Putthebabiesdown (f) $40,000
Souper Speedy $40,000
Wildcat’s Smile (f) $40,000
Lockout $38,484
Hard Not to Like (f) $35,112
Z Dager $35,000
Laurie’s Rocket $34,500
Ever So Lucky $33,502
Goldrush Girl (f) $32,177
Blingo $30,000
Bourbonstreetgirl (f) $30,000
Coalport $30,000
Miss Netta (f) $30,000
Right to Vote $30,000
River Kiss (f) $30,000
Ruler of Dubai $30,000
Stat $30,000
Team Six $30,000
Brigand $29,000
True Feelings (f) $27,500
Handsome Mike $26,000
Daddy Nose Best $25,558
Big Blue Nation $25,000
Black Rhino $22,500
Jagati $22,500
Five Star Momma (f) $21,423
Devious Intent (f) $20,000
El Padrino $20,000
Fourt Loudon $20,000
Frolic’s Revenge (f) $20,000
How Do I Win $20,000
Kitten’s Kid $20,000
Mystic Mama (f) $20,000
Perennial Song (f) $20,000
Reveron $20,000
Secret Circle $20,000
Starship Flair (f) $20,000
Tiger Walk $20,000
Bluedacious $19,242
Glinda the Good (f) $18,120
Heleonor Rugby (f) $18,000
Mighty Monsoon $18,000
Our Entourage $18,000
Tarpy’s Goal $18,000
Essence of Bubbles (f) $17,280
Night Tide $17,000
Timely Tally $16,751
Back Spin (f) $16,088
Maritimer $15,335
Bellacourt (f) $15,000
Dancing Anna (f) $15,000
Gun Boat $15,000
Holiday Soiree (f) $15,000
Indian Evening $15,000
My Gi Gi (f) $15,000
Seeker $15,000
Takes the Gold $15,000
Wild Truffles (f) $15,000
Spirited Miss (f) $14,472
Golden History (f) $12,882
Battle Force $12,000
Hodge $12,000
Island Paradise (f) $12,000
Isn’t He Clever $12,000
Lady of Shamrock (f) $12,000
Silver Max $12,000
Splendiferous $12,000
Bet to Win (f) $11,734
Ann of the Dance (f) $11,560
Chalybeate Springs $11,032
Quick Flip (f) $11,000
Friscan $10,927
Queen Teuta (f) $10,711
Knock Rock $10,500
Delightful Magic (f) $10,000
Done Talking $10,000
Dougs Buddy $10,000
Fantastic Song $10,000
Force de La Nature $10,000
Jake Mo $10,000
New Wave (f) $10,000
Ravelo’s Boy $10,000
Tiz Moe $10,000
Wee Party (f) $10,000
Yara (f) $10,000
Spring Eclipse (f) $9,194
Invocation $9,000
Spare Change (f) $9,000
Sum of the Parts $8,463
Aubby K (f) $8,063
Consortium $8,000
No Spin $7,520
Banner Bill $7,500
Good Looking Girl (f) $7,500
Large Kaufy $7,500
Fine $7,206
My Due Process (f) $7,090
Dan and Sheila $7,000
Fox Rules $7,000
Managed Account $6,800
Venetian Sonata (f) $6,760
Culotte (f) $6,093
Anna Sophia (f) $6,000
Brown Eyed Nance (f) $6,000
Captain Webb $6,000
Harbor Mist (f) $6,000
King Kid $6,000
Motown Men $6,000
Neck ‘n Neck $6,000
Pend Oreille $6,000
Sheer Talent $6,000
Your Special Day (f) $6,000
Atigun $5,025
Citizen Adocate (f) $5,000
Colormesaichi (f) $5,000
Gospel Gal (f) $5,000
Gypsy Robin (f) $5,000
Loukas (f) $5,000
Royal Bonnie (f) $5,000
Yeardley (f) $5,000
Customer Base (f) $4,826
Always Here Too (f) $4,800
King of England $4,618
Defy Gravity (f) $4,500
Getupwiththesun $4,500
Grace for Grace (f) $4,500
Hannibal Lecter $4,500
Moonrush $4,500
Good Deed (f) $4,000
Hakama $4,000
Burn the Mortgage $3,567
Hero of Order $3,500
Tippy Toes (f) $3,213
Jomelo $3,067
Making Amends $3,067
Secret Consultant $3,067
Alydarla (f) $3,000
Awesome Belle (f) $3,000
Hook It Up (f) $3,000
Italo $3,000
Made to Love Her (f) $3,000
Select Cat (f) $3,000
Take It Inside (f) $3,000
Threeanddonedan $3,000
Hogy $2,760
Seen It All Before $2,309
Sky Dreamer (f) $2,045
Ten K Cat (f) $2,045
Bataha (f) $2,000
Devil in Disguise $2,000
Hierro $2,000
Muchos Besos $2,000
Regal Betty (f) $2,000
Soft Whisper (f) $2,000
Super Candy $2,000
Vukovar (f) $2,000
Bear’s Taurus $1,924
Bwana Be Gone $1,924
Africanist $1,782
Cyber Secret $1,782
Mr. Prankster $1,782
Saint Honore $1,782
Seve $1,782
Alexander Thegreat $1,750
Capetown Devil $1,750
Hammers Terro $1,750
Ted’s Folly $1,750
Taxi Dancer (f) $1,734
Jamraa (f) $1,694
Karlovy Vary (f) $1,694
Baffle Me (f) $1,667
Born Bullish (f) $1,667
Deliburnsky $1,500
High Heat $1,500
Scallion $1,500
Space Traveler $1,500
Voodoo Daddy $1,500
Bonaparte $1,115
Hot Speed $1,115
Hollywood Script $1,107
Purely Determined $1,107
Shocktime (f) $1,093
Ancil $1,000
Cheerleader (f) $1,000
Clip the Coupons $1,000
Coyote Breeze (f) $1,000
Danger Storm $1,000
Dream Pegasus (f) $1,000
E Valentino $1,000
Egg Drop (f) $1,000
Fairy Cat $1,000
Gung Ho $1,000
Heiko $1,000
Hunt Crossing $1,000
Musical Flair $1,000
Personal Interest $1,000
Priceless Shore $1,000
Saturday Launch $1,000
Space Race $1,000
Sportswriter $1,000
Squid $1,000
Struck It Lucky (f) $1,000
Tu Endie Wei (f) $1,000
Twelve Hundred $1,000
Two Months Rent $1,000
Ville $1,000
Yorona (f) $1,000
Awalkinthemoonlite (f) $800
Captivating Lass (f) $800
Dreaming of Cara $800
Indyniable (f) $800
Lady Cohiba (f) $800
Mucho Mas Macho $800
Scatter a Star $800
Stephanoatsee $800
Alaura Michele (f) $667
Salsa Mambo (f) $667
Tanglewood Tale (f) $666
Curfew Tower $500
Downtown Driggs $500
Gold Megalith $500
Monastic $500
Smart Ellis $500
Bless My Halo $429
Charming Vixen $429
Falconess (f) $429
Honey Talk (f) $429
Piskacha (f) $429
Quick Silver Song (f) $429
Soonerette (f) $429
Evil Kitten (f) $409
Quality Lass (f) $409
St Pancras (f) $409
Welcome Dance (f) $409

(f) – denotes Filly

Soph. Graded Earnings Update

admin — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 21:37:28 +0000

Preference criteria for entries into the Kentucky Derby are based upon a runner’s lifetime Graded Stakes Earnings.

The list below is the current top 310 earners for the sophomores through Sunday’s graded stakes from Gulfstream.

RANK HORSE GRADED $

My Miss Aurelia (f) $1,350,000
Hansen $1,160,000
Union Rags $830,000
Stephanie’s Kitten (f) $800,446
Sabercat $600,000
Wrote (IRE) $540,000
Weemissfrankie (f) $522,120
Grace Hall (f) $510,000
Creative Cause $488,000
Dullahan $375,000
Liaison $375,000
Now I Know (f) $300,000
Killer Graces (f) $266,200
Excaper $240,736
Stopshoppingmaria (f) $240,000
Algorithms $240,000
Basmati $220,000
On Fire Baby (f) $211,729
Drill $210,000
Self Preservation (f) $183,040
Majestic City $170,000
Finale $153,345
Northern Passion (f) $153,345
Currency Swap $150,000
Rousing Sermon $140,000
Sweet Cat (f) $129,000
Animal Spirits $120,000
Brother Francis $120,000
Disposablepleasure (f) $120,000
Millionreasonswhy (f) $120,000
O’Prado Again $120,000
Broadway’s Alibi (f) $120,000
Charm the Maker (f) $116,400
Mr. Bowling $115,848
Prospective $115,452
Jack’s in the Deck $105,000
Gemologist $103,855
Longview Drive $102,000
Inny Minnie (f) $100,000
Farraaj (IRE) $99,000
Take Charge Indy $98,400
Vexor $91,000
Mighty Caroline (f) $90,000
Overdriven $90,000
Somali Lemonade (f) $90,000
State of Play $90,000
Say a Novena (f) $90,000
Trinniberg $84,500
Georgie’s Angel (f) $84,234
Heart of Destiny (f) $81,734
Sacristy (f) $80,000
Motor City $78,383
Optimizer $78,375
Lucky Chappy (IRE) $75,000
Shared Property $73,700
Flashy Lassie (f) $69,145
Willa B Awesome (f) $69,000
Exfactor $67,748
She Digs Me $63,000
Believe You Can (f) $61,734
Seven Lively Sins $61,697
Power World $61,354
Alpha $60,000
More Than Love (f) $60,000
Out of Bounds $60,000
Pure Gossip (f) $60,000
Questing (f) $60,000
Shkspeare Shaliyah $60,000
Sky Kingdom $60,000
So Brilliant $60,000
Stoney Fleece $60,000
Up (IRE) (f) $60,000
And Why Not (f) $58,253
Rocket Twentyone (f) $57,600
Candrea (f) $55,000
Judy the Beauty (f) $50,000
My Adonis $50,000
Lady Pecan (f) $49,906
Emerald Gold (f) $45,000
Empire Way $45,000
Yvete Sangalo (f) $45,000
Dayatthespa (f) $40,892
Putthebabiesdown (f) $40,000
Souper Speedy $40,000
Wildcat’s Smile (f) $40,000
Lockout $38,484
Hard Not to Like (f) $35,112
Z Dager $35,000
Laurie’s Rocket $34,500
Ever So Lucky $33,502
Goldrush Girl (f) $32,177
I’ll Have Another $31,000
Blingo $30,000
Bourbonstreetgirl (f) $30,000
Coalport $30,000
Miss Netta (f) $30,000
Right to Vote $30,000
River Kiss (f) $30,000
Ruler of Dubai $30,000
Stat $30,000
Team Six $30,000
Brigand $29,000
True Feelings (f) $27,500
Handsome Mike $26,000
Daddy Nose Best $25,558
Big Blue Nation $25,000
Black Rhino $22,500
Jagati $22,500
Five Star Momma (f) $21,423
Devious Intent (f) $20,000
El Padrino $20,000
Frolic’s Revenge (f) $20,000
Kitten’s Kid $20,000
Mystic Mama (f) $20,000
Perennial Song (f) $20,000
Secret Circle $20,000
Starship Flair (f) $20,000
Fourt Loudon $20,000
Bluedacious $19,242
Glinda the Good (f) $18,120
Heleonor Rugby (f) $18,000
Mighty Monsoon $18,000
Our Entourage $18,000
Tarpy’s Goal $18,000
Essence of Bubbles (f) $17,280
Night Tide $17,000
Timely Tally $16,751
Back Spin (f) $16,088
Maritimer $15,335
Bellacourt (f) $15,000
Dancing Anna (f) $15,000
Gun Boat $15,000
Holiday Soiree (f) $15,000
Indian Evening $15,000
My Gi Gi (f) $15,000
Seeker $15,000
Takes the Gold $15,000
Wild Truffles (f) $15,000
Spirited Miss (f) $14,472
Golden History (f) $12,882
Battle Force $12,000
Hodge $12,000
Island Paradise (f) $12,000
Splendiferous $12,000
Silver Max $12,000
Lady of Shamrock (f) $12,000
Bet to Win (f) $11,734
Ann of the Dance (f) $11,560
Chalybeate Springs $11,032
Quick Flip (f) $11,000
Friscan $10,927
Queen Teuta (f) $10,711
Knock Rock $10,500
Delightful Magic (f) $10,000
Done Talking $10,000
Dougs Buddy $10,000
Fantastic Song $10,000
Force de La Nature $10,000
Jake Mo $10,000
New Wave (f) $10,000
Tiz Moe $10,000
Wee Party (f) $10,000
Yara (f) $10,000
Spring Eclipse (f) $9,194
Invocation $9,000
Spare Change (f) $9,000
Sum of the Parts $8,463
Aubby K (f) $8,063
Consortium $8,000
No Spin $7,520
Banner Bill $7,500
Good Looking Girl (f) $7,500
Large Kaufy $7,500
Fine $7,206
My Due Process (f) $7,090
Dan and Sheila $7,000
Managed Account $6,800
Venetian Sonata (f) $6,760
Culotte (f) $6,093
Anna Sophia (f) $6,000
Brown Eyed Nance (f) $6,000
Captain Webb $6,000
Harbor Mist (f) $6,000
Motown Men $6,000
Pend Oreille $6,000
Sheer Talent $6,000
Your Special Day (f) $6,000
Atigun $5,025
Citizen Adocate (f) $5,000
Colormesaichi (f) $5,000
Gospel Gal (f) $5,000
Gypsy Robin (f) $5,000
Loukas (f) $5,000
Royal Bonnie (f) $5,000
Yeardley (f) $5,000
Customer Base (f) $4,826
Always Here Too (f) $4,800
King of England $4,618
Defy Gravity (f) $4,500
Getupwiththesun $4,500
Grace for Grace (f) $4,500
Hannibal Lecter $4,500
Moonrush $4,500
Good Deed (f) $4,000
Burn the Mortgage $3,567
Hero of Order $3,500
Tippy Toes (f) $3,213
Jomelo $3,067
Making Amends $3,067
Secret Consultant $3,067
Alydarla (f) $3,000
Awesome Belle (f) $3,000
Fox Rules $3,000
Hook It Up (f) $3,000
Italo $3,000
Made to Love Her (f) $3,000
Select Cat (f) $3,000
Take It Inside (f) $3,000
Threeanddonedan $3,000
Hogy $2,760
Seen It All Before $2,309
Sky Dreamer (f) $2,045
Ten K Cat (f) $2,045
Devil in Disguise $2,000
Hierro $2,000
Muchos Besos $2,000
Regal Betty (f) $2,000
Soft Whisper (f) $2,000
Super Candy $2,000
Vukovar (f) $2,000
Bataha (f) $2,000
Bear’s Taurus $1,924
Bwana Be Gone $1,924
Africanist $1,782
Cyber Secret $1,782
Mr. Prankster $1,782
Saint Honore $1,782
Seve $1,782
Alexander Thegreat $1,750
Capetown Devil $1,750
Hammers Terro $1,750
Ted’s Folly $1,750
Taxi Dancer (f) $1,734
Jamraa (f) $1,694
Karlovy Vary (f) $1,694
Baffle Me (f) $1,667
Born Bullish (f) $1,667
Deliburnsky $1,500
High Heat $1,500
Scallion $1,500
Space Traveler $1,500
Voodoo Daddy $1,500
Bonaparte $1,115
Hot Speed $1,115
Hollywood Script $1,107
Purely Determined $1,107
Shocktime (f) $1,093
Ancil $1,000
Cheerleader (f) $1,000
Clip the Coupons $1,000
Coyote Breeze (f) $1,000
Danger Storm $1,000
Dream Pegasus (f) $1,000
E Valentino $1,000
Egg Drop (f) $1,000
Fairy Cat $1,000
Gung Ho $1,000
Heiko $1,000
Hunt Crossing $1,000
Musical Flair $1,000
Personal Interest $1,000
Priceless Shore $1,000
Saturday Launch $1,000
Space Race $1,000
Sportswriter $1,000
Squid $1,000
Struck It Lucky (f) $1,000
Tu Endie Wei (f) $1,000
Twelve Hundred $1,000
Two Months Rent $1,000
Ville $1,000
Yorona (f) $1,000
Awalkinthemoonlite (f) $800
Captivating Lass (f) $800
Dreaming of Cara $800
Indyniable (f) $800
Lady Cohiba (f) $800
Mucho Mas Macho $800
Scatter a Star $800
Speightscity $800
Stephanoatsee $800
Alaura Michele (f) $667
Salsa Mambo (f) $667
Tanglewood Tale (f) $666
Curfew Tower $500
Downtown Driggs $500
Gold Megalith $500
Monastic $500
Smart Ellis $500
Bless My Halo $429
Charming Vixen $429
Falconess (f) $429
Honey Talk (f) $429
Piskacha (f) $429
Quick Silver Song (f) $429
Soonerette (f) $429
Evil Kitten (f) $409
Quality Lass (f) $409
St Pancras (f) $409
Welcome Dance (f) $409

(f) – denotes Filly

Sophomore Graded Stakes Earnings

admin — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 02:07:25 +0000

Preference criteria for entries into the Kentucky Derby are based upon a runner’s lifetime Graded Stakes Earnings.

The list below is the current top 100 earners for the sophomores through the LeComte Stakes run at the Fair Grounds earlier today.

RANK HORSE GRADED $
1 My Miss Aurelia (f) $1,350,000
2 Hansen $1,080,000
3 Union Rags $830,000
4 Stephanie’s Kitten (f) $800,446
5 Sabercat $600,000
6 Wrote (IRE) $540,000
7 Weemissfrankie (f) $522,120
8 Grace Hall (f) $510,000
9 Creative Cause $488,000
T-10 Dullahan $375,000
T-10 Liaison $375,000
12 Now I Know (f) $300,000
13 Killer Graces (f) $246,200
14 Excaper $240,736
15 Stopshoppingmaria (f) $240,000
16 Basmati $220,000
17 On Fire Baby (f) $211,729
18 Drill $210,000
19 Self Preservation (f) $183,040
20 Majestic City $170,000
21 Finale $153,345
22 Northern Passion (f) $153,345
23 Currency Swap $150,000
24 Rousing Sermon $140,000
25 Sweet Cat (f) $129,000
T-26 Animal Spirits $120,000
T-26 Brother Francis $120,000
T-26 Disposablepleasure (f) $120,000
T-26 Millionreasonswhy (f) $120,000
T-26 O’Prado Again $120,000
31 Mr. Bowling $115,848
32 Prospective $115,452
33 Charm the Maker (f) $110,400
34 Jack’s in the Deck $105,000
35 Gemologist $103,855
36 Longview Drive $102,000
37 Inny Minnie (f) $100,000
38 Farraaj (IRE) $99,000
39 Take Charge Indy $98,400
40 Vexor $91,000
T-41 Mighty Caroline (f) $90,000
T-41 Overdriven $90,000
T-41 Somali Lemonade (f) $90,000
T-41 State of Play $90,000
45 Trinniberg $84,500
46 Georgie’s Angel (f) $84,234
47 Heart of Destiny (f) $81,734
48 Motor City $78,383
49 Optimizer $78,375
50 Lucky Chappy (IRE) $75,000
51 Shared Property $73,700
52 Flashy Lassie (f) $69,145
53 Exfactor $67,748
54 She Digs Me $63,000
55 Believe You Can (f) $61,734
56 Seven Lively Sins $61,697
57 Power World $61,354
T-58 Alpha $60,000
T-58 More Than Love (f) $60,000
T-58 Out of Bounds $60,000
T-58 Pure Gossip (f) $60,000
T-58 Questing (f) $60,000
T-58 Sacristy (f) $60,000
T-58 Shkspeare Shaliyah $60,000
T-58 Sky Kingdom $60,000
T-58 So Brilliant $60,000
T-58 Stoney Fleece $60,000
T-58 Up (IRE) (f) $60,000
69 And Why Not (f) $58,253
70 Rocket Twentyone (f) $57,600
71 Candrea (f) $55,000
T-72 Judy the Beauty (f) $50,000
T-72 Say a Novena (f) $50,000
74 Lady Pecan (f) $49,906
T-75 Emerald Gold (f) $45,000
T-75 Empire Way $45,000
T-75 Yvete Sangalo (f) $45,000
78 Dayatthespa (f) $40,892
T-79 Putthebabiesdown (f) $40,000
T-79 Souper Speedy $40,000
T-79 Wildcat’s Smile (f) $40,000
82 Lockout $38,484
83 Hard Not to Like (f) $35,112
84 Z Dager $35,000
85 Laurie’s Rocket $34,500
86 Ever So Lucky $33,502
87 Goldrush Girl (f) $32,177
88 I’ll Have Another $31,000
T-89 Blingo $30,000
T-89 Bourbonstreetgirl (f) $30,000
T-89 Coalport $30,000
T-89 Miss Netta (f) $30,000
T-89 Right to Vote $30,000
T-89 River Kiss (f) $30,000
T-89 Ruler of Dubai $30,000
T-89 Stat $30,000
T-89 Team Six $30,000
98 Brigand $29,000
99 True Feelings (f) $27,500
100 Handsome Mike $26,000

(f) – denotes Filly

CashCall Futurity

admin — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 20:15:35 +0000

The winner of next Saturday’s (17 Dec 2011) Grade I CashCall Futurity will be worth 29-to-1 in the 2012 Kentucky Derby (if past performances are any guide). In the first 30 runnings of the (formerly known) Hollywood Futurity from STALWART to COMMA TO THE TOP, only one victor went on to win the Run For The Roses. The outlier, REAL QUIET, was an underlay at post time odds of 8.4-to-1 on Derby Day. The runner-ups have fared better in the Kentucky Derby by producing three winners: ALYSHEBA, THUNDER GULCH, and GIACOMO.

Profiling the last 30 Futurity winners might point to value in itself. Despite only producing one Derby Winner from its winner circle, the Hollywood Futurity has historically been a very classy race. Historically projected, the odds that the Futurity winner was previously a graded-stakes-winner is 4-to-11. The odds that the winner was only previously graded-stakes-placed is 13-to-2 which is the same odds of the winner having no previous black type entering the race Saturday.

Not surprsingly, the majority of the Futurity wins had been precocious. The odds of winning the Futurity without having broken maiden within the first three starts is 14-to-1 (only FALI TIME-4 and REAL QUIET-7 took more than three starts to become winners). The past 13, 11, and 4 winners broke their maidens respectively in the first, second, and third starts.

The eligibility condition of the winners prior to the running of the Futurity were uneven distibuted between non-winners of one other-than and out-of-conditions. 5 were N1X, 11 were N2X, 5 N3X, 6 N4X, and 3 were out of conditions (all were essential non-winners of five other-than maiden, claiming, or starters). 1-to-5 odds that the winner will not have been elibile for an AN1X prior to Saturday’s contest.

Prior to the race, the winners started an average of 5.2 times ranging from 2 to 9. The winners had garnered an average of 2.7 victories ranging from 1 to 5.

The top three profile traits of the CashCall Futurity winners are:

Previously Graded-Stakes-Placed
Not Eligible for an Other-Than Condition
Broke Maiden Within First Two Starts

Ten (10) of the original nominees from May deadline all meet these three profile traits. This isn’t to say that no one else can win but when entries are drawn on Wednesday look for the following names: BATTLE FORCE, BRIGAND, CREATIVE CAUSE, HANDSOME MIKE, I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, LONGVIEW DRIVE, MAJESTIC CITY, MIGHTY MONSOON, NIGHT TIDE, and SO BRILLIANT. Alternatively, look for a late supplement that meets these guidelines.

Stickman

admin — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 16:11:50 +0000

‘Stickman‘ is slang among some horseplayers for ‘even-money’ odds. Even-money is 1-to-1 odds and often displayed on tote boards with a singular 1 (a.k.a stickman).

Today, Finger Lakes’ morning line maker set the odds for CRAFTY NETTI in Race 6 at even-money — the lone stickman in North America today.

Let’s watch and see how close the post-time odds come to the morning line odds.